Involvement of expert judgement in dynamic model

eBook ISBN: 978-1-315-73697-6In many areas models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. In the dynamic model we use indicators. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. Also this dynamic model enables to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to different new factors. Since the parameters of new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influences on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. Indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using a Bayesian methodGamtos mokslų fakultetasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Evaluation of coefficients for an energy security indicators system

eISBN: 978-1-84564-745-2A sufficient security level of energy supply is vital to the functioning of modern economy since reliable supply is necessary to ensure industrial activities and satisfy population needs. In our previous papers (Lithuanian energy security level assessment based on indicator dependence (2011), Dynamic model for energy security level assessment (2012)) there was constructed a system of energy security indicators for the investigation of the Lithuanian energy security level. A security indicator is a special index which provides numerical values to important issues for the security of energy sector. Further, a dynamic indicator model, which includes interdependencies between indicators, was created for assessment of the energy security level. This model enables us to forecast the Lithuanian energy security level according to different development scenarios, such as a building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, electricity connection between Sweden and Lithuania (NordBalt), etc. Since technical parameters of new objects are not exactly known; their influence on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probabilistic distributions. A security indicators model based on historic data is adjusted by a probabilistic model of LNG or NordBalt influence on indicators using the Bayesian approach. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the coefficients in a dynamic model of indicators for energy security level assessment. These coefficients are calculated in two ways: using algebraic and least square methods. This paper presents the dynamic indicator model, calculation methods of coefficients of indicators equations system and pilot calculationsGamtos mokslų fakultetasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Analysis of De Novo Mutations in Sporadic Cardiomyopathies Emphasizes Their Clinical Relevance and Points to Novel Candidate Genes

The vast majority of cardiomyopathies have an autosomal dominant inheritance; hence, genetic testing is typically offered to patients with a positive family history. A de novo mutation is a new germline mutation not inherited from either parent. The purpose of our study was to search for de novo mutations in patients with cardiomyopathy and no evidence of the disease in the family. Using next-generation sequencing, we analyzed cardiomyopathy genes in 12 probands. In 8 (66.7%), we found de novo variants in known cardiomyopathy genes (TTN, DSP, SCN5A, TNNC1, TPM1, CRYAB, MYH7). In the remaining probands, the analysis was extended to whole exome sequencing in a trio (proband and parents). We found de novo variants in genes that, so far, were not associated with any disease (TRIB3, SLC2A6), a possible disease-causing biallelic genotype (APOBEC gene family), and a de novo mosaic variant without strong evidence of pathogenicity (UNC45A). The high prevalence of de novo mutations emphasizes that genetic screening is also indicated in cases of sporadic cardiomyopathy. Moreover, we have identified novel cardiomyopathy candidate genes that are likely to affect immunological function and/or reaction to stress that could be especially relevant in patients with disease onset associated with infection/infestation