Cost-effectiveness of a potential Zika vaccine candidate: a case study for Colombia

Background: A number of Zika vaccine platforms are currently being investigated, some of which have entered clinical trials. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a potential Zika vaccine candidate under the WHO Vaccine Target Product Profile for outbreak response, prioritizing women of reproductive age to prevent microcephaly and other neurological disorders. Methods: Using an agent-based simulation model of ZIKV transmission dynamics in a Colombian population setting, we conducted cost-effectiveness analysis with and without pre-existing herd immunity. The model was parameterized with estimates associated with ZIKV infection, risks of microcephaly in different trimesters, direct medical costs, and vaccination costs. We assumed that a single dose of vaccine provides a protection efficacy in the range 60% to 90% against infection. Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a government perspective. Results: Under a favorable scenario when the reproduction number is relatively low (R0 = 2.2) and the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic infection is 10% compared with symptomatic infection, a vaccine is cost-saving (with negative incremental cost-effective ratio; ICER) for vaccination costs up to US$6 per individual without herd immunity, and up to US$4 per individual with 8% herd immunity. For positive ICER values, vaccination is highly cost-effective for vaccination costs up to US$10 (US$7) in the respective scenarios with the willingness-to-pay of US$6610 per disability-adjusted life-year, corresponding to the average per capita GDP of Colombia between 2013 and 2017. Our results indicate that the effect of other control measures targeted to reduce ZIKV transmission decreases the range of vaccination costs for cost-effectiveness due to reduced returns of vaccine-induced herd immunity. In all scenarios investigated, the median reduction of microcephaly exceeded 64% with vaccination. Conclusions: Our study suggests that a Zika vaccine with protection efficacy as low as 60% could significantly reduce the incidence of microcephaly. From a government perspective, Zika vaccination is highly cost-effective, and even cost-saving in Colombia if vaccination costs per individual is sufficiently low. Efficacy data from clinical trials and number of vaccine doses will be important requirements in future studies to refine our estimates, and conduct similar studies in other at-risk populations. Keywords: Zika, Microcephaly, Vaccination, Agent-based modeling, Cost-effectivenessYork University Librarie

Developing Learning Tools with Case-based Learning and Project-Based Learning for Digital Classroom Management Course

The semester lesson plan is a learning tool used in higher education. The semester lesson plan was designed by applying case-based learning (CBL) and project-based learning (PjBL) models, which aim to achieve the target of course graduates. The digital classroom management course is new in the MBKM curriculum implemented in study programs. Therefore, it requires learning tools to support the implementation of lecture activities. This study aims to develop a semester lesson plan by applying valid and effective case-based learning (CBL) and project-based learning (PjBL) models in the learning activities. This research is development research with the ADDIE model. The subjects in the study were five lecturers and 30 students. The research produced a valid and effective semester lesson plan for digital classroom management courses.The semester lesson plan is a learning tool used in higher education. The semester lesson plan was designed by applying case-based learning (CBL) and project-based learning (PjBL) models, which aim to achieve the target of course graduates. The digital classroom management course is new in the MBKM curriculum implemented in study programs. Therefore, it requires learning tools to support the implementation of lecture activities. This study aims to develop a semester lesson plan by applying valid and effective case-based learning (CBL) and project-based learning (PjBL) models in the learning activities. This research is development research with the ADDIE model. The subjects in the study were five lecturers and 30 students. The research produced a valid and effective semester lesson plan for digital classroom management courses

REPRESENTASI NASIONALISME DALAM FILM “THE LADY”

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana Nasionalisme direpresentasikan dalam film The Lady melalui tokoh utama Aung Ang Suu Kyi. Teori-teori yang digunakan antara lain Teori Konstruksi Realitas Sosial, Representasi, Nasionalisme Myanmar, Buddhisme di Myanmar, Nasionalisme Modern, Respon Psikologi Warna, Semiotika, Definisi the Code of Television. Film ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif dengan menggunakan metode semiotik. Pendekatan semiotik yang dikemukakan John Fiske (grammar and tv culture) melalui level realitas, level representasi, dan level ideologi. Data dibagi menjadi tiga level yaitu level realitas, level representasi dan level ideologi. Pada level realitas, dianalisis penandaan yang terdapat pada kostum, make up, setting dan dialog. Pada level representasi dianalisis penandaan pada level kerja kamera, pencahayaan dan penataan suara. Pada ideologi dianalisis penandaan terhadap ideologi yang terkandung dalam film. Teori-teori yang digunakan antara lain Teori Konstruksi Realitas Sosial, Representasi, Nasionalisme Myanmar, Buddhisme di Myanmar, Nasionalisme Modern, Respon Psikologi Warna, Semiotika, Definisi the Code of Television. Dari hasil analisis data dari penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan dalam film yang diteliti ternyata untuk mencapai dan menciptakan Negara yang berdemokrasi diperlukan usaha-usaha keras dengan menjunjung tinngi sifat Nasionalisme pad

JUMLAH CEMARAN TOTAL PLATE COUNT (TPC) DAN ESCHERICHIA COLI SUSU KAMBING SEGAR YANG BERASAL DARI USAHA TERNAK KAMBING PERAH DI KECAMATAN SYIAH KUALA BANDA ACEH

JUMLAH CEMARAN TOTAL PLATE COUNT (TPC) DAN Escherichia coli SUSU KAMBING SEGAR YANG BERASAL DARI USAHATERNAK KAMBING PERAH DI KECAMATANSYIAH KUALA BANDA ACEHABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui jumlah total plate count (TPC) dan kontaminasi Escherichia coli pada susu kambing segar yang berasal dari usaha peternakan kambing perah di kecamatan Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh. Sampel susu yang digunakan adalah susu kambing segar hasil pemerahan pada pagi hari yang diperoleh dari 2usaha ternak kambing perah di kecamatan Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh dengan2 kali pengulangan masing-masing sebanyak 250 ml. Selanjutnya, sesegera mungkin dibawa kelaboratorium untuk dilakukan pengujian guna mengetahui adanya bakteri dalam air susu tersebut. Pengujian jumlah cemaran TPC dan E.coli dilakukan dengan metode tuang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ternyata jumlah total bakteri pada peternakan A adalah 4,9x102cfu/ml dan dari peternakan B adalah 9,2x103 cfu/ml. Hasil penelitian E.coli di usaha ternak kambing perah A adalah 0 dan hasil penelitian E.coli usaha ternak kambing perah B adalah 1x101 cfu/ml. Kesimpulannya adalah jumlah TPC pada uasaha ternak kambing perah Kecamatan Syiah Kuala tidak melebihi standar SNI sedangkan cemaran E.coli pada usaha ternak kambing perah A adalah 0 sedangkan pada usaha ternak kambing perah B adalah melebihi SNI

Performance Analysis of XGBoost Algorithm to Determine the Most Optimal Parameters and Features in Predicting Stock Price Movement

Purpose: The research aims to find the best parameters and features for predicting stock price movement using the XGBoost algorithm. The parameters are searched using the RMSE value, and the features are searched using the importance value.Design/methodology/approach: The research data is the stock data of Amazon.com company (AMZN). The dataset contains the Date, Low, Open, Volume, High, Close, and Adjusted Close features. The dataset is ensured to have no missing data by handling missing values. The input feature is selected using the Pearson Correlation feature selection method. To prevent the difference between the highest and lowest stock price from being too far apart, the data is scaled using the scaling method. To avoid bias that may appear in the prediction result, cross-validation is used with the Min Max Scaling method, which will devide the dataset into training data and testing data within a range of 30 days after the training data. The parameters to be tested include n_estimator = 500, early stopping round = 3, learning rate = 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, and max_depth (tree depth) = 3, 4, 5.Findings/result: The result of the research that a learning rate of 0.05 and a tree depth of 5 obtained the lowest RMSE result compared to other models, with an RMSE of 0.009437. The Low feature obtained the highest importance value among all the models built.Originality/value/state of the art: This study used testing data within a range of 30 days after the training data and used a combination of parameters, including n_estimator = 500, early stopping round = 3, learning rate = 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, amd max_depth (tree depth) = 3, 4, 5.

PENGARUH MODEL LEARNING CYCLE 5E TERHADAP HASIL BELAJAR SISWA PADA PEMBELAJARAN IPA DI SEKOLAH DASAR KELAS IV MI PASIR AWI BEAS

Skripsi ini dilatar belakangi oleh pengamatan penulis di lapangan terhadap hasil belajar siswa yang masih jauh dibawah standar. Oleh karenanya peneliti mencoba melihat permasalahan apa yang menyebabkan hal ini terjadi. Salah satunya adalah model pembelajaran yang masih banyak kurang dikuasai oleh pengajar dan model pembelajaran yang masih bersifat konvensional. Oleh karena itu peneliti dalam penelitian ini mencoba menerapkan salah satu model pembelajaran yang diharapkan dapat memberikan pengaruh posistif terhadap hasil belajar siswa. Model ini adalah learning cycyle 5E yang dilandaskan kepada pembelajaran bermakna atau kontrukstivisme. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah melihat perbedaan pengaruh antara penerapan model pembelajaran learnig Cycle 5E terhadap hasil belajar siswa dibandingngkan model pembelajaran konvensional. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode eksperimen, dengan desain penelitian menggunakan bentuk Quasi Eksperimen pretes-postest, Nonequivalen control group design. Sampel terbagi kedalam dua kelas, yaitu kelas eksperimen dengan diterapkan model learning cycle 5e dan kelas kontrol yang diterapkan model pembelajaran konvensional. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kelas IV MI Pasirawibeas yang terdiri dari 50 orang yang terbagi kedalam dua kelas yaitu kelas IV A dan Kelas IV B yang masing-masing terdiri dari 25 orang. Kelas A dijadikan kelas eksperimen dan kelas B dijadikan kelas kontrol. Dari hasil analisis data didapatkan data rata-rata pretest kelas eksperimen 39.6 dan 38.48 untuk rata-rata kelas kontrol. Sedangkan untuk rata-rata hasil postest kelas eksperimen 79.72 dan 48.48 untuk rata-rata kelas Kontrol, data di atas menunjukan bahwa rata-rata nilai eksperimen ada peningkatan dibandingkan rata-rata kelas kontrol. Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dan analisis data, penulis mengambil kesimpulan sebagai berikut: pembelajaran model learning cycyle 5e berpengaruh terhadap hasil belajar siswa sedangkan pembelajaran model konvensional kurang berpengaruh terhadap hasil belajar siswa