Dynamic Visual Abstraction of Soccer Movement

Trajectory-based visualization of coordinated movement data within a bounded area, such as player and ball movement within a soccer pitch, can easily result in visual crossings, overplotting, and clutter. Trajectory abstraction can help to cope with these issues, but it is a challenging problem to select the right level of abstraction (LoA) for a given data set and analysis task. We present a novel dynamic approach that combines trajectory simplification and clustering techniques with the goal to support interpretation and understanding of movement patterns. Our technique provides smooth transitions between different abstraction types that can be computed dynamically and on-the-fly. This enables the analyst to effectively navigate and explore the space of possible abstractions in large trajectory data sets. Additionally, we provide a proof of concept for supporting the analyst in determining the LoA semi-automatically with a recommender system. Our approach is illustrated and evaluated by case studies, quantitative measures, and expert feedback. We further demonstrate that it allows analysts to solve a variety of analysis tasks in the domain of soccer

A clock network for geodesy and fundamental science

Leveraging the unrivaled performance of optical clocks in applications in fundamental physics beyond the standard model, in geo-sciences, and in astronomy requires comparing the frequency of distant optical clocks truthfully. Meeting this requirement, we report on the first comparison and agreement of fully independent optical clocks separated by 700 km being only limited by the uncertainties of the clocks themselves. This is achieved by a phase-coherent optical frequency transfer via a 1415 km long telecom fiber link that enables substantially better precision than classical means of frequency transfer. The fractional precision in comparing the optical clocks of three parts in $10^{17}$ was reached after only 1000 s averaging time, which is already 10 times better and more than four orders of magnitude faster than with any other existing frequency transfer method. The capability of performing high resolution international clock comparisons paves the way for a redefinition of the unit of time and an all-optical dissemination of the SI-second.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Ultra-stable optical clock with two cold-atom ensembles

Atomic clocks based on optical transitions are the most stable, and therefore precise, timekeepers available. These clocks operate by alternating intervals of atomic interrogation with dead time required for quantum state preparation and readout. This non-continuous interrogation of the atom system results in the Dick effect, an aliasing of frequency noise of the laser interrogating the atomic transition. Despite recent advances in optical clock stability achieved by improving laser coherence, the Dick effect has continually limited optical clock performance. Here we implement a robust solution to overcome this limitation: a zero-dead-time optical clock based on the interleaved interrogation of two cold-atom ensembles. This clock exhibits vanishingly small Dick noise, thereby achieving an unprecedented fractional frequency instability of $6 \times 10^{-17} / \sqrt{\tau}$ for an averaging time $\tau$ in seconds. We also consider alternate dual-atom-ensemble schemes to extend laser coherence and reduce the standard quantum limit of clock stability, achieving a spectroscopy line quality factor $Q> 4 \times 10^{15}$

Geodesy and metrology with a transportable optical clock

partially_open24openGrotti, Jacopo; Koller, Silvio; Vogt, Stefan; Häfner, Sebastian; Sterr, Uwe; Lisdat, Christian; Denker, Heiner; Voigt, Christian; Timmen, Ludger; Rolland, Antoine; Baynes, Fred N.; Margolis, Helen S.; Zampaolo, Michel; Thoumany, Pierre; Pizzocaro, Marco; Rauf, Benjamin; Bregolin, Filippo; Tampellini, Anna; Barbieri, Piero; Zucco, Massimo; Costanzo, Giovanni A.; Clivati, Cecilia; Levi, Filippo; Calonico, DavideGrotti, Jacopo; Koller, Silvio; Vogt, Stefan; Häfner, Sebastian; Sterr, Uwe; Lisdat, Christian; Denker, Heiner; Voigt, Christian; Timmen, Ludger; Rolland, Antoine; Baynes, Fred N.; Margolis, Helen S.; Zampaolo, Michel; Thoumany, Pierre; Pizzocaro, Marco; Rauf, Benjamin; Bregolin, Filippo; Tampellini, Anna; Barbieri, Piero; Zucco, Massimo; Costanzo, Giovanni A.; Clivati, Cecilia; Levi, Filippo; Calonico, David

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe