Discussions on stakeholder requirements for space weather related models

Participants of the 2017 European Space Weather Week in Ostend, Belgium, discussed the stakeholder requirements for space weather related models. It was emphasized that stakeholders show an increased interest in space weather related models. Participants of the meeting discussed particular prediction indicators that can provide first order estimates of the impact of space weather on engineering systems

Forecasting auroras from regional and global magnetic field measurements

We use the connection between auroral sightings and rapid geomagnetic field variations in a concept for a Regional Auroral Forecast (RAF) service. The service is based on statistical relationships between near-real-time alerts issued by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and magnetic time derivative (dB / dt) values measured by five MIRACLE magnetometer stations located in Finland at auroral and sub-auroral latitudes. Our database contains NOAA alerts and dB / dt observations from the years 2002-2012. These data are used to create a set of conditional probabilities, which tell the service user when the probability of seeing auroras exceeds the average conditions in Fennoscandia during the coming 0-12 h. Favourable conditions for auroral displays are associated with ground magnetic field time derivative values (dB / dt) exceeding certain latitude-dependent threshold values. Our statistical analyses reveal that the probabilities of recording dB / dt exceeding the thresholds stay below 50% after NOAA alerts on X-ray bursts or on energetic particle flux enhancements. Therefore, those alerts are not very useful for auroral forecasts if we want to keep the number of false alarms low. However, NOAA alerts on global geomagnetic storms (characterized with K-p values > 4) enable probability estimates of > 50% with lead times of 3-12 h. RAF forecasts thus rely heavily on the well-known fact that bright auroras appear during geomagnetic storms. The additional new piece of information which RAF brings to the previous picture is the knowledge on typical storm durations at different latitudes. For example, the service users south of the Arctic Circle will learn that after a NOAA ALTK06 issuance in night, auroral spotting should be done within 12 h after the alert, while at higher latitudes conditions can remain favourable during the next night.Peer reviewe

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures

Space weather

Space weather is caused by conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can affect human life or health. It affects man-made systems such as satellite electronics, terrestrial power grids and radio communications. This paper provides an overview of how space weather arises in the solar terrestrial system and how physical processes are able to cause space weather effects. We also discuss European perspectives and activities geared towards the possible initiation of a European Space Weather programme.

Services for GNSS users within the ESA Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Service Network

Ionospheric Space Weather can adversely degrade the performance of radio systems in communication, space based navigation and remote sensing. Navigation signals transmitted by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are delayed, refracted and diffracted by the highly variable ionosphere affecting the accuracy, availability, continuity and integrity of GNSS signals which can be crucial in safety of life and precise positioning applications. Therefore detection, monitoring and prediction of ionospheric effects are important for mitigating such impact. In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather Service Network to support end-users, in a wide range of affected sectors, in mitigating the effects of space weather on their systems, reducing costs and improving reliability. In this paper we present an overview of the current status of the network, the targeted end user groups and Expert Service Centers (ESCs). Focusing on the ESC for Ionospheric Weather (I-ESC), we report on the currently available products and tools as well as on the recent and ongoing activities in expanding the network for this domain

Summary of the plenary sessions at European Space Weather Week 15: space weather users and service providers working together now and in the future

During European Space Weather Week 15 two plenary sessions were held to review the status of operational space weather forecasting. The first session addressed the topic of working with space weather service providers now and in the future, the user perspective. The second session provided the service perspective, addressing experiences in forecasting development and operations. Presentations in both sessions provided an overview of international efforts on these topics, and panel discussion topics arising in the first session were used as a basis for panel discussion in the second session. Discussion topics included experiences during the September 2017 space weather events, cross domain impacts, timeliness of notifications, and provision of effective user education. Users highlighted that a severe space weather event did not necessarily lead to severe impacts for each individual user across the different sectors. Service providers were generally confident that timely and reliable information could be provided during severe and extreme events, although stressed that more research and funding were required in this relatively new field of operational space weather forecasting, to ensure continuation of capabilities and further development of services, in particular improved forecasting targeting user needs. Here a summary of the sessions is provided followed by a commentary on the current state-of-the-art and potential next steps towards improvement of services

Towards common validation and verification procedures in the ongoing SSA Space Weather Service Network

In the framework of the Space Situational Awareness Programme (SSA) of the European Space Agency (ESA), the Space WEather (SWE) segment aims to help end-users in a wide range of SWE affected sectors to mitigate the effects on their systems, reducing costs and improving reliability. In the SWE segment, five Expert Service Centres (ESCs), the SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC) and the SSA Space Weather Data Centre (SWE-DC) form the SSA SWE network. This network is providing SWE services to users dependent on space weather conditions. The SWE services are composed of an extensive number of products provided by numerous contributing expert groups. Each product is delivered to the SSA SWE network with a full package of documentation and user guidance. This includes results of validation and verification procedures helping the end-user to identify the appropriate products for each application. The currently diverse procedures for product validation and verification hamper the comparison and evaluation of different products. Therefore, the SWE network aims to harmonize these procedures. Here, an overview of the ESCs product validation assessment and planning for the current activity will be given, including examples of best practice and approaches for common validation and verification procedures