Estimating the burden of multiple endemic diseases and health conditions using Bayes’ Theorem: A conditional probability model applied to UK dairy cattle

The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) is an international collaboration aiming, in part, to measure and improve societal outcomes from livestock. One GBADs objective is to estimate the economic impact of endemic diseases in livestock. However, if individual disease impact estimates are linearly aggregated without consideration for associations among diseases, there is the potential to double count impacts, overestimating the total burden. Accordingly, the authors propose a method to adjust an array of individual disease impact estimates so that they may be aggregated without overlap. Using Bayes’ Theorem, conditional probabilities were derived from inter-disease odds ratios in the literature. These conditional probabilities were used to calculate the excess probability of disease among animals with associated conditions, or the probability of disease overlap given the odds of coinfection, which were then used to adjust disease impact estimates so that they may be aggregated. The aggregate impacts, or the yield, fertility, and mortality gaps due to disease, were then attributed and valued, generating disease-specific losses. The approach was illustrated using an example dairy cattle system with input values and supporting parameters from the UK, with 13 diseases and health conditions endemic to UK dairy cattle: cystic ovary, disease caused by gastrointestinal nematodes, displaced abomasum, dystocia, fasciolosis, lameness, mastitis, metritis, milk fever, neosporosis, paratuberculosis, retained placenta, and subclinical ketosis. The diseases and conditions modelled resulted in total adjusted losses of £ 404/cow/year, equivalent to herd-level losses of £ 60,000/year. Unadjusted aggregation methods suggested losses 14–61% greater. Although lameness was identified as the costliest condition (28% of total losses), variations in the prevalence of fasciolosis, neosporosis, and paratuberculosis (only a combined 22% of total losses) were nearly as impactful individually as variations in the prevalence of lameness. The results suggest that from a disease control policy perspective, the costliness of a disease may not always be the best indicator of the investment its control warrants; the costliness rankings varied across approaches and total losses were found to be surprisingly sensitive to variations in the prevalence of relatively uncostly diseases. This approach allows for disease impact estimates to be aggregated without double counting. It can be applied to any livestock system in any region with any set of endemic diseases, and can be updated as new prevalence, impact, and disease association data become available. This approach also provides researchers and policymakers an alternative tool to rank prevention priorities

Costs Of Using “Tiny Targets” to Control Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, a Vector of Gambiense Sleeping Sickness in Arua District of Uganda

Introduction To evaluate the relative effectiveness of tsetse control methods, their costs need to be analysed alongside their impact on tsetse populations. Very little has been published on the costs of methods specifically targeting human African trypanosomiasis. Methodology/Principal Findings In northern Uganda, a 250 km2 field trial was undertaken using small (0.5 X 0.25 m) insecticide-treated targets (“tiny targets”). Detailed cost recording accompanied every phase of the work. Costs were calculated for this operation as if managed by the Ugandan vector control services: removing purely research components of the work and applying local salaries. This calculation assumed that all resources are fully used, with no spare capacity. The full cost of the operation was assessed at USD 85.4 per km2, of which USD 55.7 or 65.2% were field costs, made up of three component activities (target deployment: 34.5%, trap monitoring: 10.6% and target maintenance: 20.1%). The remaining USD 29.7 or 34.8% of the costs were for preliminary studies and administration (tsetse surveys: 6.0%, sensitisation of local populations: 18.6% and office support: 10.2%). Targets accounted for only 12.9% of the total cost, other important cost components were labour (24.1%) and transport (34.6%). Discussion Comparison with the updated cost of historical HAT vector control projects and recent estimates indicates that this work represents a major reduction in cost levels. This is attributed not just to the low unit cost of tiny targets but also to the organisation of delivery, using local labour with bicycles or motorcycles. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken, investigating key prices and assumptions. It is believed that these costs are generalizable to other HAT foci, although in more remote areas, with denser vegetation and fewer people, costs would increase, as would be the case for other tsetse control techniques

The cost of tsetse control using 'Tiny Targets' in the sleeping sickness endemic forest area of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire: Implications for comparing costs across different settings.

BACKGROUND Work to control the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), or sleeping sickness, is now directed towards ending transmission of the parasite by 2030. In order to supplement gHAT case-finding and treatment, since 2011 tsetse control has been implemented using Tiny Targets in a number of gHAT foci. As this intervention is extended to new foci, it is vital to understand the costs involved. Costs have already been analysed for the foci of Arua in Uganda and Mandoul in Chad. This paper examines the costs of controlling Glossina palpalis palpalis in the focus of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire from 2016 to 2017. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Some 2000 targets were placed throughout the main gHAT transmission area of 130 km2 at a density of 14.9 per km2. The average annual cost was USD 0.5 per person protected, USD 31.6 per target deployed of which 12% was the cost of the target itself, or USD 471.2 per km2 protected. Broken down by activity, 54% was for deployment and maintenance of targets, 34% for tsetse surveys/monitoring and 12% for sensitising populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE The cost of tsetse control per km2 of the gHAT focus protected in Bonon was more expensive than in Chad or Uganda, while the cost per km2 treated, that is the area where the targets were actually deployed, was cheaper. Per person protected, the Bonon cost fell between the two, with Uganda cheaper and Chad more expensive. In Bonon, targets were deployed throughout the protected area, because G. p. palpalis was present everywhere, whereas in Chad and Uganda G. fuscipes fuscipes was found only the riverine fringing vegetation. Thus, differences between gHAT foci, in terms of tsetse ecology and human geography, impact on the cost-effectiveness of tsetse control. It also demonstrates the need to take into account both the area treated and protected alongside other impact indicators, such as the cost per person protected

Quantifying the burden of rhodesiense sleeping sickness in Urambo district, Tanzania

Sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis - HAT) is a disease transmitted by tsetse flies and is always fatal if left untreated. The disease occurs in foci affecting poor communities with limited access to health service provision and as such the disease is often left undiagnosed, mistaken for more common afflictions. Even if diagnosed, sleeping sickness is costly to treat, both for health services and patients and their families in terms of costs of diagnosis, transport, hospital care, and the prolonged period of convalescence. Here we estimate the health burden of the acute form T. b. rhodesiense sleeping sickness in Urambo District, Tanzania in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), the yardstick commonly used by policy makers to prioritize disease management practices, representing a year of healthy life lost to disease. In this single district, the burden of the disease over one year was estimated at 979 DALYs and the estimated monetary costs to health services for the 143 treated patients at US$11,841 and to the patients themselves at US$ 3,673 for direct medical costs and US$ 9,781 for indirect non-medical costs. Sleeping sickness thus places a considerable burden on the affected rural communities and health services

Restoration of self-awareness of hypoglycemia in adults with long-standing type 1 diabetes: hyperinsulinemic-hypoglycemic clamp substudy results from the HypoCOMPaSS trial.

OBJECTIVE: Impaired awareness of hypoglycemia (IAH) and defective counterregulation significantly increase severe hypoglycemia risk in type 1 diabetes (T1D). We evaluated restoration of IAH/defective counterregulation by a treatment strategy targeted at hypoglycemia avoidance in adults with T1D with IAH (Gold score ≥4) participating in the U.K.-based multicenter HypoCOMPaSS randomized controlled trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Eighteen subjects with T1D and IAH (mean ± SD age 50 ± 9 years, T1D duration 35 ± 10 years, HbA1c 8.1 ± 1.0% [65 ± 10.9 mmol/mol]) underwent stepped hyperinsulinemic-hypoglycemic clamp studies before and after a 6-month intervention. The intervention comprised the HypoCOMPaSS education tool in all and randomized allocation, in a 2 × 2 factorial study design, to multiple daily insulin analog injections or continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy and conventional glucose monitoring or real-time continuous glucose monitoring. Symptoms, cognitive function, and counterregulatory hormones were measured at each glucose plateau (5.0, 3.8, 3.4, 2.8, and 2.4 mmol/L), with each step lasting 40 min with subjects kept blinded to their actual glucose value throughout clamp studies. RESULTS: After intervention, glucose concentrations at which subjects first felt hypoglycemic increased (mean ± SE from 2.6 ± 0.1 to 3.1 ± 0.2 mmol/L, P = 0.02), and symptom and plasma metanephrine responses to hypoglycemia were higher (median area under curve for symptoms, 580 [interquartile range {IQR} 420-780] vs. 710 [460-1,260], P = 0.02; metanephrine, 2,412 [-3,026 to 7,279] vs. 5,180 [-771 to 11,513], P = 0.01). Glycemic threshold for deterioration of cognitive function measured by four-choice reaction time was unchanged, while the color-word Stroop test showed a degree of adaptation. CONCLUSIONS: Even in long-standing T1D, IAH and defective counterregulation may be improved by a clinical strategy aimed at hypoglycemia avoidance

Biomarker discovery and redundancy reduction towards classification using a multi-factorial MALDI-TOF MS T2DM mouse model dataset

Diabetes like many diseases and biological processes is not mono-causal. On the one hand multifactorial studies with complex experimental design are required for its comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, the data from these studies often include a substantial amount of redundancy such as proteins that are typically represented by a multitude of peptides. Coping simultaneously with both complexities (experimental and technological) makes data analysis a challenge for Bioinformatics

Study of elderly person's quality of life who reside in residential care in primary health care

<p><b>Note that column totals are independently modeled and may therefore not exactly match age-specific output summaries.</b></p

Developing a high-throughput SNP-based marker system to facilitate the introgression of traits from Aegilops species into bread wheat (Triticum aestivum)

The genus Aegilops contains a diverse collection of wild species exhibiting variation in geographical distribution, ecological adaptation, ploidy and genome organization. Aegilops is the most closely related genus to Triticum which includes cultivated wheat, a globally important crop that has a limited gene pool for modern breeding. Aegilops species are a potential future resource for wheat breeding for traits, such as adaptation to different ecological conditions and pest and disease resistance. This study describes the development and application of the first high-throughput genotyping platform specifically designed for screening wheat relative species. The platform was used to screen multiple accessions representing all species in the genus Aegilops. Firstly, the data was demonstrated to be useful for screening diversity and examining relationships within and between Aegilops species. Secondly, markers able to characterize and track introgressions from Aegilops species in hexaploid wheat were identified and validated using two different approaches

Using ecological and field survey data to establish a national list of the wild bee pollinators of crops

The importance of wild bees for crop pollination is well established, but less is known about which species contribute to service delivery to inform agricultural management, monitoring and conservation. Using sites in Great Britain as a case study, we use a novel qualitative approach combining ecological information and field survey data to establish a national list of crop pollinating bees for four economically important crops (apple, field bean, oilseed rape and strawberry). A traits data base was used to establish potential pollinators, and combined with field data to identify both dominant crop flower visiting bee species and other species that could be important crop pollinators, but which are not presently sampled in large numbers on crops flowers. Whilst we found evidence that a small number of common, generalist species make a disproportionate contribution to flower visits, many more species were identified as potential pollinators, including rare and specialist species. Furthermore, we found evidence of substantial variation in the bee communities of different crops. Establishing a national list of crop pollinators is important for practitioners and policy makers, allowing targeted management approaches for improved ecosystem services, conservation and species monitoring. Data can be used to make recommendations about how pollinator diversity could be promoted in agricultural landscapes. Our results suggest agri-environment schemes need to support a higher diversity of species than at present, notably of solitary bees. Management would also benefit from targeting specific species to enhance crop pollination services to particular crops. Whilst our study is focused upon Great Britain, our methodology can easily be applied to other countries, crops and groups of pollinating insects.LH was funded by NERC QMEE CDT. EJB was funded by a BBSRC Ph.D. studentship under grant BB/F016581/1. LB was was supported by the Scholarship Program of the German Federal Environmental Foundation (Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt, DBU, AZ 20014/302). AJC was funded by the BBSRC and Syngenta UK as part of a case award Ph.D. (grant no. 1518739). AE was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405940-115642). DG and A-MK were funded by grant PCIN2014-145-C02-02 (MinECo; EcoFruit project BiodivERsA-FACCE2014-74). MG was supported by Establishing a UK Pollinator Monitoring and Research Partnership (PMRP) a collaborative project funded by Defra, the Welsh and Scottish Governments, JNCC and project partners’. GAdG was funded via research projects BO-11-011.01-051 and BO-43-011.06-007, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality. DK was funded by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (BO-11-011.01-011). AK-H was funded by the NKFIH project (FK123813), the Bolyai János Fellowship of the MTA, the ÚNKP-19-4-SZIE-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology, and together with RF by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund OTKA 101940. MM was funded by Waitrose & Partners, Fruition PO, and the University of Worcester. MM was funded by grant INIA-RTA2013-00139-C03-01 (MinECo and FEDER). BBP and RFS were funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of Wessex BESS (ref. NE/J014680/1). NJV was funded by the Walloon Region (Belgium) Direction générale opérationnelle de l’Agriculture, des Ressources naturelles et de l’Environnement (DGO3) for the "Modèle permaculturel" project on biodiversity in micro-farms, FNRS/FWO joint programme EOS — Excellence Of Science CliPS: Climate change and its impact on Pollination Services (project 30947854)". CW was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) (Project number 405945293). BW was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under research programme NE/N018125/1 ASSIST – Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems www.assist.ceh.ac.uk. TB and TO are supported by BBSRC, NERC, ESRC and the Scottish Government under the Global Food Security Programme (Grant BB/R00580X/1)

Social factors affecting seasonal variation in bovine trypanosomiasis on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria

BACKGROUND: African Animal Trypanosomiasis (AAT) is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and presents a major constraint to rural economic development. The Jos Plateau was considered free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and this trypanosomiasis free status attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to the area. The Jos Plateau now plays a major role in the national cattle industry in Nigeria, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd, supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. During the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers. Here we investigate the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis as a re-emerging disease on the Plateau, examining the social factors that influence prevalence and seasonal variation of bovine trypanosomiasis. METHODS: In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey was undertaken on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution of bovine trypanosomiasis. Participatory rural appraisal was also conducted to determine knowledge, attitudes and practices concerning animal husbandry and disease control. RESULTS: Significant seasonal variation between the dry season and late wet season was recorded across the Jos Plateau, consistent with expected variation in tsetse populations. However, marked seasonal variations were also observed at village level to create 3 distinct groups: Group 1 in which 50% of villages followed the general pattern of low prevalence in the dry season and high prevalence in the wet season; Group 2 in which 16.7% of villages showed no seasonal variation and Group 3 in which 33.3% of villages showed greater disease prevalence in the dry season than in the wet season. CONCLUSIONS: There was high seasonal variation at the village level determined by management as well as climatic factors. The growing influence of management factors on the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis highlights the impact of recent changes in land use and natural resource competition on animal husbandry decisions in the extensive pastoral production system