Factors Associated With Outcomes of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

We sought to identify factors that are predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real-world clinical setting. Analyzing data from 1,001 patients recruited to the UK-PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2-year and 10-year outcome through Cox-proportional hazards and C-statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short-term and long-term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totaling 451 patients. Thirty-six percent of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow-up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase of at least 2.4 × upper limit of normal at 1 year after diagnosis was predictive of 10-year outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.05; C = 0.63; median transplant-free survival 63 versus 108 months; P < 0.0001), as was the presence of extrahepatic biliary disease (HR = 1.45; P = 0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based on age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extrahepatic biliary disease, and variceal hemorrhage, which predicted 2-year and 10-year outcomes with good discrimination (C statistic = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). Both UK-PSC risk scores were well-validated in our external cohort and outperformed the Mayo Clinic and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores (C statistic = 0.75 and 0.63, respectively). Although heterozygosity for the previously validated human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR = 1.33; P = 0.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy of the UK-PSC risk scores. Conclusion: Our analyses, based on a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real-world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.Financial support has been received by National Institute of Health Research (RD-TRC and Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre), Isaac Newton Trust, Addenbrooke’s charitable trust, Norwegian PSC Research Center and PSC Support. GMH is supported by the Lily and Terry Horner Chair in Autoimmune Liver Disease Research, Toronto Centre for Liver Disease, Toronto

Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study

Objectives To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population.Design Population based cohort study.Setting British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only).Participants 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019.Main outcome measures Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates.Results 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates.Conclusion Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist

Response to DAA Therapy in the NHS England Early Access Programme for Rare HCV Subtypes from Low and Middle Income Countries

No abstract available

Liraglutide safety and efficacy in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (LEAN): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2 study

BackgroundGlucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogues reduce hepatic steatosis, concentrations of liver enzymes, and insulin resistance in murine models of fatty liver disease. These analogues are licensed for type 2 diabetes, but their efficacy in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis is unknown. We assessed the safety and efficacy of the long-acting GLP-1 analogue, liraglutide, in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis.MethodsThis multicentre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial was conducted in four UK medical centres to assess subcutaneous injections of liraglutide (1·8 mg daily) compared with placebo for patients who are overweight and show clinical evidence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using a computer-generated, centrally administered procedure, stratified by trial centre and diabetes status. The trial was designed using A'Hern's single-group method, which required eight (38%) of 21 successes in the liraglutide group for the effect of liraglutide to be considered clinically significant. Patients, investigators, clinical trial site staff, and pathologists were masked to treatment assignment throughout the study. The primary outcome measure was resolution of definite non-alcoholic steatohepatitis with no worsening in fibrosis from baseline to end of treatment (48 weeks), as assessed centrally by two independent pathologists. Analysis was done by intention-to-treat analysis, which included all patients who underwent end-of-treatment biopsy. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01237119.FindingsBetween Aug 1, 2010, and May 31, 2013, 26 patients were randomly assigned to receive liraglutide and 26 to placebo. Nine (39%) of 23 patients who received liraglutide and underwent end-of-treatment liver biopsy had resolution of definite non-alcoholic steatohepatitis compared with two (9%) of 22 such patients in the placebo group (relative risk 4·3 [95% CI 1·0–17·7]; p=0·019). Two (9%) of 23 patients in the liraglutide group versus eight (36%) of 22 patients in the placebo group had progression of fibrosis (0·2 [0·1–1·0]; p=0·04). Most adverse events were grade 1 (mild) to grade 2 (moderate) in severity, transient, and similar in the two treatment groups for all organ classes and symptoms, with the exception of gastrointestinal disorders in 21 (81%) of 23 patients in the liraglutide group and 17 (65%) of 22 patients in the placebo group, which included diarrhoea (ten [38%] patients in the liraglutide group vs five [19%] in the placebo group), constipation (seven [27%] vs none), and loss of appetite (eight [31%] vs two [8%]).InterpretationLiraglutide was safe, well tolerated, and led to histological resolution of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, warranting extensive, longer-term studies

The UK-PBC risk scores:Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: &gt;0.90).Conclusions: the prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care.</p