The Evolution of Contractual Terms in Sovereign Bonds

In reaction to defaults on sovereign debt contracts, issuers and creditors have strengthened the terms in sovereign debt contracts that enable creditors to enforce their debts judicially and that enable sovereigns to restructure their debts. These apparently contradictory approaches reflect attempts to solve an incomplete contracting problem in which debtors need to be forced to repay debts in good states of the world; debtors need to be granted partial relief from debt payments in bad states; debtors may attempt to exploit divisions among creditors in order to opportunistically reduce their debt burden; debtors may engage in excessively risky activities using creditors\u27 money; and debtors and creditors may attempt to externalize costs on the taxpayers of other coun­tries. We support this argument with a statistical study of the development of sovereign bond terms from 1960 to the present

Late Holocene expansion of Siberian dwarf pine (Pinus pumila) in Kamchatka in response to increased snow cover as inferred from lacustrine oxygen-isotope records

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. Holocene records of cellulose-inferred lake-water δ18O were produced from two lake-sediment sequences obtained in central and northern Kamchatka, Russian Far East. The sediment records share similar fluctuations in δ18O during the interval of ca. 5000-800calyr BP that correspond (inversely) with changes in K+ content of the GISP2 ice-core record from Greenland, a proxy for the relative strength of the Siberian High, suggesting control by climate-related variability in δ18O of regional precipitation. The dramatic expansion of Siberian dwarf pine (Pinus pumila) in northern and central Kamchatka between ca. 5000 and 4000calyr BP, as inferred from pollen records from the same and neighbouring sites, appears to have occurred at a time of progressively declining δ18O of precipitation. This development is interpreted as reflecting a regional cooling trend accompanied by increasing winter snowfall related to gradual intensification of the Siberian High from ca. 5000 to ca. 3000calyr BP. A thicker and more long-lasting snow cover can be assumed to have favoured P. pumila by providing a competitive advantage over other boreal and subalpine tree and shrub species in the region during the later part of the Holocene. These results, which are the first of their kind from Kamchatka, provide novel insight into the Holocene vegetational and climatic development in easternmost Asia, as well as long-term atmospheric circulation dynamics in Beringia

Holocene climate and environmental change in north-eastern Kamchatka (Russian Far East), inferred from a multi-proxy study of lake sediments

© 2015. A sediment record from a small lake in the north-eastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula has been investigated in a multi-proxy study to gain knowledge of Holocene climatic and environmental change. Pollen, diatoms, chironomids and selected geochemical parameters were analysed and the sediment record was dated with radiocarbon. The study shows Holocene changes in the terrestrial vegetation as well as responses of the lake ecosystem to catchment maturity and multiple stressors, such as climate change and volcanic eruptions. Climate change is the major driving force resulting in the recorded environmental changes in the lake, although recurrent tephra deposition events also contributed. The sediment record has an age at the base of about 10,000. cal. yrs BP, and during the first 400 years the climate was cold and the lake exhibited extensive ice-cover during winter and relatively low primary production. Soils in the catchment were poor with shrub alder and birches dominating the vegetation surrounding the lake. At about 9600-8900. cal. yrs BP the climate was cold and moist, and strong seasonal wind stress resulted in reduced ice-cover and increased primary production. After ca. 8900 cal. yrs BP the forest density increased around the lake, runoff decreased in a generally drier climate resulting in decreased primary production in the lake until ca. 7000 cal. yrs BP. This generally dry climate was interrupted by a brief climatic perturbation, possibly attributed to the 8.2. ka event, indicating increasingly windy conditions with thick snow cover, reduced ice-cover and slightly elevated primary production in the lake. The diatom record shows maximum thermal stratification at ca. 6300-5800. cal. yrs BP and indicates together with the geochemical proxies a dry and slightly warmer climate resulting in a high productive lake. The most remarkably change in the catchment vegetation occurred at ca. 4200 cal. yrs BP in the form of a conspicuous increase in Siberian dwarf pine (Pinus pumila), indicating a shift to a cooler climate with a thicker and more long-lasting snow cover. This vegetational change was accompanied by marked shifts in the diatom and chironomid stratigraphies, which are also indicative of colder climate and more extensive ice-cover

The Holocene environmental history of a small coastal lake on the north-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula

© 2015. A radiocarbon and tephra-dated sediment core from Lifebuoy Lake, located on the north-east coast of Kamchatka Peninsula, was analysed for pollen, spores, diatoms, chironomids and tephra in order to uncover regional environmental history. The 6500-year environmental history of Lifebuoy Lake correlates with the broad regional patterns of vegetation development and climate dynamics with both diatoms and chironomids showing near-synchronous changes. Between ca. 6300 and 3900 cal. yr. BP, the lake ecosystem was naturally enriched, with several Stephanodiscus species dominating the diatom plankton. This natural eutrophication state is likely to be due to a combination of the base-rich catchment geology, the fertilisation effect of several fires in the catchment, silica input from tephra layers and, possibly, nitrogen input from seabirds. The substantial tephra deposit at about 3850 cal. yr. BP might have stopped sedimentary phosphorus from entering the lake water thus decreasing the trophic state of the lake and facilitating the shift in diatom composition to a benthic Fragiliariaceae complex. Both diatoms and chironomids showed simultaneous compositional changes, which are also reflected by statistically significant changes in their rates of change 300-400. years after the arrival of Pinus pumila in the lake catchment. The rapid increase in both total diatom concentration and the percentage abundance of the large heavy species, Aulacoseira subarctica might be a response to the change in timing and intensity of lake spring turn-over due to the changes in the patterns of North Pacific atmospheric circulation, most notably westward shift of the Aleutian Low. The two highest peaks in A. subarctica abundance at Lifebouy Lake occurred during opposite summer temperature inferences: the earlier peak (3500-2900. cal. yr. BP) coincided with warm summers and the latter peak (300. cal. yr. BP-present) occurred during the cold summer period. These imply that A. subarctica shows no direct response to the changes of summer air temperature. Instead, it appears to thrive during the periods of increased winter precipitation, thicker ice and late spring turn-over periods, i.e., shows indirect response to climate. The clearest effect of tephra deposition on the lake ecosystem is above 908 cm (ca. 3800 cal. yr. BP) where the tephra deposit might have caused the shift from Stephanodiscus-dominated planktonic assemblages to the Fragilariaceae complex of benthic species. Tephra deposits might have also contributed towards the development of eutrophic plankton from about 6300 cal. yr. BP. It is not certain if several tephra deposits influenced diatom and chironomid changes during the last 300 years

Therapist-Supported Online Remote Behavioural Intervention for Tics (ORBIT) in Children and Adolescents: A Single-Blind Randomised Controlled Trial

Background: Behaviour therapy is an effective treatment in children and adolescents with tic disorders but is rarely available. Online delivery could widen access to therapy. We evaluated the efficacy of internet-delivered, therapist-supported and parent-assisted Exposure and Response Prevention (ERP) for tics. / Methods: Multi-centre, parallel group, single-blind, randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 9-17 years with Tourette syndrome/chronic tic disorder, who had not received behaviour therapy for tics within 12 months, and had a Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS) Total Tic Severity Score (TTSS) of >15, or >10 if motor or vocal tics only. Participants were recruited via 16 patient identification centres, two study sites, or online self-referral, and were randomised (1:1) by blinded outcome-assessors to receive either 10 weeks of ERP or psychoeducation (active control). The primary outcome was YGTSS-TTSS at 3 months’ post-randomisation, analysis was by intention-to-treat. The mean cost per patient for the intervention and health care costs were calculated. Registrations are ISRCTN (ISRCTN70758207) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03483493). / Findings: Between 8 th May 2018 and 30 th September 2019, 224 participants were enrolled; 112 to ERP and 112 to psychoeducation. The ERP intervention reduced YGTSS-TTSS by 2 . 29 points (95% CI: ‑3 . 86 to -0 . 71) compared to the psychoeducation group at 3 months, an effect that increased by 6 months post-randomisation (-2 . 64, 95% CI: -4 . 56 to -0 . 73). The average therapist time spent supporting the intervention was 2 . 5 hours. The additional cost per participant of the ERP intervention compared to psychoeducation was £159 (95% CI -£53 to £370). There were two unrelated serious adverse events, both in the psychoeducation group. / Interpretation: Online-delivered, therapist-supported ERP therapy is clinically effective at reducing tics, with minimal therapist contact time. Online delivery could improve access to evidence-based treatment for tics in children and adolescents

Selection for Heterozygosity Gives Hope to a Wild Population of Inbred Wolves

Recent analyses have questioned the usefulness of heterozygosity estimates as measures of the inbreeding coefficient (f), a finding that may have dramatic consequences for the management of endangered populations. We confirm that f and heterozygosity is poorly correlated in a wild and highly inbred wolf population. Yet, our data show that for each level of f, it was the most heterozygous wolves that established themselves as breeders, a selection process that seems to have decelerated the loss of heterozygosity in the population despite a steady increase of f. The markers contributing to the positive relationship between heterozygosity and breeding success were found to be located on different chromosomes, but there was a substantial amount of linkage disequilibrium in the population, indicating that the markers are reflecting heterozygosity over relatively wide genomic regions. Following our results we recommend that management programs of endangered populations include estimates of both f and heterozygosity, as they may contribute with complementary information about population viability

Living on social assistance with chronic illness: Buffering and undermining features to well-being

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Sweden, the social security and sickness insurance systems are comprehensive and aim to provide people whose illness prevents them from earning their own living, with either sickness benefits or disability pension. Some, however, are not entitled to these benefits or receive social insurance benefits at a level too low for subsistence, and are referred to social assistance. The purpose of this study was to explore in depth how social assistance recipients with chronic illness perceive and respond to the experience of living on social assistance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Seventeen in-depth interviews were carried out with chronically ill people who had received social assistance for several years. Grounded theory informed the design of the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study showed that different strategies (living one day at a time, taking steps forwards and backwards and making attempts to find ways out of the situation) were employed by social assistance recipients to maintain or improve their well-being. Contextual features like the prevailing welfare system, public services and the local neighbourhood could buffer or undermine these strategies and their overall well-being. These features together influenced how interviewees perceived their situation, the possible ways out of the situation and the consequences for their well-being.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>From this study it is evident that the way in which individuals on social assistance interact with services and how they are treated by professionals plays an important role in their well-being, in combination with what kind of help and support is available for recipients through the welfare system. In this respect, persons living on social assistance with chronic illness are particularly vulnerable. This study suggests that more effort should be made to find long term solutions concerning income support, rehabilitation and other services provided to this group.</p

Clinical intervals and diagnostic characteristics in a cohort of prostate cancer patients in Spain: a multicentre observational study

Background: Little is known about the healthcare process for patients with prostate cancer, mainly because hospital-based data are not routinely published. The main objective of this study was to determine the clinical characteristics of prostate cancer patients, the diagnostic process and the factors that might influence intervals from consultation to diagnosis and from diagnosis to treatment. Methods: We conducted a multicentre, cohort study in seven hospitals in Spain. Patients' characteristics and diagnostic and therapeutic variables were obtained from hospital records and patients' structured interviews from October 2010 to September 2011. We used a multilevel logistic regression model to examine the association between patient care intervals and various variables influencing these intervals (age, BMI, educational level, ECOG, first specialist consultation, tumour stage, PSA, Gleason score, and presence of symptoms) and calculated the odds ratio (OR) and the interquartile range (IQR). To estimate the random inter-hospital variability, we used the median odds ratio (MOR). Results: 470 patients with prostate cancer were included. Mean age was 67.8 (SD: 7.6) years and 75.4 % were physically active. Tumour size was classified as T1 in 41.0 % and as T2 in 40 % of patients, their median Gleason score was 6.0 (IQR:1.0), and 36.1 % had low risk cancer according to the D'Amico classification. The median interval between first consultation and diagnosis was 89 days (IQR:123.5) with no statistically significant variability between centres. Presence of symptoms was associated with a significantly longer interval between first consultation and diagnosis than no symptoms (OR:1.93, 95%CI 1.29-2.89). The median time between diagnosis and first treatment (therapeutic interval) was 75.0 days (IQR:78.0) and significant variability between centres was found (MOR:2.16, 95%CI 1.45-4.87). This interval was shorter in patients with a high PSA value (p = 0.012) and a high Gleason score (p = 0.026). Conclusions: Most incident prostate cancer patients in Spain are diagnosed at an early stage of an adenocarcinoma. The period to complete the diagnostic process is approximately three months whereas the therapeutic intervals vary among centres and are shorter for patients with a worse prognosis. The presence of prostatic symptoms, PSA level, and Gleason score influence all the clinical intervals differently