Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security: Concept, Datasets and Opportunities for Computational Social Science Applications

Ensuring food and nutritional security requires effective policy actions that consider the multitude of direct and indirect drivers. The limitations of data and tools to unravel complex impact pathways to nutritional outcomes have constrained efficient policy actions in both developed and developing countries. Novel digital data sources and innovations in computational social science have resulted in new opportunities for understanding complex challenges and deriving policy outcomes. The current chapter discusses the major issues in the agriculture and nutrition data interface and provides a conceptual overview of analytical possibilities for deriving policy insights. The chapter also discusses emerging digital data sources, modelling approaches, machine learning and deep learning techniques that can potentially revolutionize the analysis and interpretation of nutritional outcomes in relation to food production, supply chains, food environment, individual behaviour and external drivers. An integrated data platform for digital diet data and nutritional information is required for realizing the presented possibilities

Quantifying farmers’ preferences for cropping systems intensification: A choice experiment approach applied in coastal Bangladesh’s risk prone farming systems

Sustainable intensification (SI) is envisioned as an effective strategy for developing countries to increase farm productivity while reducing negative environmental and social externalities. The development of regionally appropriate SI options however requires accounting for the knowledge and preferences of key stakeholders. In Bangladesh, the Government has requested international donors to support the development of dry season rice expansion in the coastal region. Policies however tend to be made without adequate study of farmers’ preferences and ambitions; this can render crop intensification efforts ineffective. Understanding farmers’ preferences for alternative crops and crop management practices are therefore crucial for success where agricultural development investments aim at incorporating the principles of SI. OBJECTIVE(S): Using coastal Bangladesh as a case study– we aim to (1) quantify farmers’ preferences for alternative irrigated crop and crop management options in comparison to the status quo (land fallowing), (2) analyze whether farmers’ preferences are conditioned by concerns regarding the cost and availability of irrigation and fertilizer inputs in comparison to expected net revenues, (3) understand how the heterogeneity in preferences can be attributed to farmer and/or farm characteristics, institutional, and biophysical factors, (4) determine how much farmers’ are willing to invest in different crops and crop management options – including those reliant and not reliant on irrigation. METHODS: Taking 300 farmers in two diverse coastal environments, a choice experiment (CE) was employed to explore the heterogeneity in farmers’ preferences for different dry “rabi” season intensification options (‘boro’ rice, maize, wheat and mungbean) against the status quo (dry season land fallowing after harvest of the monsoon season rice crop). Analyses included random parameter logit modeling followed by willingness-to-invest and profit simulations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Analyses revealed strong farmer preferences against rice and in favor of irrigated maize, and also in favor of rainfed or partially irrigated mungbean as an alternative to land fallowing. Irrespective of their location and environmental conditions, respondents had largely a negative preference for irrigation and fertilizer use due to high investment costs and associated production risks in the dry season. Nonetheless, a significant positive effect on their willingness-to-intensify cropping was observed where farmers felt it feasible to provide in-field drainage to limit waterlogging risks.Estación Experimental Agropecuaria BarilocheFil: Aravindakshan, Sreejith. Wageningen University and Research. Farming Systems Ecology, ; HolandaFil: Aravindakshan, Sreejith. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); BangladeshFil: Krupnik, Timothy J. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); BangladeshFil: Amjath-Babu, T.S. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); BangladeshFil: Speelman, Stijn. Ghent University. Department of Agricultural Economics; BélgicaFil: Tur-Cardona, Juan. Ghent University. Department of Agricultural Economics; BélgicaFil: Tittonell, Pablo Adrian. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Tittonell, Pablo Adrian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Tittonell, Pablo Adrian. Groningen University. Groningen Institute of Evolutionary Life Sciences; HolandaFil: Groot, Jeroen C.J. Wageningen University and Research. Farming Systems Ecology; HolandaFil: Groot, Jeroen C.J. Bioversity International; ItaliaFil: Groot, Jeroen C.J. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); Mexic

Exploring Farmers’ Perceptions of Agricultural Technologies: A Case Study from Tanzania

The low agricultural productivity of key crops and food insecurity continue to be key issues in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Tanzania. The growing population, depleting resources, and changing climate further amplify these issues. Globally, many agricultural technologies (AgTs) are available as pathways for improved agricultural productivity and food security, however, they have had relatively little success in SSA and Tanzania. This is because the uptake of AgTs is a complex process, which is highly localized, involving multiple actors, stages, and spatial and time dimensions. Smallholder farmers often experience issues of sustainability, constraints for adoption, and scaling-up throughout the uptake process of AgTs, all of which vary by region. This indicates a need for a systematic and simultaneous understanding of sustainability, constraints for adoption, and scaling-up of AgTs to better guide agricultural strategy and policy interventions in SSA and Tanzania. Moreover, in order to understand the local settings better, a consideration of the perceptions of the farmers themselves, who are the primary actors in the uptake process of AgTs, is key. Acknowledging this, the study takes on a case study approach, using the scaling-up assessment (ScalA) method and three focus group discussions with a total of 44 smallholder farmers to systematically and simultaneously assess the sustainability, constraints for adoption, and scaling-up of three AgTs (use of fertilizers, improved seeds, and small-scale irrigation) in Tanzania. The study finds that the farmers perceive all three AgTs to be sustainable for the study region. Adoption rates are perceived to be medium for use of fertilizers, high for improved seeds, and low for small-scale irrigation. The most significant constraints for adoption experienced by the farmers are lack of technical physical inputs, marketing facilities, and know-how. Scaling-up is perceived to be well fulfilled for use of fertilizers and improved seeds, but only partially fulfilled for small-scale irrigation, which is the most limited of the three AgTs. The most significant constraints for scaling-up experienced by farmers are a lack of confidence in the added value of the AgTs beyond project activities, marketing facilities, and technical physical inputs. The overall success potential is high for the use of fertilizers and improved seeds, and the average for small-scale irrigation. The farmers’ perceptions partially indicate why the bundle of AgTs is lacking in the study region and provide a basis for discussing targeted agricultural and policy interventions in Tanzania.Peer Reviewe

Are farmers willing to pay for participatory climate information services? Insights from a case study in peri-urban Khulna, Bangladesh

Among technological adaptation options, climate information services (CIS) offers high potential as a means to offset climate change impacts and build resilience in farming areas of developing countries. This study explores the potential of CIS, by investigating the case of participatory CIS development in the Lower Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. Specifically, we examined the value farmers attached to a co-developed CIS as decision support tool and the price farmers were willing to pay for CIS subscriptions. Based on a hypothetical market for CIS, we used contingent valuation with a double-bounded dichotomous choice format to determine farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for CIS. Two samples were included: an experiment group of farmers exposed to and trained in CIS use for farm decision-making and a control group of farmers without prior exposure to CIS. More than 90% of farmers in the experiment group expressed willingness to pay for CIS, compared to 75% of the control group. The annual subscription fees farmers were willing to pay ranged from 970.92 taka (US $11.45) to 1387.20 taka ($16.36). WTP was greater among farmers who had participated in CIS co-development. The main factors influencing farmers’ willingness to pay were CIS cost and prior exposure and training to CIS. Given that Bangladesh has more than 16.5 million farm households, these findings suggest huge market potential for CIS. Based on the high potential of participatory CIS, governmental institutions, the private sector and social entrepreneurs are called upon to develop CIS for smallholders, to unlock smallholders’ agriculture potential

Confronting the Climate Change Challenge

Current global climate policy architecture does not aim at stabilizingthe greenhouse gases concentration in atmosphere that may achievethe proclaimed 2°C guard rail. An alternative approach that targetson limiting the global cumulative emission to accomplish such an outcomeis put forward by German Advisory Board of Global Change(WBGU). This research work further elaborates the approach and itsflexibility instrument i.e. carbon trading. As the approach visualisessharing of the carbon budget (750Gt CO2) equally to every humanbeing (2.7t CO2 per capita), India is the country with largest tradablesurplus reflecting its low emission per capita and large population.The research work further analyzes the emission profile of rural Indiaand the significance of its future emission pathways with in the proposedframework. It also shows how low carbon development in Indiacan assist in cost effective decarbonisation of industrialised countriesand mitigation of climate change, given a global climate treaty basedon the WBGU approach

Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa : Implications for policy

Several studies estimate the immediate impact of climate change on agricultural societies in terms of changes in crop yields or farm income, though few studies concentrate on the immediate secondary consequences of climate change. This synthetic analysis uses a set of indicators to assess the repercussions of predicted income reductions resulting from climate change on food consumption, nutrition, health expenditure, education, and recreation in Zimbabwe, Cameroon, South Africa and Ethiopia. We also assess the potential decline in human development potential among smallholder dryland farmers in these sub-Saharan African countries. In contrast to previous efforts, the current study directly integrates the uncertainties in estimations of income changes and secondary consequences through a weighting scheme. The results reveal moderate to high levels of secondary impacts which could lead to increased vulnerability to diseases, susceptibility to nutritional disorders, deprivation of educational opportunities, and ultimately to a reduction in human and societal development potential among the considered nations. The article concludes by proposing a portfolio of policy options for ameliorating the secondary impacts of climate change in these sub-Saharan African countries.</p

Application of a bias-corrected meta-frontier approach and an endogenous switching regression to analyze the technical efficiency of conservation tillage for wheat in South Asia

Conservation tillage (CT) options are among the most rapidly spreading land preparation and crop establishment techniques globally. In South Asia, CT has spread dramatically over the last decade, a result of strong policy support and increasing availability of appropriate machinery. Although many studies have analyzed the yield and profitability of CT systems, the technical efficiency impacts accrued by farmers utilizing CT have received considerably less attention. Employing a DEA framework, we isolated bias-corrected meta-frontier technical efficiencies and meta-technology ratios of three CT options adopted by wheat farmers in Bangladesh, including bed planting (BP), power tiller operated seeding (PTOS), and strip tillage (ST), compared to a control group of farmers practicing traditional tillage (TT). Endogenous switching regression was subsequently employed to overcome potential self-selection bias in the choice of CT, in order to robustly estimate efficiency factors. Among the tillage options studied, PTOS was the most technically efficient, with an average meta-technology ratio of 0.90, followed by BP (0.88), ST (0.83), and TT (0.67). The average predicted meta-frontier technical efficiency for the CT non-adopters under a counterfactual scenario (0.80) was significantly greater (P = 0.00) than current TE scores (0.65), indicating the potential for sizeable profitability increases with CT adoption. Conversely, the counterfactual TE of non-adopters was 23% greater than their DEA efficiency, also indicating efficiency gains from CT adoption. Our results provide backing for agricultural development programs in South Asia that aim to increase smallholder farmers’ income through the application of CT as a pathway towards poverty reduction

Development of a participatory approach for mapping climate risks and adaptive interventions (CS-MAP) in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 2016 adversely affected Vietnam particularly in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), where more than 90% of the country’s rice export is produced annually. During that time, salinity intrusion and drought significantly affected agricultural production in the area. Furthermore, flooding is another recurring event in the area that is increasing in frequency. An assessment conducted by CGIAR Centers showed that even as warnings were provided by the government for the 2016 ENSO, these were not translated into appropriate preparations and responsive actions for agriculture. To address this critical issue, the Department of Crop Production (DCP) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam, and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Southeast Asia (CCAFS-SEA) collaborated to develop and test an participatory approach for mapping climate risks and adaptive interventions (CS-MAP) to recognize climate-related risks, identify potentially affected areas and develop regional and provincial adaptation plans for rice production. The CS-MAP is a participatory approach involving experts from various local and national offices for: (1) identifying climate-related risks; (2) delineating affected areas and risk levels; (3) proposing corresponding adaptive plans; (4) fine tuning and verifying proposed measures; and (5) developing integrated provincial and regional adaptation plans. Risks and adaptive interventions maps were developed for normal and ENSO years by using technical data (i.e. topography and hydrology), infrastructures (i.e. dikes, road and canals), and local observations. CS-MAP is now is under various stages of development and implementation in 13 MRD provinces highlighting the organizational uptake and integration of the approach. Keywords: Participatory mapping, Climate risk and adaptation, CS-MAP, Rice production, Vietna

Sustainability impact assessment tools for land use policy advice : A comparative analysis of five research approaches

Since 2007, a range of new modeling approaches and tools have been developed for sustainability impact assessment (SIA), but a lack of universal acceptance of SIA tools in applied policy making is observed. The current article gives an overview of experiences from several European and international projects, critically reviews the selected SIA tools and then discusses a number of reasons for the observed disconnect of the tools with the potential users. Largely based on the experiences of the presented SIA tools focusing land use policy advice, a decision tree is designed, which may facilitate an adequate, region and developmental phase specific selection of tool-box components for the development of SIA tools in future. Elements to ensure end-user participation are also integrated in the decision tree in order to increase the likelihood of the tool in applied land use policy advice. In addition, the Challenges in SIA tool development and use are further discussed