Wisdom of artificial crowds feature selection in untargeted metabolomics: An application to the development of a blood-based diagnostic test for thrombotic myocardial infarction

Introduction: Heart disease remains a leading cause of global mortality. While acute myocardial infarction (colloquially: heart attack), has multiple proximate causes, proximate etiology cannot be determined by a blood-based diagnostic test. We enrolled a suitable patient cohort and conducted a non-targeted quantification of plasma metabolites by mass spectrometry for developing a test that can differentiate between thrombotic MI, non-thrombotic MI, and stable disease. A significant challenge in developing such a diagnostic test is solving the NP-hard problem of feature selection for constructing an optimal statistical classifier. Objective: We employed a Wisdom of Artificial Crowds (WoAC) strategy for solving the feature selection problem and evaluated the accuracy and parsimony of downstream classifiers in comparison with traditional feature selection techniques including the Lasso and selection using Random Forest variable importance criteria. Materials and methods: Artificial Crowd Wisdom was generated via aggregation of the best solutions from independent and diverse genetic algorithm populations that were initialized with bootstrapping and a random subspaces constraint. Results/Conclusions: Strong evidence was observed that a statistical classifier utilizing WoAC feature selection can discriminate between human subjects presenting with thrombotic MI, non-thrombotic MI, and stable Coronary Artery Disease given abundances of selected plasma metabolites. Utilizing the abundances of twenty selected metabolites, a leave-one-out cross-validation estimated misclassification rate of 2.6% was observed. However, the WoAC feature selection strategy did not perform better than the Lasso over the current study

Presence of multiple coronary angiographic characteristics for the diagnosis of acute coronary thrombus

Background: Coronary angiography is frequently employed to aid in the diagnosis of acute coronary thrombosis, but there is limited data to support its efficacy. The aim of the study was to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of five commonly used angiographic characteristics for diagnosis of acute coronary thrombosis: Ambrose complex lesion morphology; spherical, ovoid, or irregular filling defect; abrupt vessel cutoff; intraluminal staining; and any coronary filling defect. Methods: Coronary angiography of 80 acute myocardial infarction or stable coronary artery disease subjects were assessed in blinded fashion, for the presence or absence of five angiographic characteristics. Only lesions of ≥ 10% stenosis were included in the analysis. Presence or absence of each angiographic characteristic was compared between lesions with or without the following study defined outcomes: 1) histologically confirmed thrombus, 2) highly probable thrombus, and 3) highly unlikely thrombus. Results: A total of 323 lesions were evaluated. All studied angiographic characteristics were associated with histologically confirmed and highly probable thrombotic lesions vs. lesions not meeting criteria for these outcomes (p < 0.03), except for complex Ambrose morphology which was not associated with any of the study outcomes (p > 0.05). Specificity for identifying histologically confirmed or highly probable thrombotic lesion was high (92–100%), especially for spherical, ovoid, or irregular filling defect (99–100%) and intraluminal staining (99%). Sensitivity for identification of histologically confirmed or highly probable thrombotic lesions was low for all tested angiographic characteristics (17–60%). Conclusions: The presence of spherical, ovoid, or irregular filling defect or intraluminal staining was highly suggestive of coronary thrombus. However, none of the evaluated angiographic characteristics were useful for ruling out the presence of coronary thrombus. If confirmed in an independent cohort, these angiographic characteristic will be of significant value in confirming the diagnosis of acute coronary thrombosis.

National Trends in Cessation Counseling, Prescription Medication Use, and Associated Costs Among US Adult Cigarette Smokers

Importance: Cigarette smoking is the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. When used separately or in combination, smoking cessation counseling and cessation medications have been associated with increased cessation rates. Objectives: To present trends in self-reported receipt of physician advice to quit smoking and in use of prescription smoking cessation medication along with their associated expenditures among a nationally representative sample of active adult smokers in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants: This repeated cross-sectional study of US adults aged 18 years or older was conducted from July 5, 2018, through August 15, 2018. Data were collected between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2015, from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, an annual US survey of individuals and families, health care personnel, and employers. Participants (n = 29 106) were noninstitutionalized civilians who were randomly drawn from the respondents of the previous year’s National Health Interview Survey. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between sociodemographic factors and receipt of physician cessation advice and use of cessation prescription medication. A 2-part econometric model was used to assess health care expenditures. Main Outcomes and Measures: Trends in self-reported receipt of physician advice to quit and uptake of prescription smoking cessation medications with associated total and out-of-pocket expenditures. Results: The study sample consisted of 29 106 participants, with a mean (SD) age of 57 (10) years and a composition of 13 670 women (47.0%). The results were weighted to provide estimates for 31.2 million active adult cigarette smokers. The proportion of smokers who reported receiving physician advice to quit increased from 60.2% (95% CI, 58.5%-62.0%) in 2006 to 2007 to 64.9% (95% CI, 62.8%-66.9%) in 2014 to 2015, with a P for trend = .001. The odds of receiving physician cessation advice was statistically significantly higher in women (odds ratio [OR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.39-1.59) and lower among uninsured participants (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.52-0.65). Overall, prescription smoking cessation medication use decreased with a corresponding reduction in total expenditures from $146 million (out-of-pocket cost,$46 million) in 2006 to 2007 to $73 million (out-of-pocket cost,$9 million) in 2014 to 2015. Male (odds ratio [OR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66-0.91), uninsured (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.41-0.83), and racial/ethnic minority (African American: OR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.38-0.69]; Asian: OR, 0.31 [95% CI, 0.10-0.93]; Hispanic: OR, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.36-0.78]) participants were less likely to use prescription smoking cessation medications. Conclusions and Relevance: The lower rates of delivery of physician advice to quit smoking and the lower uptake of known prescription smoking cessation medications among men, younger adults, uninsured individuals, racial/ethnic minority groups, and those without smoking-associated comorbidities may be associated with the higher smoking rates among these subgroups despite an all-time low prevalence of smoking in the United States; this finding calls for a more targeted implementation of smoking cessation guidelines

Erectile Dysfunction as an Independent Predictor of Future Cardiovascular Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Vascular erectile dysfunction (ED) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) share common risk factors including obesity, hypertension, metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus, and smoking. ED and CVD also have common underlying pathological mechanisms, including endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, and atherosclerosis.1 Despite these close relationships, the evidence documenting ED as an independent predictor of future CVD events is limited

Friedewald-Estimated Versus Directly Measured Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Treatment Implications

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to compare Friedewald-estimated and directly measured low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) values.BackgroundLDL-C is routinely estimated by the Friedewald equation to guide treatment; however, compatibility with direct measurement has received relatively little scrutiny, especially at levels <70 mg/dl now targeted in high-risk patients.MethodsWe examined 1,340,614 U.S. adults who underwent lipid profiling by vertical spin density gradient ultracentrifugation (Atherotech, Birmingham, Alabama) from 2009 to 2011. Following standard practice, Friedewald LDL-C was not estimated if triglyceride levels were ≥400 mg/dl (n = 30,174), yielding 1,310,440 total patients and 191,333 patients with Friedewald LDL-C <70 mg/dl.ResultsPatients were 59 ± 15 years of age and 52% were women. Lipid distributions closely matched those in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. A greater difference in the Friedewald-estimated versus directly measured LDL-C occurred at lower LDL-C and higher triglyceride levels. If the Friedewald-estimated LDL-C was <70 mg/dl, the median directly measured LDL-C was 9.0 mg/dl higher (5th to 95th percentiles, 1.8 to 15.4 mg/dl) when triglyceride levels were 150 to 199 mg/dl and 18.4 mg/dl higher (5th to 95th percentiles, 6.6 to 36.0 mg/dl) when triglyceride levels were 200 to 399 mg/dl. Of patients with a Friedewald-estimated LDL-C <70 mg/dl, 23% had a directly measured LDL-C ≥70 mg/dl (39% if triglyceride levels were concurrently 150 to 199 mg/dl; 59% if triglyceride levels were concurrently 200 to 399 mg/dl).ConclusionsThe Friedewald equation tends to underestimate LDL-C most when accuracy is most crucial. Especially if triglyceride levels are ≥150 mg/dl, Friedewald estimation commonly classifies LDL-C as <70 mg/dl despite directly measured levels ≥70 mg/dl, and therefore additional evaluation is warranted in high-risk patients

Mitogenomic phylogenetic analyses of the Delphinidae with an emphasis on the Globicephalinae

BACKGROUND: Previous DNA-based phylogenetic studies of the Delphinidae family suggest it has undergone rapid diversification, as characterised by unresolved and poorly supported taxonomic relationships (polytomies) for some of the species within this group. Using an increased amount of sequence data we test between alternative hypotheses of soft polytomies caused by rapid speciation, slow evolutionary rate and/or insufficient sequence data, and hard polytomies caused by simultaneous speciation within this family. Combining the mitogenome sequences of five new and 12 previously published species within the Delphinidae, we used Bayesian and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate the phylogeny from partitioned and unpartitioned mitogenome sequences. Further ad hoc tests were then conducted to estimate the support for alternative topologies. RESULTS: We found high support for all the relationships within our reconstructed phylogenies, and topologies were consistent between the Bayesian and maximum-likelihood trees inferred from partitioned and unpartitioned data. Resolved relationships included the placement of the killer whale (Orcinus orca) as sister taxon to the rest of the Globicephalinae subfamily, placement of the Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus) within the Globicephalinae subfamily, removal of the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) from the Delphininae subfamily and the placement of the rough-toothed dolphin (Steno bredanensis) as sister taxon to the rest of the Delphininae subfamily rather than within the Globicephalinae subfamily. The additional testing of alternative topologies allowed us to reject all other putative relationships, with the exception that we were unable to reject the hypothesis that the relationship between L. albirostris and the Globicephalinae and Delphininae subfamilies was polytomic. CONCLUSION: Despite their rapid diversification, the increased sequence data yielded by mitogenomes enables the resolution of a strongly supported, bifurcating phylogeny, and a chronology of the divergences within the Delphinidae family. This highlights the benefits and potential application of large mitogenome datasets to resolve long-standing phylogenetic uncertainties

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Circulating Prolidase Activity in Patients with Myocardial Infarction

BackgroundCollagen is a major determinant of atherosclerotic plaque stability. Thus, identification of differences in enzymes that regulate collagen integrity could be useful for predicting susceptibility to atherothrombosis or for diagnosing plaque rupture. In this study, we sought to determine whether prolidase, the rate-limiting enzyme of collagen turnover, differs in human subjects with acute myocardial infarction (MI) versus those with stable coronary artery disease (CAD).MethodsWe measured serum prolidase activity in 15 patients with stable CAD and 49 patients with acute MI, of which a subset had clearly defined thrombotic MI (n = 22) or non-thrombotic MI (n = 12). Prolidase activity was compared across study time points (at cardiac catheterization, T0; 6 h after presentation, T6; and at a quiescent follow-up, Tf/u) in acute MI and stable CAD subjects. We performed subgroup analyses to evaluate prolidase activity in subjects presenting with acute thrombotic versus non-thrombotic MI.ResultsAlthough prolidase activity was lower at T0 and T6 versus the quiescent phase in acute MI and stable CAD subjects (p &lt; 0.0001), it was not significantly different between acute MI and stable CAD subjects at any time point (T0, T6, and Tf/u) or between thrombotic and non-thrombotic MI groups. Preliminary data from stratified analyses of a small number of diabetic subjects (n = 8) suggested lower prolidase activity in diabetic acute MI subjects compared with non-diabetic acute MI subjects (p = 0.02).ConclusionCirculating prolidase is not significantly different between patients with acute MI and stable CAD or between patients with thrombotic and non-thrombotic MI. Further studies are required to determine if diabetes significantly affects prolidase activity and how this might relate to the risk of MI