Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impact

Sex‐skewed trophic impacts in ephemeral wetlands

Predation can have marked impacts on ecosystem structure, function, and stability. However, quantifications of biotic interactions frequently overlook demographic variabilities within populations, which can modulate interaction strengths, such as sex and reproductive status. Compositional population ratios between males and females, alongside reproductive status, are highly variable temporally in ephemeral aquatic systems, and may profoundly mediate levels of ecological impact and thus stability of trophic groups. In the present study, we apply functional responses (resource intake as a function of resource density) to quantify predatory impacts of adult males, non‐gravid females, and gravid females of the calanoid copepod Lovenula raynerae (Diaptomidae), an abundant ephemeral pond specialist, on larvae of the Culex pipiens (Culicidae) mosquito complex. We then develop a novel metric to forecast population‐level impacts across different population sex ratio scenarios. Lovenula raynerae demonstrated prey population destabilising Type II functional responses irrespective of sex and reproductive status, yet variable functional response magnitudes were found. While male and non‐gravid female copepods exhibited similar functional response maximum feeding rates, gravid female feeding rates were substantially higher, implying higher resource demands for progeny development. Ecological impacts of L. raynerae on lower trophic groups increased markedly where their abundances increased but, crucially, also as population sex ratios became more biased towards gravid female copepods. We demonstrate that population‐level impacts do not only correlate tightly with abundance but may be further modulated by reproductive status variations. Thus, the development of sex‐skewed ratios in favour of gravid females during the hydroperiod probably heightens ecological impacts on lower trophic groups. The implications of these results for prey population stability are discussed in the context of freshwater ecosystems

Simulation vs. Reality: A Comparison of In Silico Distance Predictions with DEER and FRET Measurements

Site specific incorporation of molecular probes such as fluorescent- and nitroxide spin-labels into biomolecules, and subsequent analysis by Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) and double electron-electron resonance (DEER) can elucidate the distance and distance-changes between the probes. However, the probes have an intrinsic conformational flexibility due to the linker by which they are conjugated to the biomolecule. This property minimizes the influence of the label side chain on the structure of the target molecule, but complicates the direct correlation of the experimental inter-label distances with the macromolecular structure or changes thereof. Simulation methods that account for the conformational flexibility and orientation of the probe(s) can be helpful in overcoming this problem. We performed distance measurements using FRET and DEER and explored different simulation techniques to predict inter-label distances using the Rpo4/7 stalk module of the M. jannaschii RNA polymerase. This is a suitable model system because it is rigid and a high-resolution X-ray structure is available. The conformations of the fluorescent labels and nitroxide spin labels on Rpo4/7 were modeled using in vacuo molecular dynamics simulations (MD) and a stochastic Monte Carlo sampling approach. For the nitroxide probes we also performed MD simulations with explicit water and carried out a rotamer library analysis. Our results show that the Monte Carlo simulations are in better agreement with experiments than the MD simulations and the rotamer library approach results in plausible distance predictions. Because the latter is the least computationally demanding of the methods we have explored, and is readily available to many researchers, it prevails as the method of choice for the interpretation of DEER distance distributions

Intermediate predator naïveté and sex-skewed vulnerability predict the impact of an invasive higher predator

The spread of invasive species continues to reduce biodiversity across all regions and habitat types globally. However, invader impact prediction can be nebulous, and approaches often fail to integrate coupled direct and indirect invader effects. Here, we examine the ecological impacts of an invasive higher predator on lower trophic groups, further developing methodologies to more holistically quantify invader impact. We employ functional response (FR, resource use under different densities) and prey switching experiments to examine the trait- and density-mediated impacts of the invasive mosquitofish Gambusia affinis on an endemic intermediate predator Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda). Lovenula raynerae effectively consumed larval mosquitoes, but was naïve to mosquitofish cues, with attack rates and handling times of the intermediate predator unaffected by mosquitofish cue-treated water. Mosquitofish did not switch between male and female prey, consistently displaying a strong preference for female copepods. We thus demonstrate a lack of risk-reduction activity in the presence of invasive fish by L. raynerae and, in turn, high susceptibility of such intermediate trophic groups to invader impact. Further, we show that mosquitofish demonstrate sex-skewed predator selectivity towards intermediate predators of mosquito larvae, which may affect predator population demographics and, perversely, increase disease vector proliferations. We advocate the utility of FRs and prey switching combined to holistically quantify invasive species impact potential on native organisms at multiple trophic levels

Probing Flexibility in Porphyrin-Based Molecular Wires Using Double Electron Electron Resonance

A series of butadiyne-linked zinc porphyrin oligomers, with one, two, three, and four porphyrin units and lengths of up to 75 angstrom, have been spin-labeled at both ends with stable nitroxide TEMPO radicals. The pulsed EPR technique of double electron electron resonance (DEER) was used to probe the distribution of intramolecular end-to-end distances, under a range of conditions. DEER measurements were carried out at 50 K in two types of dilute solution glasses: deutero-toluene (with 10% deutero-pyridine) and deutero-o-terphenyl (with 5% 4-benzyl pyridine). The complexes of the porphyrin oligomers with monodentate ligands (pyridine or 4-benzyl pyridine) principally adopt linear conformations. Nonlinear conformations are less populated in the lower glass-transition temperature solvent. When the oligomers bind star-shaped multidentate ligands, they are forced to bend into nonlinear geometries, and the experimental end-to-end distances for these complexes match those from molecular mechanics calculations. Our results show that porphyrin-based molecular wires are shape-persistent, and yet that their shapes can deformed by binding to multivalent ligands. Self-assembled ladder-shaped 2:2 complexes were also investigated to illustrate the scope of DEER measurements for providing structural information on synthetic noncovalent nanostructures

Coupled, Physics-Based Modeling Reveals Earthquake Displacements are Critical to the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi Tsunami

The September 2018, Mw 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake occurring on the Palu-Koro strike-slip fault system was followed by an unexpected localized tsunami. We show that direct earthquake-induced uplift and subsidence could have sourced the observed tsunami within Palu Bay. To this end, we use a physics-based, coupled earthquake–tsunami modeling framework tightly constrained by observations. The model combines rupture dynamics, seismic wave propagation, tsunami propagation and inundation. The earthquake scenario, featuring sustained supershear rupture propagation, matches key observed earthquake characteristics, including the moment magnitude, rupture duration, fault plane solution, teleseismic waveforms and inferred horizontal ground displacements. The remote stress regime reflecting regional transtension applied in the model produces a combination of up to 6 m left-lateral slip and up to 2 m normal slip on the straight fault segment dipping 65∘ East beneath Palu Bay. The time-dependent, 3D seafloor displacements are translated into bathymetry perturbations with a mean vertical offset of 1.5 m across the submarine fault segment. This sources a tsunami with wave amplitudes and periods that match those measured at the Pantoloan wave gauge and inundation that reproduces observations from field surveys. We conclude that a source related to earthquake displacements is probable and that landsliding may not have been the primary source of the tsunami. These results have important implications for submarine strike-slip fault systems worldwide. Physics-based modeling offers rapid response specifically in tectonic settings that are currently underrepresented in operational tsunami hazard assessment

Predicting predatory impact of juvenile invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans) on a crustacean prey using functional response analysis: effects of temperature, habitat complexity and light regimes

The ecological implications of biotic interactions, such as predator-prey relationships, are often context-dependent. Comparative functional responses analysis can be used under different abiotic contexts to improve understanding and prediction of the ecological impact of invasive species. Pterois volitans (Lionfish) [Linnaeus 1758] is an established invasive species in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with a more recent invasion into the Mediterranean. Lionfish are generalist predators that impact a wide range of commercial and non-commercial species. Functional response analysis was employed to quantify interaction strength between lionfish and a generic prey species, the shrimp (Paleomonetes varians) [Leach 1814], under the contexts of differing temperature, habitat complexity and light wavelength. Lionfish have prey population destabilising Type II functional responses under all contexts examined. Significantly more prey were consumed at 26 °C than at 22 °C. Habitat complexity did not significantly alter the functional response parameters. Significantly more prey were consumed under white light and blue light than under red light. Attack rate was significantly higher under white light than under blue or red light. Light wavelength did not significantly change handling times. The impacts on prey populations through feeding rates may increase with concomitant temperature increase. As attack rates are very high at low habitat complexity this may elucidate the cause of high impact upon degraded reef ecosystems with low-density prey populations, although there was little protection conferred through habitat complexity. Only red light (i.e. dark) afforded any reduction in predation pressure. Management initiatives should account for these environmental factors when planning mitigation and prevention strategies

Effects of acute and chronic temperature changes on the functional responses of the dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula (Linnaeus, 1758) towards amphipod prey Echinogammarus marinus (Leach, 1815)

Predation is a strong driver of population dynamics and community structure and it is essential to reliably quantify and predict predation impacts on prey populations in a changing thermal landscape. Here, we used comparative functional response analyses to assess how predator-prey interactions between dogfish and invertebrate prey change under different warming scenarios. The Functional Response Type, attack rate, handling time and maximum feeding rate estimates were calculated for Scyliorhinus canicula preying upon Echinogammarus marinus under temperatures of 11.3 °C and 16.3 °C, which represent both the potential daily variation and predicted higher summer temperatures within Strangford Lough, N. Ireland. A two x two design of “Predator Acclimated”, “Prey Acclimated”, “Both Acclimated”, and “Both Unacclimated” was implemented to test functional responses to temperature rise. Attack rate was higher at 11.3 °C than at 16.3 °C, but handling time was lower and maximum feeding rates were higher at 16.3 °C. Non-acclimated predators had similar maximum feeding rate towards non-acclimated and acclimated prey, whereas acclimated predators had significantly higher maximum feeding rates towards acclimated prey as compared to non-acclimated prey. Results suggests that the predator attack rate is decreased by increasing temperature but when both predator and prey are acclimated the shorter handling times considerably increase predator impact. The functional response of the fish changed from Type II to Type III with an increase in temperature, except when only the prey were acclimated. This change from population destabilizing Type II to more stabilizing Type III could confer protection to prey at low densities but increase the maximum feeding rate by Scyliorhinus canicula in the future. However, predator movement between different thermal regimes may maintain a Type II response, albeit with a lower maximum feeding rate. This has implications for the way the increasing population Scyliorhinus canicula in the Irish Sea may exploit valuable fisheries stocks in the future

The National Early Warning Score and its subcomponents recorded within ±24 hours of emergency medical admission are poor predictors of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

YesBackground: Hospital-acquired Acute Kidney Injury (H-AKI) is a common cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality. Aim: To determine if the patients’ vital signs data as defined by a National Early Warning Score (NEWS), can predict H-AKI following emergency admission to hospital. Methods: Analyses of emergency admissions to York hospital over 24-months with NEWS data. We report the area under the curve (AUC) for logistic regression models that used the index NEWS (model A0), plus age and sex (A1), plus subcomponents of NEWS (A2) and two-way interactions (A3). Likewise for maximum NEWS (models B0,B1,B2,B3). Results: 4.05% (1361/33608) of emergency admissions had H-AKI. Models using the index NEWS had the lower AUCs (0.59 to 0.68) than models using the maximum NEWS AUCs (0.75 to 0.77). The maximum NEWS model (B3) was more sensitivity than the index NEWS model (A0) (67.60% vs 19.84%) but identified twice as many cases as being at risk of H-AKI (9581 vs 4099) at a NEWS of 5. Conclusions: The index NEWS is a poor predictor of H-AKI. The maximum NEWS is a better predictor but seems unfeasible because it is only knowable in retrospect and is associated with a substantial increase in workload albeit with improved sensitivity.The Health Foundatio