Treatment of relative permeabilities for application in hydrocarbon reservoir simulation model

Mjerenje relativnih propusnosti i njihova analiza i modifikacija pomoću odgovarajućih modela relativnih propusnosti predstavljaju jedan od temelja za izradu simulacijskih modela ležišta i njihovu verifikaciju. Uz to je vezan pažljiv izbor tih krivulja uz uvjet da postoji statistički dovoljno relevantan skup sličnih krivulja za odabrano ležište ili za pojedine tipove stijena unutar istog ležišta. Da bi se te krivulje mogle pravilno primijeniti pri simulaciji ležišta, prethodno je potrebno dobro poznavanje svih parametara ležišne stijene, tj. šupljikavosti, apsolutnih i efektivnih propusnosti, zasićenja, itd. Svrha ovog rada je prikaz postupaka mjerenja krivulja relativnih propusnosti i metoda analize eksperimentom dobivenih podataka pomoću različitih modela koji opisuju te podatke da bi se mogli što kvalitetnije primijeniti kod numeričke simulacije ležišta. Vezano uz to, u završnom dijelu ovog rada je kroz konkretan primjer izložen postupak analize i obrade podataka relativnih propusnosti u svrhu pripreme za model ležišta ugljikovodika.Measurements of relative permeabilities and their analysis and modification by means of appropriate relative permeability models represent one of the bases for development and verification of reservoir simulation models. It requires careful selection of these curves providing that a statistically sufficiently relevant groups of similar curves are available for the selected reservoir or for individual rock types within the same reservoir. In order to be able to correctly apply these curves in reservoir simulations, previous knowledge of all reservoir rock parameters is required, i.e. porosity, absolute and effective permeability, saturation, etc. Objective of the paper is to present procedures of relative permeability curve measurements and analysis methods of data experimentally obtained from different models which describe such data, to be able to apply them with high degree of quality in numerical reservoir simulations. In that regard, the final part of the paper through a concrete example shows the procedure of relative permeability data analysis and their processing for application in hydrocarbon reservoir model construction

Causes of solvent slug decrease during oil displacement processes under miscible conditions, with a review of simulation aspects of such processes

U ovom radu ukratko su obrađeni efekti difuzije i disperzije i drugi efekti prisutni tijekom procesa istiskivanja nafte tekućinama podatljivim miješanju, odnosno otapalima. Prilikom tih procesa dolazi do značajnog povećanja iscrpka nafte, ali istovremeno i do smanjivanja, a moguće i potpunog gubljenja čepa otapala. Kod projektiranja ovakvih procesa od iznimne je važnosti određivanje optimalne veličine čepa otapala koji je u direktnom kontaktu s ležišnim fluidima i gdje je spomenute efekte potrebno uzeti u obzir. Pri tome primjena simulacije ležišta kao prognozne metode proračuna dodatnog iscrpka može biti od pomoći ukoliko je dovoljno kvalitetnih podataka, npr. na osnovi laboratorijskih mjerenja na jezgrama, zatim tzv. slim-tube testova i/ili pilot ispitivanja reprezentativnih dijelova ležišta, raspoloživo za pojedini simulacijski projekt, a osvrt na to je dat u završnom dijelu teksta.The paper briefly describes the effects of diffusion and dispersion and other effects present during the oil displacement processes with miscible fluids, i.e. solvents. Recovery of oil is significantly improved during the application of such processes, but at the same time accompanied with decrease or even total loss of solvent slug. When designing such processes, particular attention should be paid to determine optimum slug size that is in direct contact with reservoir fluids, and where the mentioned effects have to be taken into consideration. Thereby the application of reservoir simulation, as a prediction method for calculation of incremental recovery, can be useful if sufficient high-quality data, such as laboratory core analyses, slim-tube tests and/or pilot tests performed on representative parts of the reservoir, are available for a particular simulation project, and the review of that is given in the final part of the text

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

In-situ estimation of ice crystal properties at the South Pole using LED calibration data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory instruments about 1 km3 of deep, glacial ice at the geographic South Pole using 5160 photomultipliers to detect Cherenkov light emitted by charged relativistic particles. A unexpected light propagation effect observed by the experiment is an anisotropic attenuation, which is aligned with the local flow direction of the ice. Birefringent light propagation has been examined as a possible explanation for this effect. The predictions of a first-principles birefringence model developed for this purpose, in particular curved light trajectories resulting from asymmetric diffusion, provide a qualitatively good match to the main features of the data. This in turn allows us to deduce ice crystal properties. Since the wavelength of the detected light is short compared to the crystal size, these crystal properties do not only include the crystal orientation fabric, but also the average crystal size and shape, as a function of depth. By adding small empirical corrections to this first-principles model, a quantitatively accurate description of the optical properties of the IceCube glacial ice is obtained. In this paper, we present the experimental signature of ice optical anisotropy observed in IceCube LED calibration data, the theory and parametrization of the birefringence effect, the fitting procedures of these parameterizations to experimental data as well as the inferred crystal properties.</p

Non-standard neutrino interactions in IceCube

Non-standard neutrino interactions (NSI) may arise in various types of new physics. Their existence would change the potential that atmospheric neutrinos encounter when traversing Earth matter and hence alter their oscillation behavior. This imprint on coherent neutrino forward scattering can be probed using high-statistics neutrino experiments such as IceCube and its low-energy extension, DeepCore. Both provide extensive data samples that include all neutrino flavors, with oscillation baselines between tens of kilometers and the diameter of the Earth. DeepCore event energies reach from a few GeV up to the order of 100 GeV - which marks the lower threshold for higher energy IceCube atmospheric samples, ranging up to 10 TeV. In DeepCore data, the large sample size and energy range allow us to consider not only flavor-violating and flavor-nonuniversal NSI in the μ−τ sector, but also those involving electron flavor. The effective parameterization used in our analyses is independent of the underlying model and the new physics mass scale. In this way, competitive limits on several NSI parameters have been set in the past. The 8 years of data available now result in significantly improved sensitivities. This improvement stems not only from the increase in statistics but also from substantial improvement in the treatment of systematic uncertainties, background rejection and event reconstruction

TXS 0506+056 with Updated IceCube Data

Past results from the IceCube Collaboration have suggested that the blazar TXS 0506+056 is a potential source of astrophysical neutrinos. However, in the years since there have been numerous updates to event processing and reconstruction, as well as improvements to the statistical methods used to search for astrophysical neutrino sources. These improvements in combination with additional years of data have resulted in the identification of NGC 1068 as a second neutrino source candidate. This talk will re-examine time-dependent neutrino emission from TXS 0506+056 using the most recent northern-sky data sample that was used in the analysis of NGC 1068. The results of using this updated data sample to obtain a significance and flux fit for the 2014 TXS 0506+056 "untriggered" neutrino flare are reported

Galactic Core-Collapse Supernovae at IceCube: “Fire Drill” Data Challenges and follow-up

The next Galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make astrophysical measurements using neutrinos, gravitational waves, and electromagnetic radiation. CCSNe local to the Milky Way are extremely rare, so it is paramount that detectors are prepared to observe the signal when it arrives. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory, a gigaton water Cherenkov detector below the South Pole, is sensitive to the burst of neutrinos released by a Galactic CCSN at a level >10σ. This burst of neutrinos precedes optical emission by hours to days, enabling neutrinos to serve as an early warning for follow-up observation. IceCube\u27s detection capabilities make it a cornerstone of the global network of neutrino detectors monitoring for Galactic CCSNe, the SuperNova Early Warning System (SNEWS 2.0). In this contribution, we describe IceCube\u27s sensitivity to Galactic CCSNe and strategies for operational readiness, including "fire drill" data challenges. We also discuss coordination with SNEWS 2.0