ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4–6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data

Recurrence and algorithmic information

In this paper we initiate a somewhat detailed investigation of the relationships between quantitative recurrence indicators and algorithmic complexity of orbits in weakly chaotic dynamical systems. We mainly focus on examples.Comment: 26 pages, no figure

Rational approximation and arithmetic progressions

A reasonably complete theory of the approximation of an irrational by rational fractions whose numerators and denominators lie in prescribed arithmetic progressions is developed in this paper. Results are both, on the one hand, from a metrical and a non-metrical point of view and, on the other hand, from an asymptotic and also a uniform point of view. The principal novelty is a Khintchine type theorem for uniform approximation in this context. Some applications of this theory are also discussed

Climate-controlled root zone parameters show potential to improve water flux simulations by land surface models

The root zone storage capacity (Sr) is the maximum volume of water in the subsurface that can potentially be accessed by vegetation for transpiration. It influences the seasonality of transpiration as well as fast and slow runoff processes. Many studies have shown that Sr is heterogeneous as controlled by local climate conditions, which affect vegetation strategies in sizing their root system able to support plant growth and to prevent water shortages. Root zone parameterization in most land surface models does not account for this climate control on root development and is based on lookup tables that prescribe the same root zone parameters worldwide for each vegetation class. These lookup tables are obtained from measurements of rooting structure that are scarce and hardly representative of the ecosystem scale. The objective of this research is to quantify and evaluate the effects of a climate-controlled representation of Sr on the water fluxes modeled by the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) land surface model. Climate-controlled Sr is estimated here with the “memory method” (MM) in which Sr is derived from the vegetation's memory of past root zone water storage deficits. Sr,MM is estimated for 15 river catchments over Australia across three contrasting climate regions: tropical, temperate and Mediterranean. Suitable representations of Sr,MM are implemented in an improved version of HTESSEL (Moisture Depth – MD) by accordingly modifying the soil depths to obtain a model Sr,MD that matches Sr,MM in the 15 catchments. In the control version of HTESSEL (CTR), Sr,CTR is larger than Sr,MM in 14 out of 15 catchments. Furthermore, the variability among the individual catchments of Sr,MM (117–722 mm) is considerably larger than of Sr,CTR (491–725 mm). The climate-controlled representation of Sr in the MD version results in a significant and consistent improvement of the modeled monthly seasonal climatology (1975–2010) and interannual anomalies of river discharge compared with observations. However, the effects on biases in long-term annual mean river discharge are small and mixed. The modeled monthly seasonal climatology of the catchment discharge improved in MD compared to CTR: the correlation with observations increased significantly from 0.84 to 0.90 in tropical catchments, from 0.74 to 0.86 in temperate catchments and from 0.86 to 0.96 in Mediterranean catchments. Correspondingly, the correlations of the interannual discharge anomalies improve significantly in MD from 0.74 to 0.78 in tropical catchments, from 0.80 to 0.85 in temperate catchments and from 0.71 to 0.79 in Mediterranean catchments. The results indicate that the use of climate-controlled Sr,MM can significantly improve the timing of modeled discharge and, by extension, also evaporation fluxes in land surface models. On the other hand, the method has not been shown to significantly reduce long-term climatological model biases over the catchments considered for this study.</p

Activation of lactate receptor HCAR1 down-modulates neuronal activity in rodent and human brain tissue.

Lactate can be used by neurons as an energy substrate to support their activity. Evidence suggests that lactate also acts on a metabotropic receptor called HCAR1, first described in the adipose tissue. Whether HCAR1 also modulates neuronal circuits remains unclear. In this study, using qRT-PCR, we show that HCAR1 is present in the human brain of epileptic patients who underwent resective surgery. In brain slices from these patients, pharmacological HCAR1 activation using a non-metabolized agonist decreased the frequency of both spontaneous neuronal Ca &lt;sup&gt;2+&lt;/sup&gt; spiking and excitatory post-synaptic currents (sEPSCs). In mouse brains, we found HCAR1 expression in different regions using a fluorescent reporter mouse line and in situ hybridization. In the dentate gyrus, HCAR1 is mainly present in mossy cells, key players in the hippocampal excitatory circuitry and known to be involved in temporal lobe epilepsy. By using whole-cell patch clamp recordings in mouse and rat slices, we found that HCAR1 activation causes a decrease in excitability, sEPSCs, and miniature EPSCs frequency of granule cells, the main output of mossy cells. Overall, we propose that lactate can be considered a neuromodulator decreasing synaptic activity in human and rodent brains, which makes HCAR1 an attractive target for the treatment of epilepsy

BIS and BAS sensitivities at different levels of personality description: A latent-variable approach with self- and informant-ratings

We study the impact of the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (DPAD) on mergers and acquisitions. DPAD reduces corporate tax rates on income from work or goods made in the US. Results indicate that the quantity and quality of acquisition bids by DPAD-advantaged firms conform to the predictions of the neoclassical theory of the firm and the theory of financial constraints. Specifically, bids, particularly those cash-financed, increase substantially in industries with large DPAD-related tax cuts and for firms with financial constraints. Moreover, DPAD improves acquisition quality where acquirers and targets are likely to generate incremental DPAD tax benefits through their merger

Efficacy of coping mechanisms used during COVID-19 as reported by parents of children with autism

The COVID-19 pandemic’s alterations to daily life have been especially challenging for families with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), worsening the core features of ASD and overall mental health. With the increased need for effective coping, the current retrospective study used data from a survey regarding parent reports of how often their child with ASD used certain coping strategies (frequency), as well as the extent to which they felt their child benefitted from their use (efficacy) in mitigating stress during the pandemic. This retrospective study Repeated measures ANOVAs were conducted to evaluate whether there were significant differences in both frequency and efficacy ratings for each coping strategy, for the entire sample as well as for three children’s age groups. Using Spearman’s rank-order correlations, correlation coefficients between the frequency and efficacy of each coping strategy were explored. Results revealed that maladaptive strategies were used more frequently than adaptive strategies, while parent routine as the most frequently used and efficacious for all age groups. Additionally, for adaptive strategies, humor and focusing on the positive had the strongest correlations between frequency and efficacy ratings amongst all age groups. Of the maladaptive strategies, repetitive behaviors, rumination, and isolation had the strongest correlations for the youngest, middle, and oldest age groups, respectively. Further, for each age group, the adaptive coping strategies had stronger correlations between frequency and efficacy than the maladaptive ones. It is our hope that the results of this study will lay the foundation for developing adaptive coping strategies to alleviate stress in children with ASD. Further investigations using a larger cohort are warranted to determine effective coping strategies for individuals with ASD across a range of situations, including acute stressors (such as future public health emergencies and natural disasters), as well as common daily stressors

Whither Capitalism? Financial externalities and crisis

As with global warming, so with financial crises – externalities have a lot to answer for. We look at three of them. First the financial accelerator due to ‘fire sales’ of collateral assets -- a form of pecuniary externality that leads to liquidity being undervalued. Second the ‘risk- shifting’ behaviour of highly-levered financial institutions who keep the upside of risky investment while passing the downside to others thanks to limited liability. Finally, the network externality where the structure of the financial industry helps propagate shocks around the system unless this is checked by some form of circuit breaker, or ‘ring-fence’. The contrast between crisis-induced Great Recession and its aftermath of slow growth in the West and the rapid - and (so far) sustained - growth in the East suggests that successful economic progress may depend on how well these externalities are managed