Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?

We contribute to the new, albeit fast-growing empirical literature on the determinants of trust in central banks. Like in most other studies we use panel data models based on the Eurobarometer survey on trust in the European Central Bank. Firstly, we confirm the main conclusion from previous studies that the trust in the ECB has suffered from the crisis’ outburst. Moreover, households perceive the ECB’s responsibility for the occurrence of the crisis to go beyond the responsibility of other institutions. This finding casts some doubt on the central bank’s ability to manage expectations in a country having been hit by a severe negative demand shock, while this ability is precondition of the central banks’ power to boost aggregate demand when its interest rates are at the zero lower bound. Secondly (and most importantly), in addition to previous studies, we examine the links between the trust in the ECB and its policy. Our main result is that when households have pessimistic expectations, aggressive cuts in interest rates have an adverse effect on their trust in central bank. This result is in accordance with the ‘lack-of-confidence shock’ hypothesis developed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2012) and go against the ‘fundamental shock’ hypothesis which would imply positive effects of aggressive cuts for trust in the ECB. These findings are robust to changes in the estimation method, the definition of the lack of confidence shock, control variables and countries under consideration. We also show that it cannot be easily rejected as spuriou

Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?

We contribute to the new, albeit fast-growing empirical literature on the determinants of trust in central banks. Like in most other studies we use panel data models based on the Eurobarometer survey on trust in the European Central Bank. Firstly, we confirm the main conclusion from previous studies that the trust in the ECB has suffered from the crisis’ outburst. Moreover, households perceive the ECB’s responsibility for the occurrence of the crisis to go beyond the responsibility of other institutions. This finding casts some doubt on the central bank’s ability to manage expectations in a country having been hit by a severe negative demand shock, while this ability is precondition of the central banks’ power to boost aggregate demand when its interest rates are at the zero lower bound. Secondly (and most importantly), in addition to previous studies, we examine the links between the trust in the ECB and its policy. Our main result is that when households have pessimistic expectations, aggressive cuts in interest rates have an adverse effect on their trust in central bank. This result is in accordance with the ‘lack-of-confidence shock’ hypothesis developed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2012) and go against the ‘fundamental shock’ hypothesis which would imply positive effects of aggressive cuts for trust in the ECB. These findings are robust to changes in the estimation method, the definition of the lack of confidence shock, control variables and countries under consideration. We also show that it cannot be easily rejected as spuriou

Monetary Policy and Polish Labour Market in the years 1999 - 2008

This article sets out to analyse how the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) determined the labour market situation in the country in the decade 1999-2008. The article consists of introduction as well as five sections. Section one discusses NBP's strategy of monetary policy in the defined period against monetary strategies implemented in other countries. Section two uses the growth rates of money supply and of real GDP to verify whether the primary purpose of monetary policy, i.e. the inflationary target, was achieved. Section three generally characterises the country's labour market using the levels and dynamics of employment and of unemployment. Section four discusses major instruments of NBP's monetary policy, mainly analysing changes in the central bank's interest rates and their effect on the economic situation and on the labour market. The article concludes with a summation providing synthetic conclusions.Celem artykułu jest analiza wpływu polityki monetarnej Narodowego Banku Polskiego (NBP) na sytuację na rynku pracy w Polsce w ciągu dekady obejmującej lata 1999-2008. Opracowanie składa się z wprowadzenia oraz pięciu części. W pierwszej z nich omówiona została strategia polityki monetarnej NBP w badanym okresie wraz z porównaniem ze strategią przyjmowaną w innych krajach. W części drugiej sprawdzono, czy realizowany był podstawowy cel polityki monetarnej, czyli cel inflacyjny, w kontekście kształtowania się stóp wzrostu podaży pieniądza oraz realnego PKB. W punkcie kolejnym ukazana została ogólna charakterystyka rynku pracy na podstawie kształtowania się poziomu i dynamiki zatrudnienia oraz bezrobocia. W części czwartej omówiono podstawowe instrumenty polityki pieniężnej NBP. Uwaga skoncentrowana została głównie na analizie zmian stóp procentowych banku centralnego oraz ich wpływu na sytuację gospodarczą i rynek pracy. Całość zamknięta została podsumowaniem, w którym zawarto syntetyczne wnioski końcowe

Potential impact of more progressive labour taxation on the labour input in Poland

W artykule oceniamy potencjalny wpływ wprowadzenia jednolitej daniny zwiększającej progresywność klina podatkowego w Polsce na podaż pracy. Wykorzystując wnioski z literatury dotyczącej elastyczności podaży pracy oraz ekonometryczną analizę danych z Badania Aktywności Ekonomicznej Ludności, wskazujemy grupy osób, których podaż pracy mogłaby się zauważalnie zmienić w efekcie zmian opodatkowania. Taka reforma stanowiłaby istotny bodziec do zwiększenia aktywności zawodowej ok. 2,85 mln osób, których płace netto wzrosłyby. Spadku podaży pracy można się spodziewać w grupie ok. 220 tys. osób.We assess the potential labour input effects of a reform increasing the progressivity of labour taxation in Poland. We combine findings from the literature on labour input elasticity and estimates from the Labour Force Survey data to identify those groups of people whose labour input may noticeably alter in response to the changes in taxation. We have found that about 2.85 million people would increase their labour input in response to higher net wages. About 220 thousand people may reduce labour input as their net wages would decline

Investment responses to tax policy under uncertainty

How does economic uncertainty affect investment responses to tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich administrative data, we find that, under low uncertainty, tax incentives have strong positive effects on average investment. Under high uncertainty, however, the story is different: there is vast heterogeneity in investment responses, with the firms that are sheltered from elevated uncertainty still responding strongly to the policy, and the firms that are exposed to high uncertainty driving a drop in responses. This implies that periods of stability offer an important policy opportunity to encourage investment, and that the impact of stimulus in crises depends on the distribution of firms in their exposure to elevated uncertainty