The Effect of Shocks on the Current and Future Behavior of Sudan Economy: Autoregressive Moving-average Approach

This paper attempts to achieve two core objectives. Firstly, it aims to synthesize the information contained in the different expenditure components of GDP for developing a set of Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to examine the effect of shocks on the current and subsequent cyclical deviations of Sudan real GDP from what is trending. Secondly, it aims to compare the intensity of those cyclical deviations within the reviewed period (1970-2010) and outside it. ARMA models of different orders are experimented to distinguish, empirically, whether the effect of shocks is transient or permanent and lasts for a long period of time. The major result is that the lingering effect of shocks is permanent causing intensified deviation from the trend outside the reviewed period

Parametrization of stochastic inputs using generative adversarial networks with application in geology

We investigate artificial neural networks as a parametrization tool for stochastic inputs in numerical simulations. We address parametrization from the point of view of emulating the data generating process, instead of explicitly constructing a parametric form to preserve predefined statistics of the data. This is done by training a neural network to generate samples from the data distribution using a recent deep learning technique called generative adversarial networks. By emulating the data generating process, the relevant statistics of the data are replicated. The method is assessed in subsurface flow problems, where effective parametrization of underground properties such as permeability is important due to the high dimensionality and presence of high spatial correlations. We experiment with realizations of binary channelized subsurface permeability and perform uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation. Results show that the parametrization using generative adversarial networks is very effective in preserving visual realism as well as high order statistics of the flow responses, while achieving a dimensionality reduction of two orders of magnitude

Seismic anisotropy and mantle flow beneath Africa and Arabia

In spite of numerous studies, the mechanisms for the rifting, uplifting, and volcanism on the African plate remain enigmatic. The most popular hypotheses proposed for explaining these tectonic phenomena involve edge-driven small-scale mantle convection and the thermal or dynamic effects of one or more mantle plumes. In this study we use continental scale shear-wave splitting (SWS) measurements to provide additional constraints on the various models of rifting, uplifting, and volcanism of the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL) and the Arabian plate. The splitting of P-to-S converted phases at the core-mantle boundary on the receiver side (XKS including PKS, SKKS, and SKS) is one of the most effective approaches to constrain convective mantle flow patterns. A robust procedure involving automatic and manual batch processing to reliably assess and objectively rank shear-wave splitting parameters were used. The resulting 1532 pairs of splitting parameters show a NNE dominated fast direction. Spatial distribution of the splitting parameters in the CVL and Arabia is not consistent with the edge-driven small-scale mantle convection hypothesis, the mantle plume hypothesis, fossil fabrics formed by past tectonic events, or the fabric-forming process due to the absolute plate motion relative to the deep mantle. The research suggests that the progressive thinning of the lithosphere through basal erosion by the flow leads to decompression melting is responsible for the formation of the CVL, and olivine lattice preferred orientation in the upper asthenosphere associated with the northward motion of the African plate since 150 Ma, most likely causes the observed anisotropy across the Red Sea. --Abstract, page iv

A systematic approach for developing course learning outcomes to fulfill accreditation requirements in Malaysia

Writing appropriate learning outcomes is crucial to course design. Properly written outcomes aids the design of other course elements such as delivery methods and assessment. This paper proposes a systematic approach for writing learning outcomes. The proposed procedure takes advantage of the hierarchical structure of the programme building components. When applied, the procedure helps meet some of the accreditation requirements imposed by the Malaysian Engineering Accreditation Council such as explicit assessment of programme outcomes. Key to success is the careful mapping between course components. Besides, the procedure simplifies course design consequently leading to continual improvement. The procedure can be applied to wide range engineering courses. It also gives more control on planning a balanced assessment

The impact of time and power allocation on the performance of the three-node decode and-forward relay channel

Relying has in use for decades to tackle some of the challenges of wireless communication such as extending transmitting distance, transmitting over rough terrains. Relaying also achieve diversity which was proposed recently as an effective means to combat channel fading. In this work, effect of time and power allocation on relay performance is studied. The channel considered is the three-node channel with half-duplex constraint on the relay. The relaying technique assumed is decode-and-forward. Mutual information is used as the criteria to measure channel performance whereas noise is assumed to be the primary channel impairment. After deriving suitable formula for the mutual information as a function of time and power allocation, numerical results are obtained. Results have shown that the importance of relaying is more apparent when more resources are allocated to the relay. It was also shown that quality of the source to destination link has direct impact on the decision to relay or not to relay. Relatively good source to destination channel makes relaying less useful. The opposite is true for the other two links, namely the source to relay channel and the relay to destination channel. When these two channels are good, relaying becomes advantageous

Pre-trained based CNN model to identify finger vein

In current biometric security systems using images for security authentication, finger vein-based systems are getting special attention in particular attributable to the facts such as insurance of data confidentiality and higher accuracy. Previous studies were mostly based on finger-print, palm vein etc. however, due to being more secure than fingerprint system and due to the fact that each person's finger vein is different from others finger vein are impossible to use to do forgery as veins reside under the skin. The system that we worked on functions by recognizing vein patterns from images of fingers which are captured using near Infrared (NIR) technology. Due to the lack of an available database, we created and used our own dataset which was pre-trained using transfer learning of AlexNet model and verification is done by applying correct as well as incorrect test images. The result of deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based several experimental results are shown with training accuracy, training loss, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve and Area Under the Curve (AUC)

District Health System now more than ever: A lesson From The Past- Sudan

Efforts to increase access to primary health care are ongoing in Sudan. Many health facilities were established and many health personnel were trained. As time passes, there is great concern about the sustainability as well as the effectiveness of these services due to lack of efficient local health system.  With the establishment of federal system, Sudan was divided into states and localities with division of responsibilities between different levels. Health, in most of the cases, is the responsibility of states and localities. Tremendous efforts are going on to develop the capacity of states with few attempts to develop the local health system. This short communication aims to through light on the experience of health area policy in Sudan. The concentration will be on the experience of Umshanig health area (1982 -1986), East Gezira which is the first in Sudan. Though the time was change, still lessons can be obtained from this experience