Large-scale collective action to avoid an Amazon tipping point - key actors and interventions

The destruction of the Amazon is a major global environmental issue, not only because of greenhouse gas emissions or direct impacts on biodiversity and livelihoods, but also due to the forest\u27s role as a tipping element in the Earth System. With nearly a fifth of the Amazon already lost, there are already signs of an imminent forest dieback process that risks transforming much of the rainforest into a drier ecosystem, with climatic implications across the globe. There is a large body of literature on the underlying drivers of Amazon deforestation. However, insufficient attention has been paid to the behavioral and institutional microfoundations of change. Fundamental issues concerning cooperation, as well as the mechanisms facilitating or hampering such actions, can play a much more central role in attempts to unravel and address Amazon deforestation. We thus present the issue of preventing the Amazon biome from crossing a biophysical tipping point as a large-scale collective action problem. Drawing from collective action theory, we apply a novel analytical framework on Amazon conservation, identifying six variables that synthesize relevant collective action stressors and facilitators: information, accountability, harmony of interests, horizontal trust, knowledge about consequences, and sense of responsibility. Drawing upon literature and data, we assess Amazon deforestation and conservation through our heuristic lens, showing that while growing transparency has made information availability a collective action facilitator, lack of accountability, distrust among actors, and little sense of responsibility for halting deforestation remain key stressors. We finalize by discussing interventions that can help break the gridlock

Looking for a needle in a haystack: inference about individual fitness components in a heterogeneous population

Studies of wild vertebrates have provided evidence of substantial differences in lifetime reproduction among individuals and the sequences of life history ‘states’ during life (breeding, nonbreeding, etc.). Such differences may reflect ‘fixed’ differences in fitness components among individuals determined before, or at the onset of reproductive life. Many retrospective life history studies have translated this idea by assuming a ‘latent’ unobserved heterogeneity resulting in a fixed hierarchy among individuals in fitness components. Alternatively, fixed differences among individuals are not necessarily needed to account for observed levels of individual heterogeneity in life histories. Individuals with identical fitness traits may stochastically experience different outcomes for breeding and survival through life that lead to a diversity of ‘state’ sequences with some individuals living longer and being more productive than others, by chance alone. The question is whether individuals differ in their underlying fitness components in ways that cannot be explained by observable ‘states’ such as age, previous breeding success, etc. Here, we compare statistical models that represent these opposing hypotheses, and mixtures of them, using data from kittiwakes. We constructed models that accounted for observed covariates, individual random effects (unobserved heterogeneity), first-order Markovian transitions between observed states, or combinations of these features. We show that individual sequences of states are better accounted for by models incorporating unobserved heterogeneity than by models including first-order Markov processes alone, or a combination of both. If we had not considered individual heterogeneity, models including Markovian transitions would have been the best performing ones. We also show that inference about age-related changes in fitness components is sensitive to incorporation of underlying individual heterogeneity in models. Our approach provides insight into the sources of individual heterogeneity in life histories, and can be applied to other data sets to examine the ubiquity of our results across the tree of life

Anionic lipid nanoparticles preferentially deliver mRNA to the hepatic reticuloendothelial system

Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) are the leading nonviral technologies for the delivery of exogenous RNA to target cells in vivo. As systemic delivery platforms, these technologies are exemplified by Onpattro, an approved LNP-based RNA interference therapy, administered intravenously and targeted to parenchymal liver cells. The discovery of systemically administered LNP technologies capable of preferential RNA delivery beyond hepatocytes has, however, proven more challenging. Here, preceded by comprehensive mechanistic understanding of in vivo nanoparticle biodistribution and bodily clearance, an LNP-based messenger RNA (mRNA) delivery platform is rationally designed to preferentially target the hepatic reticuloendothelial system (RES). Evaluated in embryonic zebrafish, validated in mice, and directly compared to LNP-mRNA systems based on the lipid composition of Onpattro, RES-targeted LNPs significantly enhance mRNA expression both globally within the liver and specifically within hepatic RES cell types. Hepatic RES targeting requires just a single lipid change within the formulation of Onpattro to switch LNP surface charge from neutral to anionic. This technology not only provides new opportunities to treat liver-specific and systemic diseases in which RES cell types play a key role but, more importantly, exemplifies that rational design of advanced RNA therapies must be preceded by a robust understanding of the dominant nano-biointeractions involved.Supramolecular & Biomaterials Chemistr

Policy design for the Anthropocene

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordToday, more than ever, ‘Spaceship Earth’ is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet1. Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.Stockholm Resilience CentreBECC - Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing ClimateMistra Carbon Exi

EULAR points to consider for conducting clinical trials and observational studies in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis

Background Despite growing interest, there is no guidance or consensus on how to conduct clinical trials and observational studies in populations at risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods An European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) task force formulated four research questions to be addressed by systematic literature review (SLR). The SLR results informed consensus statements. One overarching principle, 10 points to consider (PTC) and a research agenda were proposed. Task force members rated their level of agreement (1–10) for each PTC. Results Epidemiological and demographic characteristics should be measured in all clinical trials and studies in at-risk individuals. Different at-risk populations, identified according to clinical presentation, were defined: asymptomatic, musculoskeletal symptoms without arthritis and early clinical arthritis. Study end-points should include the development of subclinical inflammation on imaging, clinical arthritis, RA and subsequent achievement of arthritis remission. Risk factors should be assessed at baseline and re-evaluated where appropriate; they include genetic markers and autoantibody profiling and additionally clinical symptoms and subclinical inflammation on imaging in those with symptoms and/or clinical arthritis. Trials should address the effect of the intervention on risk factors, as well as progression to clinical arthritis or RA. In patients with early clinical arthritis, pharmacological intervention has the potential to prevent RA development. Participants’ knowledge of their RA risk may inform their decision to participate; information should be provided using an individually tailored approach. Conclusion These consensus statements provide data-driven guidance for rheumatologists, health professionals and investigators conducting clinical trials and observational studies in individuals at risk of RA

Competition between Phytophthora infestans Effectors Leads to Increased Aggressiveness on Plants Containing Broad-Spectrum Late Blight Resistance

BACKGROUND: The destructive plant disease potato late blight is caused by the oomycete pathogen Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary. This disease has remained particularly problematic despite intensive breeding efforts to integrate resistance into cultivated potato, largely because of the pathogen's ability to quickly evolve to overcome major resistance genes. The RB gene, identified in the wild potato species S. bulbocastanum, encodes a protein that confers broad-spectrum resistance to most P. infestans isolates through its recognition of highly conserved members of the corresponding pathogen effector family IPI-O. IpiO is a multigene family of effectors and while the majority of IPI-O proteins are recognized by RB to elicit host resistance, some variants exist that are able to elude detection (e.g. IPI-O4). METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the present study, analysis of ipiO variants among 40 different P. infestans isolates collected from Guatemala, Thailand, and the United States revealed a high degree of complexity within this gene family. Isolate aggressiveness was correlated with increased ipiO diversity and especially the presence of the ipiO4 variant. Furthermore, isolates expressing IPI-O4 overcame RB-mediated resistance in transgenic potato plants even when the resistance-eliciting IPI-O1 variant was present. In support of this finding, we observed that expression of IPI-O4 via Agrobacterium blocked recognition of IPI-O1, leading to inactivation of RB-mediated programmed cell death in Nicotiana benthamiana. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we definitively demonstrate and provide the first evidence that P. infestans can defeat an R protein through inhibition of recognition of the corresponding effector protein

Another Avenue for Anatomy of Income Comparisons : Evidence from Hypothetical Choice Experiments

September 2010, Revised December 2010, Secondly Revised November 2011, Thirdly Revised May 2012, Fourthly Revised March 2013