Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015 : A modelling study

Publisher Copyright: © 2017 Elsevier LtdBackground The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013.Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data.Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insuffi cient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively).Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus infection disease burden - volume 3.

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the pageThe hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995).Gilead Sciences Center for Disease Analysi

Borislav Runanine as the Friend of the Prince (centre), Tamara Toumanova as the Queen of the Swans (centre), Paul Petroff as the Prince (centre right), and artists of the company, in Le lac des cygnes, the Original Ballet Russe, Australian tour, His Majesty's Theatre, Melbourne, 1940 [picture] /

From: Le lac des cygnes (Swan lake) : choreographic poem in one act / music by Peter Ilich Tchaikovsky; Part of the collection: Hugh P. Hall collection of photographs, 1938-1940.; Performed March and April 1940. No number on front. 3P/9 on reverse.; Choreography after M. Petipa ; scenery and costumes by C. Korovine ; scenery executed by O. Allegri.; Also available in an electronic version via the internet at: http://nla.gov.au/nla.pic-vn4175672. One of a collection of photographs taken by Hugh P. Hall of 28 ballet productions performed by the Covent Garden Russian Ballet (toured Australia 1938-1939) and the Original Ballet Russe (toured Australia 1939-1940). These are the second and third of the three Ballets Russes companies which toured Australasia between 1936 and 1940. The photographs were taken from the auditorium during a live performance in His Majesty's Theatre, Melbourne and mounted on cardboard for display purposes. For conservation and storage, the photographs have been demounted. The original arrangement of the photographs has been recorded, and details are available from the Pictures Branch of the National Library

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 3.

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the pageDetailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden.Gilead Sciences Center for Disease Analysi