Estimating cluster-level local average treatment effects in cluster randomised trials with non-adherence

Non-adherence to assigned treatment is a common issue in cluster randomised trials (CRTs). In these settings, the efficacy estimand may be also of interest. Many methodological contributions in recent years have advocated using instrumental variables to identify and estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE). However, the clustered nature of randomisation in CRTs adds to the complexity of such analyses. In this paper, we show that under certain assumptions, the LATE can be estimated via two-stage least squares (TSLS) using cluster-level summaries of outcomes and treatment received. Implementation needs to account for this, as well as the possible heteroscedasticity, to obtain valid inferences. We use simulations to assess the performance of TSLS of cluster-level summaries under cluster-level or individual-level non-adherence, with and without weighting and robust standard errors. We also explore the impact of adjusting for cluster-level covariates and of appropriate degrees of freedom correction for inference. We find that TSLS estimation using cluster-level summaries provides estimates with small to negligible bias and coverage close to nominal level, provided small sample degrees of freedom correction is used for inference, with appropriate use of robust standard errors. We illustrate the methods by re-analysing a CRT in UK primary health settings.Comment: 21 pages, 6 Figure

Reporting non-adherence in cluster randomised trials: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Treatment non-adherence in randomised trials refers to situations where some participants do not receive their allocated treatment as intended. For cluster randomised trials, where the unit of randomisation is a group of participants, non-adherence may occur at the cluster or individual level. When non-adherence occurs, randomisation no longer guarantees that the relationship between treatment receipt and outcome is unconfounded, and the power to detect the treatment effects in intention-to-treat analysis may be reduced. Thus, recording adherence and estimating the causal treatment effect adequately are of interest for clinical trials. OBJECTIVES: To assess the extent of reporting of non-adherence issues in published cluster trials and to establish which methods are currently being used for addressing non-adherence, if any, and whether clustering is accounted for in these. METHODS: We systematically reviewed 132 cluster trials published in English in 2011 previously identified through a search in PubMed. RESULTS: One-hundred and twenty three cluster trials were included in this systematic review. Non-adherence was reported in 56 cluster trials. Among these, 19 reported a treatment efficacy estimate: per protocol in 15 and as treated in 4. No study discussed the assumptions made by these methods, their plausibility or the sensitivity of the results to deviations from these assumptions. LIMITATIONS: The year of publication of the cluster trials included in this review (2011) could be considered a limitation of this study; however, no new guidelines regarding the reporting and the handling of non-adherence for cluster trials have been published since. In addition, a single reviewer undertook the data extraction. To mitigate this, a second reviewer conducted a validation of the extraction process on 15 randomly selected reports. Agreement was satisfactory (93%). CONCLUSION: Despite the recommendations of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement extension to cluster randomised trials, treatment adherence is under-reported. Among the trials providing adherence information, there was substantial variation in how adherence was defined, handled and reported. Researchers should discuss the assumptions required for the results to be interpreted causally and whether these are scientifically plausible in their studies. Sensitivity analyses to study the robustness of the results to departures from these assumptions should be performed

High blood pressure and associated risk factors as indicator of preclinical hypertension in rural West Africa: A focus on children and adolescents in The Gambia.

Hypertension is fast becoming a major public health problem across sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to determine the prevalence of high blood pressure (BP) and associated risk factors as indicator of preclinical hypertension in a rural Gambian population.We analyzed data on 6160 healthy Gambians cross-sectionally. Attention was given to 5 to <18-year olds (N = 3637), as data from sub-Saharan Africa on this young age group are scarce. High BP was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) above the 95th percentile for age-sex specific height z scores in <18-year olds employing population-specific reference values. Standard high BP categories were applied to ≥18-year olds.In <18-year olds, the multivariable analysis gave an adjusted high BP prevalence ratio of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-0.98; P = 0.002) for age and 1.13 (95% CI 1.06-1.19; P < 0.0001) for weight-for-height z score (zWT-HT); sex and hemoglobin were not shown to affect high BP. In adults age 1.05 (95% CI 1.04-1.05; P < 0.0001), body mass index z score 1.28 (95% CI 1.16-1.40; P < 0.0001), hemoglobin 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.96; P < 0.0001) and high fasting glucose 2.60 (95% CI 2.02-3.36; P < 0.0001, though the number was very low) were confirmed as risk factors for high BP prevalence; sex was not associated.The reported high BP prevalence and associated risk factors in adults are comparable to other studies conducted in the region. The observed high BP prevalence of 8.2% (95% CI 7.4-9.2) in our generally lean young Gambians (<18 years) is alarming, given that high BP tracks from childhood to adulthood. Hence there is an urgent need for further investigation into risk factors of pediatric high BP/hypertension even in rural African settings

Under-five mortality in The Gambia: Comparison of the results of the first demographic and health survey with those from existing inquiries.

BACKGROUND: In The Gambia, national estimates of under-five mortality (U5M) were from censuses and multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS). The country's first demographic and health survey (DHS) conducted in 2013 provided empirical disaggregated national estimates of neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality trends. OBJECTIVE: To assess the consistency and accuracy of the estimates of U5M from the existing data sources and its age-specific components in rural Gambia and produce reliable up-to-date estimates. METHODS: Available national data on under-five mortality from 2000 onwards were extracted. Additionally, data from two DHS regions were compared to those from two health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) located within them. Indirect and direct estimates from the data were compared and flexible parametric survival methods used to predict mortality rates for all empirical data points up to 2015. FINDINGS: Internal consistency checks on data quality for indirect estimation of U5M suggest that the data were plausible at national level once information from women aged 15-19 years was excluded. The DHS and HDSS data used to make direct U5M estimates were plausible, however HDSS data were of better quality. For 2009-2013, the DHS estimates agreed well with the 2013 census and 2010 MICS reports of U5M but was less accurate about the early births of older women. The most recent estimates from the 2013 DHS, which refer to 2011-12, are an U5M rate of 54/1000 livebirths (95% CI: 43-64) and a neonatal mortality rate of 21/1000 livebirths (95% CI: 15-27), contributing almost 40% of U5M in The Gambia. The DHS showed that for the decade prior to the survey, child mortality dropped by 55% and neonatal mortality by 31%. This indicates the importance of neonatal mortality in The Gambia, and the need to focus on neonatal survival, while maintaining currently successful strategies to further reduce U5M

Kinetics of antibodies against pneumococcal proteins and their relationship to nasopharyngeal carriage in the first two months of life.

INTRODUCTION: The currently used Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccines have had a significant impact on the pneumococcal diseases caused by the serotypes they cover. Their limitations have stimulated a search for alternate vaccines that will cover all serotypes, be affordable and effective in young children. Pneumococcal protein antigens are potential vaccine candidates that may meet some of the shortfalls of the current vaccines. Thus, this study aimed to determine the relationship between antibodies against pneumococcal protein antigens and nasopharyngeal carriage in infants. METHODS: One hundred and twenty mother-infant pairs were enrolled into the study. They had nasopharyngeal swabs(NPS) taken at birth and every two weeks for the first eight weeks after delivery, and blood samples were obtained at birth and every four weeks for the first eight weeks after delivery. Nasopharyngeal carriage of S. pneumoniae was determined from the NPS and antibodies against the pneumococcal proteins CbpA, PspA and rPly were measured in the blood samples. RESULTS: The S. pneumoniae carriage rate in infants increased to that of mothers by eight weeks of age. The odds of carriage in infants was 6.2 times (95% CI: 2.0-18.9) higher when their mothers were also carriers. Bacterial density in infants was lower at birth compared to their mothers (p = 0.004), but increased with age and became higher than that of their mothers at weeks 4 (p = 0.009), 6 (p = 0.002) and 8 (p<0.0001). At birth, the infants' antibodies against CbpA, and rPly pneumococcal protein antigens were similar, but that of PspA was lower (p<0.0001), compared to their mothers. Higher antibody concentrations to CbpA [OR (95% CI): 0.49 (0.26-0.92, p = 0.03)], but not PspA and rPly, were associated with protection against carriage in the infants. CONCLUSION: Naturally induced antibodies against the three pneumococcal protein antigens were transferred from mother to child. The proportion of infants with nasopharyngeal carriage and the bacterial density of S. pneumoniae increased with age within the first eight weeks of life. Higher concentrations of antibodies against CbpA, but not PspA and rPly, were associated with reduced risk of nasopharyngeal carriage of S. pneumoniae in infants

Seasonal variation in haematological and biochemical reference values for healthy young children in The Gambia

Haematological and biochemistry reference values for children are important for interpreting clinical and research results however, differences in demography and environment poses a challenge when comparing results. The study defines reference intervals for haematological and biochemistry parameters and examines the effect of seasonality in malaria transmission

Law, criminalisation and HIV in the world: have countries that criminalise achieved more or less successful pandemic response?

How do choices in criminal law and rights protections affect disease-fighting efforts? This long-standing question facing governments around the world is acute in the context of pandemics like HIV and COVID-19. The Global AIDS Strategy of the last 5 years sought to prevent mortality and HIV transmission in part through ensuring people living with HIV (PLHIV) knew their HIV status and could suppress the HIV virus through antiretroviral treatment. This article presents a cross-national ecological analysis of the relative success of national AIDS responses under this strategy, where laws were characterised by more or less criminalisation and with varying rights protections. In countries where same-sex sexual acts were criminalised, the portion of PLHIV who knew their HIV status was 11% lower and viral suppression levels 8% lower. Sex work criminalisation was associated with 10% lower knowledge of status and 6% lower viral suppression. Drug use criminalisation was associated with 14% lower levels of both. Criminalising all three of these areas was associated with approximately 18%-24% worse outcomes. Meanwhile, national laws on non-discrimination, independent human rights institutions and gender-based violence were associated with significantly higher knowledge of HIV status and higher viral suppression among PLHIV. Since most countries did not achieve 2020 HIV goals, this ecological evidence suggests that law reform may be an important tool in speeding momentum to halt the pandemic

Hormonal Correlates and Predictors of Nutritional Recovery in Malnourished African Children.

Background: Malnourished children show variable growth responses to nutritional rehabilitation. We aimed to investigate whether these differences could be explained by variations in growth and energy-regulating hormones. Methods: Quasi-experimental study: Children aged 6-24 months in rural Gambia were recruited to controls if weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) > -2 (n = 22), moderate acute malnutrition if WHZ  -3 (n = 18) or severe acute malnutrition if WHZ < -3 (n = 20). Plasma hormone and salivary CRP levels were determined by ELISA. Results: In univariable analyses, increases in weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) in malnourished children were positively correlated with insulin (F-ratio 7.8, p = 0.006), C-peptide (F-ratio 12.2, p < 0.001) and cortisol (F-ratio 5.0, p = 0.03). In multivariable analysis, only baseline C-peptide (F-ratio 7.6, p = 0.009) predicted the changes in WAZ over 28 days of interventions. Conclusion: In rural Gambian, malnourished children, although it cannot be used in isolation, baseline C-peptide was a predictor of future response to rehabilitation

Possible mediators of metabolic endotoxemia in women with obesity and women with obesity-diabetes in The Gambia.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Translocation of bacterial debris from the gut causes metabolic endotoxemia (ME) that results in insulin resistance, and may be on the causal pathway to obesity-related type 2 diabetes. To guide interventions against ME we tested two hypothesised mechanisms for lipopolysaccharide (LPS) ingress: a leaky gut and chylomicron-associated transfer following a high-fat meal. METHODS: In lean women (n = 48; fat mass index (FMI) 9.6 kg/m2), women with obesity (n = 62; FMI 23.6 kg/m2) and women with obesity-diabetes (n = 38; FMI 24.9 kg/m2) we used the lactulose-mannitol dual-sugar permeability test (LM ratio) to assess gut integrity. Markers of ME (LPS, EndoCAb IgG and IgM, IL-6, CD14 and lipoprotein binding protein) were assessed at baseline, 2 h and 5 h after a standardised 49 g fat-containing mixed meal. mRNA expression of markers of inflammation, macrophage activation and lipid metabolism were measured in peri-umbilical adipose tissue (AT) biopsies. RESULTS: The LM ratio did not differ between groups. LPS levels were 57% higher in the obesity-diabetes group (P < 0.001), but, contrary to the chylomicron transfer hypothesis, levels significantly declined following the high-fat challenge. EndoCAb IgM was markedly lower in women with obesity and women with obesity-diabetes. mRNA levels of inflammatory markers in adipose tissue were consistent with the prior concept that fat soluble LPS in AT attracts and activates macrophages. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Raised levels of LPS and IL-6 in women with obesity-diabetes and evidence of macrophage activation in adipose tissue support the concept of metabolic endotoxemia-mediated inflammation, but we found no evidence for abnormal gut permeability or chylomicron-associated post-prandial translocation of LPS. Instead, the markedly lower EndoCAb IgM levels indicate a failure in sequestration and detoxification

Rapid growth is a dominant predictor of hepcidin suppression and declining ferritin in Gambian infants.

Iron deficiency and iron deficiency anemia are highly prevalent in low-income countries, especially among young children. Hepcidin is the major regulator of systemic iron homeostasis. It controls dietary iron absorption, dictates whether absorbed iron is made available in circulation for erythropoiesis and other iron-demanding processes, and predicts response to oral iron supplementation. Understanding how hepcidin is itself regulated is therefore important, especially in young children. We investigated how changes in iron-related parameters, inflammation and infection status, seasonality, and growth influenced plasma hepcidin and ferritin concentrations during infancy using longitudinal data from two birth cohorts of infants in rural Gambia (n=114 and n=193). This setting is characterized by extreme seasonality, prevalent childhood anemia, undernutrition, and frequent infection. Plasma was collected from infants at birth and at regular intervals, up to 12 months of age. Hepcidin, ferritin and plasma iron concentrations declined markedly during infancy, with reciprocal increases in soluble transferrin receptor and transferrin concentrations, indicating declining iron stores and increasing tissue iron demand. In cross-sectional analyses at 5 and 12 months of age, we identified expected relationships of hepcidin with iron and inflammatory markers, but also observed significant negative associations between hepcidin and antecedent weight gain. Correspondingly, longitudinal fixed effects modeling demonstrated weight gain to be the most notable dynamic predictor of decreasing hepcidin and ferritin through infancy across both cohorts. Infants who grow rapidly in this setting are at particular risk of depletion of iron stores, but since hepcidin concentrations decrease with weight gain, they may also be the most responsive to oral iron interventions