The evolution of the employment in the European Union. A stochastic shift and share approach

The employment is a main economic variable whose evolution has shown different dynamics within the European Union. Recent papers have recovered the significance of the sectoral factors in the explanation of the regional growth. In this sense, shift and share analysis has been considered an extremely useful technique and a standardization procedure has been developed to decompose the regional growth into three components: the national effect, the industry-mix effect and the competitive effect. Although shift and share analysis has been widely used in the explanation of the differences of growth between regions, this method has been criticized since its classical formulation does not allow to test hypotheses. Therefore, stochastic models have been developed as an extension of classical shift and share analysis, allowing the implementation of inferential processes and forecasting tools. The aim of this paper is to analyze the recent evolution of the employment in the European Union, developing a stochastic shift and share model and testing the sources of regional and sectoral differences.

The spatial shift-share analysis - new developments and some findings for the Spanish case

The main feature of shift-share analysis is, according to Dunn (1960), the computation of geographical shifts in economic activity. Nevertheless, the traditional shift-share approach does not include explicitly the interaction between the considered spatial units (countries, municipalities, regions, etc) since each of these units is considered to be independent with respect to the others. The consideration of the spatial dependence was suggested by some authors who recognized that the decomposed effects are not spatially independent. Nazara y Hewings (2002, 2004) take up this idea again and implement a new shift-share model based on the existence of spatial dependence between the geographic units by means of the definition of a spatial weight matrix. In this paper a comparative analysis of the different models is carried out. The obtained conclusions are also illustrated with some empirical applications related to municipalities.

Defining Scenarios through shift - share models. An Application to the regional employment

The analysis of different economic situations and risk factors is necessary in order to properly define forecasting scenarios. In this paper we focus on the shift-share model as a useful tool in the definition of economic scenarios, based on the different components that contribute to the change of a given economic magnitude (the so called national, sectoral and competitive effects). Although the most commonly used methodology is based on the “constant shift” and the “constant share” hypotheses, additional options can be considered based on the expected behaviour of the competitive effect, thus leading to more realistic scenarios. Once these new options are developed, this approach is applied to the definition of scenarios for the future evolution of the regional employment.

Predicción económica regional: experiencias en la red Hispalink

La elaboración de predicciones de crecimiento sectorial regional es el principal objetivo de la red Hispalink desde hace más de dos décadas. En este trabajo, realizado en colaboración, se combinan las aportaciones de varios equipos regionales y el equipo central para describir el método de trabajo y algunas de nuestras experiencias en el ámbito de Hispalink

First-time admissions for opioid treatment: crosssectional and descriptive study of new opioid users seeking treatment

Background: The purpose of this study was to gain an understanding of the profiles of the new treatment demands posed by opioid addicts between 2005 and 2010 at the addictive disorders assistance units in Galicia, Spain. Methods: A cluster analysis was performed using data from 1,655 treatment entrants. Clusters were constructed using sociodemographic and medicolegal variables. A cluster analysis was also conducted according to age. Once clusters were defined, their association with the following variables was analyzed: age at first use of opioids, years of use, frequency of opioid use in the previous month, psychiatric treatment, cocaine use, existence of a drug-dependent partner, and source of referral. Results: Four clusters were obtained in the main analysis. Cluster 1 (34.01%) consisted of young males, cluster 2 (16.19%) consisted of not-so-young males, cluster 3 (32.62%) consisted mainly of older males and a small group of females, and cluster 4 (17.18%) was made up entirely of women. With regard to age-related clusters, two clusters were obtained in those under the age of 30 years: cluster 1 (73%) without medicolegal complications and cluster 2 (27%) with medicolegal complications. For those over the age of 30 years, two clusters were obtained: cluster 1 (53.92%) with hardly any medicolegal complications and cluster 2 (46.08%) with medicolegal complications. Conclusion: Cluster analysis suggests that there have been no substantial changes in variables indicating greater severity in this new group of patients. Women are likely to seek help earlier, which reduces their duration of opioid use. The younger the patient, the shorter the duration of opioid use and the greater the likelihood of cessation of intravenous use. Public health systems should use a two-pronged treatment strategy of short but intense cessation therapies for women and younger treatment entrants and longer maintenance and replacement therapies for older treatment entrants with more psychosocial and medical complications.This study was partly supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Salud MentalS

Medidas de desigualdad: Un estudio analítico

Este documento es el primero de una serie de trabajos en los que abordamos la cuantificación de la desigualdad de renta de una población. En el trabajo de discusión que ahora presentamos se hace un planteamiento general de las medidas de desigualdad desde una óptica puramente analítica. Comenzaremos considerando los índices usualmente utilizados para cuantificar la desigualdad haciendo explícitos los inconvenientes que plantea el empleo de los mismos. A continuación se hace referencia a las propiedades que intuitivamente parece lógico exigir a las medidas de desigualdad. En la sección siguiente estudiaremos de modo exhaustivo el Índice de orden - 1, poniendo de manifiesto las ventajas que esta medida presenta frente a otros indicadores. A modo de apéndice se recogen otros tipos de medidas de desigualdad además de las ya estudiadas y se evalúa la bondad de todas ellas a partir de un conjunto de propiedades consideradas deseables

Leaf litter decomposition of native and introduced tree species of contrasting quality in headwater streams: How does the regional setting matter?

Terrestrial plant litter is important in sustaining stream food webs in forested headwaters. Leaf litter quality often decreases when native species are replaced by introduced species, and a lower quality of leaf litter inputs may alter litter decomposition at sites afforested with non-native species. However, since detritivore composition and resource use plasticity may depend on the prevalent litter inputs, the extent of the alteration in decomposition can vary between streams. We tested 2 hypotheses using 2 native and 3 introduced species of tree differing in quality in 4 Iberian regions with contrasting vegetational traits: 1) decomposition rates of all plant species would be higher in regions where streams normally receive litter inputs of lower rather than higher quality; 2) a higher resource-use plasticity of detritivores in regions vegetated with plants of lower litter quality will cause a greater evenness in decomposition rates among plant species compared to regions where streams normally receive higher-quality plant litter inputs. Results showed a highly consistent interspecific ranking of decomposition rates across regions driven by litter quality, and a significant regional effect. Hypothesis 1 was supported: decomposition rates of the five litter types were generally higher in streams from regions vegetated with species producing leaf litter of low quality, possibly due to the profusion of caddisfly shredders in their communities. Hypothesis 2 was not supported: the relative differences in decomposition rates among leaf litter species remained essentially unaltered across regions. Our results suggest that, even in regions where detritivores can be comparatively efficient using resources of low quality, caution is needed particularly when afforestation programs introduce plant species of lower litter quality than the native species

Leaf-litter decomposition in headwater stream: a comparation on the process among four climatic regions

The main purpose of our work was to elucidate factors responsible for the geographical differences in leaf-litter decomposition rates in Spanish oligotrophic headwater streams. Decomposition experiments with alder (Alnus glutinosa) leaf litter were carried out in 22 headwater streams in 4 different climatic regions across the Iberian Peninsula (Cornisa Canta´brica, Cordillera Litoral Catalana, Sierra de Guadarrama, and Sierra Nevada). Streams that were similar in size, flowed mainly over siliceous substrate in catchments with scarce human settlements and activities, and fell within a range of low nutrient concentrations were chosen in each region. Breakdown rates were regionally variable and were low (0.109–0.198% ash-free dry mass [AFDM]/degree day [dd]) in the Cornisa Canta´brica, the most mesic and Atlantic region, and high (0.302–0.639% AFDM/dd) in Sierra de Guadarrama, one of the coldest and most inland areas. Temperature was not the determining factor affecting differences in breakdown rates among regions, and breakdown rates were not related to concentrations of dissolved nutrients. However, microbial reproductive activity (sporulation rates) was significantly correlated with dissolved P concentration. Breakdown rates were explained better by presence and feeding activities of detritivores than by decomposer activity. Incorporation of breakdown rates in assessment schemes of stream ecological status will be difficult because leaf processing does not respond unequivocally to environmental factors when climatic regions are considered. Thus, regional adjustments of baseline standards in reference conditions will be required

White Paper 5: Brain, Mind & Behaviour

© CSICThe study of the brain will tell us what makes us humans and how our social behavior generates. Increasing our understanding of how the brain functions and interacts with the ecosystem to interpret the world will not only help to find effective means to treat and/or cure neurological and psychiatric disorders but will also change our vision on questions pertaining to philosophy and humanities and transform other fields such as economy and law. Neurosciences research at the CSIC is already valuable and should be intensified mainly focused on the eight major challenges described in this volume