Modelling carbon stock and carbon sequestration ecosystem services for policy design: a comprehensive approach using a dynamic vegetation model

Ecosystem service (ES) models can only inform policy design adequately if they incorporate ecological processes. We used the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model, to address following questions for Mexico, Bolivia and Brazilian Amazon: (i) How different are C stocks and C sequestration quantifications under standard (when soil and litter C and heterotrophic respiration are not considered) and comprehensive (including all C stock and heterotrophic respiration) approach? and (ii) How does the valuation of C stock and C sequestration differ in national payments for ES and global C funds or markets when comparing both approach? We found that up to 65% of C stocks have not been taken into account by neglecting to include C stored in soil and litter, resulting in gross underpayments (up to 500 times lower). Since emissions from heterotrophic respiration of organic material offset a large proportion of C gained through growth of living matter, we found that markets and decision-makers are inadvertently overestimating up to 100 times C sequestrated. New approaches for modelling C services relevant ecological process-based can help accounting for C in soil, litter and heterotrophic respiration and become important for the operationalization of agreements on climate change mitigation following the COP21 in 2015

Compound A, a Dissociated Glucocorticoid Receptor Modulator, Inhibits T-bet (Th1) and Induces GATA-3 (Th2) Activity in Immune Cells

Background: Compound A (CpdA) is a dissociating non-steroidal glucocorticoid receptor (GR) ligand which has antiinflammatory properties exerted by down-modulating proinflammatory gene expression. By favouring GR monomer formation, CpdA does not enhance glucocorticoid (GC) response element-driven gene expression, resulting in a reduced side effect profile as compared to GCs. Considering the importance of Th1/Th2 balance in the final outcome of immune and inflammatory responses, we analyzed how selective GR modulation differentially regulates the activity of T-bet and GATA-3, master drivers of Th1 and Th2 differentiation, respectively. Results: Using Western analysis and reporter gene assays, we show in murine T cells that, similar to GCs, CpdA inhibits T-bet activity via a transrepressive mechanism. Different from GCs, CpdA induces GATA-3 activity by p38 MAPK-induction of GATA-3 phosphorylation and nuclear translocation. CpdA effects are reversed by the GR antagonist RU38486, proving the involvement of GR in these actions. ELISA assays demonstrate that modulation of T-bet and GATA-3 impacts on cytokine production shown by a decrease in IFN-c and an increase in IL-5 production, respectively. Conclusions: Taken together, through their effect favoring Th2 over Th1 responses, particular dissociated GR ligands, fo

The health case for economic and social rights against the gobal marketplace

“All observations of life are harsh, because life is. I lament that fact, but I cannot change it.” —Margaret Atwood, The Tent (McClelland and Stewart 2006) Over the past few decades, most of the world's economies and societies have been integrated into the global marketplace, revealing and deepening various socioeconomic divisions. In this article, I undertake three major tasks. First, I outline the processes that have led to that deepening, identify the underlying set of values, and indicate the connection with influences on population health. Second, I compare and contrast a policy perspective that takes seriously economic and social rights related to health with the values of the global marketplace. Third, I argue that emerging aspects of globalization underscore the urgency of the human rights challenge to the global marketplace. I also suggest a research agenda focusing on the conditions under which governments are likely to respond in ways that strengthen their commitment to economic and social rights domestically and internationally, while at the same time offering some rather pessimistic observations about the prospects for policy change

Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7–0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8–75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8–1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641000 (623000–765000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination