Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk

Abstract: Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions

Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk

Abstract: Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

The utility of pregnancy associated plasma protein-A MoM values in prediction of term respiratory distress syndrome

This study aimed to investigate if the pregnancy associated plasma Protein-A (PAPP-A) multiples of median (MoM) levels could be used as a marker for the early prediction of RDS. The present study was designed with data gathered from 1773 patients who were referred to our institution for first trimester fetal chromosomal anomaly screening. First trimester PAPP-A MoM values and postnatal RDS occurrences in these pregnancies were retrospectively analysed. Of the 1773 neonates that were included in the study, 28 were delivered at or beyond 37 weeks, and 42 were delivered less than 37 weeks of gestation. In the group of neonates at or beyond 37 weeks, the cut-off value for RDS prediction was determined as 1.02. For this cut-off value, sensitivity was 72.41% and specificity was 91.84%. The area under curve (AUC) was determined to be statistically significant (p < .01). In conclusion, it was determined that in neonates that were delivered at or beyond 37 weeks of gestation, RDS occurrence could be predicted at a significant rate by utilising PAPP-A MoM values.IMPACT STATEMENT What is already known on this subject? Respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) is one of the major global healthcare problems, and continues to effect newborns despite the improvements in diagnosis and treatments of the disease. Studies have shown that pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) has a critical role in cellular proliferation and differentiation, and it is closely associated with many physiological and pathological processes via regulation of local insulin like growth factor (IGF) concentrations. In majority of the past studies in the literature regarding PAPP-A values in pregnancies, the association between low values of PAPP-A MoM and maternal-fetal complications were investigated. What do the results of this study add? This study retrospectively examines the PAPP-A MoM levels and the occurence of RDS. In neonates that were delivered at or beyond 37 weeks of gestation, RDS occurrence could be predicted at a significant rate by utilising PAPP-A MoM values which was measured at the first trimester fetal anomaly screening test. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? In the light of these findings, in order to reduce RDS related neonatal morbidity and mortality, pregnancies with PAPP-A MoM values greater than 1.02 at the first trimester fetal anomaly screening should be more closely followed up and a higher rate of suspicion should be kept for RDS occurrence

Pelvic and breast ultrasound abnormalities and associated metabolic disturbances in girls with premature pubarche due to adrenarche

Objective Premature adrenarche (PA) has been suggested as a risk factor for future health problems, such as metabolic syndrome and early menarche. However, not all girls with PA have these features and it is not certain who will develop them. We propose that these abnormalities might be identified earlier, even before they are visible. Design Case-control study. Setting Tertiary care hospital. Participants Forty-eight girls with premature pubarche due to PA and age (mean age 7.6 +/- 1.0 years), weight, body mass index (BMI), birth weight and gestational age-matched 49 girls with no palpable breast tissue. Measurements Early pubertal pelvic and breast ultrasonographic changes and their associations with obesity and metabolic parameters were evaluated. Blood samples were collected, breast and pelvic ultrasound examinations were performed and bone ages were assessed. Results Girls with PA were taller and their bone ages were higher (p = .049 and p = .005). Fasting blood glucose, insulin, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were not different between the groups. Luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and estradiol were not different either. Ultrasonography revealed breast gland tissue in 30% of girls with PA and 5% of controls (p = .006). Uterine volume and endometrial thickness were higher in girls with PA (p = .03 and p = .04). Endometrial thickness was positively associated with serum insulin levels in the whole study group and after adjusting for age, diagnosis, BMI, mean ovarian volume and LH, FSH, estradiol levels, this association remained with a borderline p-value (R-2 = 0.486, p = .050). Conclusions We found early changes in uterus and breast glands of girls with PA and endometrial thickness was positively associated with insulin levels