Assessing historical realibility of the agent-based model of the global energy system

This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations followed from calibration results are discussed

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Head and Neck Cancer in Haiti: A Case Series from Hopital de L’Universite d’Etat d’Haiti

This manuscript characterizes the demographics, presenting symptoms and risk factors of patients diagnosed with head and neck cancer at Hopital de L’Universite d’Etat d’Haiti (HUEH), Haiti’s single largest healthcare facility. We conducted a prospective study of patients who presented to HUEH between January and March of 2016 with a lesion of the head or neck suspicious for cancer. All patients who met eligibility criteria received a biopsy, which was interpreted by a Haitian pathologist and when the specimen was available was confirmed by a team of pathologists from Stanford University. A total of 34 participants were identified. The biopsy-confirmed diagnoses were squamous cell carcinoma (n=7), benign (n=7), large cell lymphoma (n=2), ameloblastoma (n=2), pleomorphic adenoma (n=1), and adenocarcinoma (n=1). Fourteen patients were unavailable for biopsy. Patients with head and neck cancer had a mean age of 63.4 years, were majority male (62.5%), waited on average 10.9 months to seek medical attention, and most commonly presented with T-stage 3 or higher disease (87.5%). By characterizing patterns of head and neck cancer at HUEH we hope to facilitate efforts to improve early detection, diagnosis, and management of this important public health condition

A comparison of long-term outcomes of donor lymphocyte infusions and tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with relapsed CML after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

Background Donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) and tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are the 2 standard treatment options in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) that relapses after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), but reports comparing long-term outcomes of these modalities are rare. Patients and Methods A total of 46 patients were treated with either DLI (n = 28) or TKIs (n = 18) during a first relapse of CML after HCT between 1993 and 2012. The stage of relapse was the chronic phase in 37 patients and the advanced phase in 9 patients. All patients had myeloablative conditioning without T-cell depletion during HCT. The median interval between HCT and treatment for relapse was 34 (range, 2-197) months. Results At a median follow-up of 146 and 70 months, respectively, 32% of the DLI group and 33% of the TKI group had died. Six (21%) patients initially treated with DLI received TKIs during a second relapse. In multivariable analyses, DLI was associated with inferior overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio [HR], 37.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-625.4; P =.01), shorter failure-free survival (FFS) (HR, 21.15; 95% CI, 1.8-251; P =.02), higher cumulative incidence of failure (CIF) (HR, 19.5; 95% CI, 1.6-236.5; P =.02), and increased incidence of treatment-induced graft vs. host disease (GVHD) (68% vs. 6%; P =.001). Conclusion TKIs appear better than DLI in chronic-phase relapses after myeloablative non-T-cell-depleted HCT. Outcomes were poor in advanced-phase relapses irrespective of treatment modality