GIS-based Spatial Analysis of Population Density in Kuwait, 1957 to 2020

Population density is among the most insightful demographical metrics for urban planners, land developers and researchers in the geography sector. In this article, a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework is designed to study the spatial and temporal population density trends and investigate whether any notable patterns may be attributed to the socioeconomic factors prevalent in each period. The methodology involves collecting spatial population data over time and using GIS to overlay the population density changes against various socioeconomic parameters in Kuwait. The results indicate that the population density is strongly correlated to the national and international economic and political conditions of each respective period. Furthermore, the population tended to form high density clusters. The findings suggest that future development shall aim to address the impacts of high population density, and the effects of the pandemic and global energy and economic turbulence on Kuwait’s labor market and lifestyle over 2020-2022

Modelling future impacts of urban development in Kuwait with the use of ABM and GIS

During the last six decades, Kuwait has experienced rapid and unprecedented population growth with only a small increase in the urban areas. The alarming rise in urban density in Kuwait has caused issues for the residents' lifestyles, the economy and the environment. These issues have been aggravated by urban planning which perpetuated a city-centric urban form without modelling the impacts of current patterns of urban growth. A spatial model using Agent Based Modelling (ABM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is proposed to model disaggregate future changes in land-use patterns given forecast population estimates and planning policies. The two main impacts considered are housing shortage and traffic congestion, as these are the two most significant social impacts for Kuwaitis. This article discusses the design methodology and parameterization of the ABM and the agent groups. It characterizes urban growth by rules for different citizen groups, historical growth patterns and the influence of decision-makers. The model is validated against data for the period 1995-2015 and simulations run to 2050; the results predict that continued city-centric growth will aggravate the problems, with more than 50% increase in housing shortage and congestion unless the government intervenes to rectify the situation

Projection for new city future scenarios – a case study for Kuwait

The creation of new cities is a planning approach adopted in several regions around the world, in order to accommodate urban growth. New cities are typically constructed according to well-thought out, centralised plans in areas without any prior development. However, whether the development of these new cities is able to address existing urban issues more effectively than traditional methods such as intensification, is currently an unanswered research question. Several Arabian Gulf countries, such as Kuwait are considering the construction of new cities to address urban issues, specifically the traffic congestion and housing shortages. In Kuwait, the master plan for these construction projects was developed solely by state authorities without any public participation or urban modelling that may have provided a more well-rounded view of the potential impacts and effectiveness. This paper aims to address these research opportunities of investigating the effectiveness of new cities in addressing traffic congestion and housing shortage, as well as the potential to integrate public opinions in urban development in the form of a model. Towards that end, the study proposes an Agent Based Model (ABM) that will allow simulating the population distribution and urban growth impacts of new cities in Kuwait by 2050. The methodology involves collecting primary data via interviewing the key government stakeholders of urban development and surveying the residents in order to collect the model inputs. In Kuwait's society, citizens and non-citizens form two distinct resident groups with often very diverse needs and lifestyles; hence the survey responses will differentiate between them. The data from the interviews and surveys from both resident groups will be incorporated as agent behaviours in the ABM. The simulations examine a multitude of scenarios for the new cities, involving construction delays and infrastructure project delays. The results indicate that the impacts of constructing new cities will be favourable across all different scenarios in terms of alleviating the traffic congestion and housing shortage compared to a business as usual approach of existing urban centre expansion. Furthermore, the survey responses confirm that the resident perspectives closely align with the government's priorities in the master plan for the new cities, further improving the chances for the successful project implementation. The methodology and findings may be applied in cities in the Gulf area or elsewhere with similar urban issues

Modelling the impacts of current patterns of urban form expansion in Kuwait with the use of ABM and GIS

During the last six decades Kuwait City has experienced a rapid and unpreceded population growth with only a small increase in the respective urban area. This is largely due to the discovery of oil and arrival of thousands of new immigrants. The alarming rise in the urban density has caused issues for the residents' lifestyle, the economy and the environment. Historically, urban planning decisions in Kuwait were based on a series of “Master Plans” implemented by the government. Generally the plans, the last of which was formulated in 1997, promoted concentrated high density development in the city's Central Business District (CBD), and resulted into a low density urban sprawl expanding outwards in a radial fashion. A significant disadvantage of this top-down approach is the lack of inclusion of the citizens' suggestions and opinions, unlike similar expansion and planning policies in Western cities. Furthermore, the plans failed to incorporate measures to successfully accommodate the increase of vehicles and high traffic density, resulting into severe congestion issues and commuting times. Additionally, land development constraints set by the plans in combination with the increase of Kuwaiti citizens eligible to apply for housing welfare, caused a considerable increase of waiting times for receiving the government grants and drove property prices to levels out of reach for the majority of population. Pressure caused by these matters, has caused several protests in Kuwait, making the analysis of the impacts of current patterns of urban form expansion critical. To predict the future effects of the continuation of the existing pattern of urban growth in Kuwait on congestion and housing shortage a series of simulations based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is proposed. ABM provides a mean to evaluate decisions by different citizen groups on their settlement patterns and interactions with other groups, such as the developers and the government. The simulations are able to receive and overlay GIS data inputs related to land use, transport networks, and demographics. The simulations have a horizon of 35 years (up to 2050). This paper discusses the rationale, design methodology and parameterisation of the ABM and the agent groups that constitute the framework. The base set of rules governing the behaviour of the agent groups was derived after analysing real data from historical Kuwait archives. The analysis findings are outlined in this paper. The findings imply that there are significant inherent correlations between urban form expansion and urban transportation quality as well as land use distribution. Using the historical trends as a guide for future expansion and assuming linear development along the current transportation networks it is possible to obtain five yearly predictions for the future state of: • Land use and development ratio • Accessibility to transportation networks, work, shopping centres, services and infrastructure • Population growth, distribution patterns and density. The analysis of the simulation outputs will enable the generation of a set of predictions for the impacts on congestion and housing shortage in Kuwait. The outputs of the model will also enable the evaluation of the centroid urban form expansion and can form a basis for reference for developing alternative urban planning and expansion policies not just in Kuwait, but in other modern cities especially ones that experienced rapid radial growth around their CBD. The proposed model with appropriate modifications will also be applied for simulating two alternative scenarios of urban form expansion in Kuwait in future work, hence allowing a quantitative comparison of urban planning strategies

Accounting for peoples’ preferences in establishing new cities: a spatial model of population migration in Kuwait

Modelling of internal migration to new cities is challenging, yet necessary to ensure that these newly established urban areas will be populated and function as intended. In the State of Kuwait, there is a unique set of push and pull factors: government subsidised housing for citizens, the existence of a single urban area, and the initiation of a new and ambitious master plan for the construction of 12 new cities, which are expected to attract not only locals, but also international residents and businesses. On top of these factors, there is an unusual demographic situation, as non-citizens outnumber Kuwaiti citizens by a factor of 2.3, with these groups having widely different preferences in terms of housing. Currently, there is no plan to take these resident groups' opinions into consideration for the new cities project. Besides, the current study simulates the impacts of the involvement of residents in urban planning. Samples from resident groups (citizens and non-citizens) participated in targeted surveys and useful answers were extracted in relation to the migration likelihood, push and pull factors that may affect their decisions, spatial preferences for new cities and their opinions on segregation by nationality. Specifically, the survey results showed significant interest of residents in moving to the new cities. For citizens, the most important factors in deciding whether to move or not were proximity to their close family and housing availability, while for non-citizens the most important factor was the creation of new employment opportunities. Both survey groups agreed that existing city property prices are too high and make the prospect of moving to a new city more attractive. The responses were transferred in an Agent Based Model, and the simulations showed certain differences to the official projections for 2050 without the public responses, in regards to the geographical distribution of the most desirable suburbs. Furthermore, the simulations showed that in the new cities, nationality segregation levels are expected to drop by at least 15% compared to the 2015 levels. The findings may be utilised by the authorities to modify the master plan accordingly