Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management

1. Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub-national levels whose interactions and collective decision-making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare. 2. We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision-making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway. 3. We reveal a tendency for administrative decision-makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision-making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term. 4. Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight important inter-regional differences in decision-making and population forecasts, the socio-ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent future population declines. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions leading to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision-making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision-makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent

Games as tools to address conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts represent complex multilayered problems that are challenging to study. We explore the utility of theoretical, experimental, and constructivist approaches to games to help to understand and manage these challenges. We show how these approaches can help to develop theory, understand patterns in conflict, and highlight potentially effective management solutions. The choice of approach should be guided by the research question and by whether the focus is on testing hypotheses, predicting behaviour, or engaging stakeholders. Games provide an exciting opportunity to help to unravel the complexity in conflicts, while researchers need an awareness of the limitations and ethical constraints involved. Given the opportunities, this field will benefit from greater investment and development

Stretching the IR theoretical spectrum on Irish neutrality: a critical social constructivist framework

In a 2006 International Political Science Review article, entitled "Choosing to Go It Alone: Irish Neutrality in Theoretical and Comparative Perspective," Neal G. Jesse argues that Irish neutrality is best understood through a neoliberal rather than a neorealist international relations theory framework. This article posits an alternative "critical social constructivist" framework for understanding Irish neutrality. The first part of the article considers the differences between neoliberalism and social constructivism and argues why critical social constructivism's emphasis on beliefs, identity, and the agency of the public in foreign policy are key factors explaining Irish neutrality today. Using public opinion data, the second part of the article tests whether national identity, independence, ethnocentrism, attitudes to Northern Ireland, and efficacy are factors driving public support for Irish neutrality. The results show that public attitudes to Irish neutrality are structured along the dimensions of independence and identity, indicating empirical support for a critical social constructivist framework of understanding of Irish neutrality

Predictive Control for Autonomous Articulated Vehicles

Autonomous driving is a highly topical research area, where signi cant positive impacts on safety and environment can be made, especially in the trucking industry. The vehicles in this industry often consist of a tractor unit combined with a trailer. This project focuses on navigating a model semi-trailer truck through an urbanlike environment. A number of challenges arise from these settings, such as path planning and control through sharp turns and crossings, combined with obstacle avoidance. This needs to be done with high precision, considering that the whole articulated vehicle needs to stay within the bounds of the road. Since the vehicle will need to take critical decisions quickly, the performance and reliability of the control system is also important. Working towards a real world solution, this project o ers a complete prototype implementation in a scaled testbed environment for articulated vehicles. To achieve this, we have mathematically modeled the vehicle, created a path planning algorithm that takes the trailer into account when calculating a suitable path, and developed a controller that makes the vehicle follow this path. These components have been integrated on a single-board computer (Raspberry Pi 3) embedded on the vehicle. The evaluation of the system shows satisfying results, where the prototype is able to do on-the- y path planning while staying within the allowed areas of the test track. The system is also extensible and modi able, and can be extended in future student projects

Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management

1. Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub- national levels whose interactions and collective decision- making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, as-sessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare.2. We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision- making models that together predict annual har-vest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway.3. We reveal a tendency for administrative decision- makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx popula-tion size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision- making models, we show that such buffering of po-litical biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term.4. Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative gov-ernance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight impor-tant inter- regional differences in decision- making and population forecasts, the socio- ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent fu-ture population declines.5. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions lead-ing to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision- making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision- makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent.collaborative, decision-making, harvest, lynx, Norway, population forecast, quota, stakeholde