Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Through Rotated Principal Component Analysis of Synoptic-Scale Diagnostic Fields

Forecasts of rapid intensification (RI) within tropical cyclones continue to be a major challenge, primarily due to difficulty in determining the processes that distinguish RI and non-RI storms. In this study, the aim was to identify the most important RI/non-RI discriminatory variables in the North Atlantic basin, not only by level, but also spatial location relative to the tropical cyclone center. These important variables, identified using rotated principal component analysis on one-dimensional and three-dimensional GEFS reforecast base-state variables from 1985 to 2009, led to the identification of diagnostic fields with the largest variability between RI and non-RI events. Hierarchical clustering techniques performed on rotated PC loadings provided map types of RI and non-RI cyclones. Analysis of these composite map types, as well as composite derived fields including divergence, relative vorticity, equivalent potential temperature, static stability, and vertical shear, revealed interesting distinguishing characteristics between RI and non-RI events. Results suggested that vorticity in the mid-levels, divergence in the upper-levels, equivalent potential temperature, and specific humidity play critical roles in successfully discriminating between RI and non-RI storms. These findings give key insights to which variables should be used in developing a prognostic classification scheme to assist with operational forecasts of tropical cyclone RI

Calculating individual lifetime effective risk from initial mean glandular dose arising from the first screening mammogram

Objectives: To use the initial mean glandular dose (MGD) arising from the first screening mammogram to estimate the individual total screening lifetime effective risk. Methods: Organ doses from FFDM screening exposures (craniocaudal and mediolateral oblique for each breast) were measured using a simulated approach, with average breast thickness and adult ATOM phantoms, on 16 FFDM machines. Doses were measured using TLDs accommodated inside the ATOM phantom; examined breast MGD was calculated. Total effective risk during a client’s lifetime was calculated for 150 screening scenarios of different screening commencement ages and frequencies. For each scenario, a set of conversion factors were obtained to convert MGD values into total effective risk. Results: For the 16 FFDM machines, MGD contributes approximately 98% of total effective risk. This contribution is approximately constant for different screening regimes of different screening commencement ages. MGD contribution remains constant but the risk reduced because the radio-sensitivity of all body tissues, including breast tissue, reduces with age. Three sets of conversion factors were obtained for three screening frequencies (annual, biennial, triennial). Three relationship graphs between screening commencement age and total effective risk, as percentages of MGD, were created. Conclusions: Graphical representation of total risk could be an easy way to illustrate the total effective risk during a client’s lifetime. Screening frequency, commencement age, and MGD are good predictors for total effective risk generating more understandable data by clients than MGD

Developing and testing accelerated partner therapy for partner notification for people with genital Chlamydia trachomatis diagnosed in primary care: a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background Accelerated partner therapy (APT) is a promising partner notification (PN) intervention in specialist sexual health clinic attenders. To address its applicability in primary care, we undertook a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) of two APT models in community settings. Methods Three-arm pilot RCT of two adjunct APT interventions: APTHotline (telephone assessment of partner(s) plus standard PN) and APTPharmacy (community pharmacist assessment of partner(s) plus routine PN), versus standard PN alone (patient referral). Index patients were women diagnosed with genital chlamydia in 12 general practices and three community contraception and sexual health (CASH) services in London and south coast of England, randomised between 1 September 2011 and 31 July 2013. Results 199 women described 339 male partners, of whom 313 were reported by the index as contactable. The proportions of contactable partners considered treated within 6 weeks of index diagnosis were APTHotline 39/111 (35%), APTPharmacy 46/100 (46%), standard patient referral 46/102 (45%). Among treated partners, 8/39 (21%) in APTHotline arm were treated via hotline and 14/46 (30%) in APTPharmacy arm were treated via pharmacy. Conclusions The two novel primary care APT models were acceptable, feasible, compliant with regulations and capable of achieving acceptable outcomes within a pilot RCT but intervention uptake was low. Although addition of these interventions to standard PN did not result in a difference between arms, overall PN uptake was higher than previously reported in similar settings, probably as a result of introducing a formal evaluation. Recruitment to an individually randomised trial proved challenging and full evaluation will likely require service-level randomisation

The association between multimorbidity and mobility disability-free life expectancy in adults aged 85 years and over:A modelling study in the Newcastle 85+ cohort

BACKGROUND: Mobility disability is predictive of further functional decline and can itself compromise older people’s capacity (and preference) to live independently. The world’s population is also ageing, and multimorbidity is the norm in those aged ≥85. What is unclear in this age group, is the influence of multimorbidity on (a) transitions in mobility disability and (b) mobility disability-free life expectancy (mobDFLE). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using multistate modelling in an inception cohort of 714 85-year-olds followed over a 10-year period (aged 85 in 2006 to 95 in 2016), we investigated the association between increasing numbers of long-term conditions and (1) mobility disability incidence, (2) recovery from mobility disability and (3) death, and then explored how this shaped the remaining life expectancy free from mobility disability at age 85. Models were adjusted for age, sex, disease group count, BMI and education. We defined mobility disability based on participants’ self-reported ability to get around the house, go up and down stairs/steps, and walk at least 400 yards; participants were defined as having mobility disability if, for one or more these activities, they had any difficulty with them or could not perform them. Data were drawn from the Newcastle 85+ Study: a longitudinal population-based cohort study that recruited community-dwelling and institutionalised individuals from Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside general practices. We observed that each additional disease was associated with a 16% increased risk of incident mobility disability (hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07 to 1.25, p < 0.001), a 26% decrease in the chance of recovery from this state (HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.86, p < 0.001), and a 12% increased risk of death with mobility disability (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07- to .17, p < 0.001). This translated to reductions in mobDFLE with increasing numbers of long-term conditions. However, residual and unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded from these analyses, and there may have been unobserved transitions to/from mobility disability between interviews and prior to death. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest 2 implications from this work. (1) Our findings support calls for a greater focus on the prevention of multimorbidity as populations age. (2) As more time spent with mobility disability could potentially lead to greater care needs, maintaining independence with increasing age should also be a key focus for health/social care and reablement services

Morgellons disease, illuminating an undefined illness: a case series

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>This review of 25 consecutive patients with Morgellons disease (MD) was undertaken for two primary and extremely fundamental reasons. For semantic accuracy, there is only one "proven" MD patient: the child first given that label. The remainder of inclusive individuals adopted the label based on related descriptions from 1544 through 1884, an internet description quoted from Sir Thomas Browne (1674), or was given the label by practitioners using similar sources. Until now, there has been no formal characterization of MD from detailed examination of all body systems. Our second purpose was to differentiate MD from Delusions of Parasitosis (DP), another "informal" label that fit most of our MD patients. How we defined and how we treated these patients depended literally on factual data that would determine outcome. How they were labeled in one sense was irrelevant, except for the confusing conflict rampant in the medical community, possibly significantly skewing treatment outcomes.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Clinical information was collected from 25 of 30 consecutive self-defined patients with Morgellons disease consisting of laboratory data, medical history and physical examination findings. Abnormalities were quantified and grouped by system, then compared and summarized, but the numbers were too small for more complex mathematical analysis. The quantification of physical and laboratory abnormalities allowed at least the creation of a practical clinical boundary, separating probable Morgellon<it>s</it> from non-Morgellons patients. All the 25 patients studied meet the most commonly used DP definitions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data suggest Morgellons disease can be characterized as a physical human illness with an often-related delusional component in adults. All medical histories support that behavioral aberrancies onset only after physical symptoms. The identified abnormalities include both immune deficiency and chronic inflammatory markers that correlate strongly with immune cytokine excess. The review of 251 current NLM DP references leads us to the possibility that Morgellons disease and DP are grossly truncated labels of the same illness but with the reversal of the cause-effect order. Further, the patients' data suggest that both illnesses have an infectious origin.</p

Exploring the costs and outcomes of sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening interventions targeting men in football club settings: preliminary cost-consequence analysis of the SPORTSMART pilot randomised controlled trial

Background: The objective of this study was to compare the costs and outcomes of two sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening interventions targeted at men in football club settings in England, including screening promoted by team captains. Methods: A comparison of costs and outcomes was undertaken alongside a pilot cluster randomised control trial involving three trial arms: (1) captain-led and poster STI screening promotion; (2) sexual health advisor-led and poster STI screening promotion and (3) poster-only STI screening promotion (control/comparator). For all study arms, resource use and cost data were collected prospectively. Results: There was considerable variation in uptake rates between clubs, but results were broadly comparable across study arms with 50% of men accepting the screening offer in the captain-led arm, 67% in the sexual health advisor-led arm and 61% in the poster-only control arm. The overall costs associated with the intervention arms were similar. The average cost per player tested was comparable, with the average cost per player tested for the captain-led promotion estimated to be £88.99 compared with £88.33 for the sexual health advisor-led promotion and £81.87 for the poster-only (control) arm. Conclusions: Costs and outcomes were similar across intervention arms. The target sample size was not achieved, and we found a greater than anticipated variability between clubs in the acceptability of screening, which limited our ability to estimate acceptability for intervention arms. Further evidence is needed about the public health benefits associated with screening interventions in non-clinical settings so that their cost-effectiveness can be fully evaluated

Diesel Exhaust Particles Activate the Matrix-Metalloproteinase-1 Gene in Human Bronchial Epithelia in a β-Arrestin–Dependent Manner via Activation of RAS

BACKGROUND: Diesel exhaust particles (DEPs) are globally relevant air pollutants that exert a detrimental human health impact. However, mechanisms of damage by DEP exposure to human respiratory health and human susceptibility factors are only partially known. Matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) has been implied as an (etio)pathogenic factor in human lung and airway diseases such as emphysema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic asthma, tuberculosis, and bronchial carcinoma and has been reported to be regulated by DEPs. OBJECTIVE: We elucidated the molecular mechanisms of DEPs' up-regulation of MMP-1. METHODS/RESULTS: Using permanent and primary human bronchial epithelial (HBE) cells at air-liquid interface, we show that DEPs activate the human MMP-1 gene via RAS and subsequent activation of RAF-MEK-ERK1/2 mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling, which can be scaffolded by beta-arrestins. Short interfering RNA mediated beta-arrestin1/2 knockout eliminated formation, subsequent nuclear trafficking of phosphorylated ERK1/2, and resulting MMP-1 transcriptional activation. Transcriptional regulation of the human MMP-1 promoter was strongly influenced by the presence of the -1607GG polymorphism, present in 60-80% of humans, which led to striking up-regulation of MMP-1 transcriptional activation. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm up-regulation of MMP-1 in response to DEPs in HBE and provide new mechanistic insight into how these epithelia, the first line of protection against environmental insults, up-regulate MMP-1 in response to DEP inhalation. These mechanisms include a role for the human -1607GG polymorphism as a susceptibility factor for an accentuated response, which critically depends on the ability of beta-arrestin1/2 to generate scaffolding and nuclear trafficking of phosphorylated ERK1/2

Impairment of Coronary Arteriolar Endothelium-Dependent Dilation after Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotube Inhalation: A Time-Course Study

Engineered nanomaterials have been developed for widespread applications due to many highly unique and desirable characteristics. The purpose of this study was to assess pulmonary inflammation and subepicardial arteriolar reactivity in response to multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) inhalation and evaluate the time course of vascular alterations. Rats were exposed to MWCNT aerosols producing pulmonary deposition. Pulmonary inflammation via bronchoalveolar lavage and MWCNT translocation from the lungs to systemic organs was evident 24 h post-inhalation. Coronary arterioles were evaluated 24–168 h post-exposure to determine microvascular response to changes in transmural pressure, endothelium-dependent and -independent reactivity. Myogenic responsiveness, vascular smooth muscle reactivity to nitric oxide, and α-adrenergic responses all remained intact. However, a severe impact on endothelium-dependent dilation was observed within 24 h after MWCNT inhalation, a condition which improved, but did not fully return to control after 168 h. In conclusion, results indicate that MWCNT inhalation not only leads to pulmonary inflammation and cytotoxicity at low lung burdens, but also a low level of particle translocation to systemic organs. MWCNT inhalation also leads to impairments of endothelium-dependent dilation in the coronary microcirculation within 24 h, a condition which does not fully dissipate within 168 h. The innovations within the field of nanotechnology, while exciting and novel, can only reach their full potential if toxicity is first properly assessed

The SPORTSMART study: a pilot randomised controlled trial of sexually transmitted infection screening interventions targeting men in football club settings

Background: Uptake of chlamydia screening by men in England has been substantially lower than by women. Non-traditional settings such as sports clubs offer opportunities to widen access. Involving people who are not medically trained to promote screening could optimise acceptability. Methods: We developed two interventions to explore the acceptability and feasibility of urine-based sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening interventions targeting men in football clubs. We tested these interventions in a pilot cluster randomised control trial. Six clubs were randomly allocated, two to each of three trial arms: team captain-led and poster STI screening promotion; sexual health adviser-led and poster STI screening promotion; and poster-only STI screening promotion (control/comparator). Primary outcome was test uptake. Results: Across the three arms, 153 men participated in the trial and 90 accepted the offer of screening (59%, 95% CI 35% to 79%). Acceptance rates were broadly comparable across the arms: captain-led: 28/56 (50%); health professional-led: 31/46 (67%); and control: 31/51 (61%). However, rates varied appreciably by club, precluding formal comparison of arms. No infections were identified. Process evaluation confirmed that interventions were delivered in a standardised way but the control arm was unintentionally ‘enhanced’ by some team captains actively publicising screening events. Conclusions: Compared with other UK-based community screening models, uptake was high but gaining access to clubs was not always easy. Use of sexual health advisers and team captains to promote screening did not appear to confer additional benefit over a poster-promoted approach. Although the interventions show potential, the broader implications of this strategy for UK male STI screening policy require further investigation