Evaluating the Short Run Effects of U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels on WTI Crude Oil Price from 1993 – 2013

The focus of this research was to investigate the short-term influence of U.S. crude oil inventories on WTI crude oil prices from 1993 to 2013. This study is important for policy makers who wish to reduce the persistent and growing price volatility of crude oil and its related products as well as businesses such as airline companies who wish to make annual budgetary sales decisions. Using OLS multiple regression, cointegration, VECM and Ex-post forecast techniques; we provide evidence of an inelastic relationship in which a 1% increase in U.S. crude oil inventories is associated with 0.46% decrease in WTI crude oil prices; however this was only valid for 22% of WTI crude oil price variation. We also find that past data on U.S. crude oil inventories could be used to predict future WTI crude oil prices movement. Contrary to literature, the results of the VECM analysis indicate there is no short-run relationship between both variables over the trajectory

Brexit and UK Energy Security:Perspectives from Unconventional Gas Investment and the Effects of Shale Gas on UK Energy Prices

Many aspects of the present and future effects on the UK economy, industry, and households, of Brexit have been researched. One thing which appears certain about Brexit is the shadow of uncertainty it casts on the future of business in the UK and its telling effects on the UK economy. It is believed that Brexit has negatively affected the level of investments in the UK, including investments in energy and crucially the upstream oil and gas, with the UK North Sea being starved of investments since 2014, leading already to increased energy bills. The UK is a net importer of natural gas—a major source of its energy, with some dependence on supplies from interconnectors from Europe. At the same time, UK energy companies participate in the common energy market which enables them to undertake arbitrage trading under the common market rules. However, both of these benefits could be lost under a Brexit scenario where the UK and EU come to a no-deal or hard border arrangement. Meanwhile, domestic production of energy in the UK has declined for nearly two decades now and import bills for natural gas are growing—they were £14.2 billion in 2017; £11.7 billion in 2016 and £13.4 billion in 2015—with Government projections indicating an upward trajectory for natural gas imports. It is however believed that the UK has great potential to exploit shale gas to her advantage in order to reduce her reliance on foreign energy which is: (1) less predictable in terms of supply and price affordability and (2) dependent on exchange rates—a primary means through which energy prices increased in 2016/17 post-Brexit referendum vote. The current study extends discussions on shale gas to cover a review of the potential of natural gas from shale formations to cushion UK households against further erratic gas prices due to Brexit and also assesses the potential effects Brexit may have had on the level of investments in shale gas, in order to suggest policy options for government consideration. Contrary to popular studies, we find evidence to suggest that shale gas has the potential to reduce energy prices for UK businesses and households at commercial extractions, under both hard and soft Brexit scenarios, but with more benefits under hard Brexit. Importantly, we find that from 2008 to 2017, average UK net export of natural gas was 5,191 GWh per year to the EU. We also find and argue that Brexit may have starved the nascent fracking industry of investments in a similar way it did to investments in conventional oil and gas and could have increased investor risk premium for shale gas development, the ultimate effect of which was a categorisation of fracking (company stock) as riskier asset for investors on the London Stock Exchange. We recommend that shale gas development be expedited to maximise its benefits to UK energy consumers post-Brexit or economic benefits from the resource could be diminished by rising operator costs due to delays and effects of the public’s perceived negative opinion of the method of extraction

Brexit and Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union: Implications for UK Energy Policy and Security

This paper articulates the potential implications of Brexit on energy policy and security in the United Kingdom (UK). Given the uncertainties associated with the decision to leave the European Union (EU), the need to consider its potential effects on the UK’s energy sector becomes even more pertinent. Through the lens of a few widely reviewed trade regimes in the light of Brexit, it can be observed that while UK energy policies are unlikely to change drastically, Brexit nevertheless threatens the UK’s capacity to safeguard its energy supply. The uncertainties following Brexit could arguably starve the UK’s upstream petroleum, electricity, and renewable energy sectors of their required investments. Both short and long-term impacts could result in UK residents paying more per unit of energy consumed in a “hard Brexit” scenario, where the UK exits the Internal Energy Market (IEM) and must trade with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules. While a hard Brexit could aid the growth of the nascent shale gas industry, a negotiated withdrawal that includes some form of access to the IEM (a “soft Brexit”) would be more beneficial for the future of energy security in the UK

Economic Feasibility Analysis of Shale Gas Extraction from UK’s Carboniferous Bowland-Hodder Shale Unit

For many years, shale gas exploitation has been generating contradictory views in the UK and remains subject of rising debates throughout these years. Favorably backed by the government, looking upon it as potential mechanism for gas import independency and competitiveness in global gas industry while strongly opposed by stakeholders (mainly public), idea of shale gas exploitation remains disputed with no substantial progress in past years. And this irresolution is worsened by obscurity of estimates for potential reserves and conflicting assessments on potential impact of shale gas. Yet, in case shale industry is signaled to search and extract resources, there remains another scrutiny stage that shale industry will be subjected to i.e., its extraction must be economically feasible as extracting unconventional resources is financially expensive and riskier than conventional. Hence, this study aims at analyzing the economics of UK’s most prolific Bowland shale play development by a financial model that discovers gas prices range required to earn capital cost on investment in Bowland shale play and is tested on three development plans where it determines that based on given set of hypothesis and past decade’s average gas price of $6.52/Mcf, none of the development plans hold enough probability of adding value, however, hybrid plan formulated by combination of consistent drilling and refracturing proves as economically sustainable with a RGP mean$7.21/Mcf, significantly lower than $9.76/Mcf mean for ‘drilling only’ plan. It is found that required gas price is most sensitive to initial production rate and drilling costs where ±10% variation offsets RGP by ≈ ±8% and ±7%

Assessing the conventional non-destructive testing methods used for the inspection and testing of welded joints in fuel pipelines

Abstract: Pipework, pressure vessels, storage tanks and other safety-critical components are designed to contain liquids, gases and solids to avoid contamination and losses. However, when these pipelines suffer any flaws, their integrity is compromised. The eventual result from this compromise is an accident, which sometimes tends to be catastrophic, especially when these pipelines are noted for conveying flammable and hazardous fuels. When some of these flaws are located early, they are remedied quickly. Welding is one of the methods used to remedy some of these flaws especially when the flaw is a leakage. Despite the potency of weld to join steel and pipeline systems very well, various metallurgical phenomena occur in the weld and this mostly leads to defects in the welded joints. Non-Destructive Test (NDT) is, therefore, used to detect some of the defects in the weld as it does not affect, destroy or disturb the main features of the product or material. This study has investigated the performance of the NDT methods used in the inspection of fuel pipelines in order to prevent occurrences of accidents. The objectives that formed the basis of the study are to determine the detectability of various flaws in fuel flow pipelines using conventional NDT methods and to ascertain the most suitable of these methods. The study was carried out at the worksite of Inspectors and Engineers Company Limited located in Takoradi, Ghana. Taguchi method of experimental design was used to gather the data. The data were analysed statistically with Rstudios and the graphs were plotted with Microsoft Excel. The tests that were conducted on the 2-, 6- and 10-inches pipes were; Radiography test, Manual Ultrasonic Test and Magnetic Test. The result from the data showed that there is not so much difference between the Radiographic Test and Manual Ultrasonic Test in terms of flaws detection in 2-, 6- and 10-inches pipelines as they all recorded mean values of 19.75mm and 19.25mm defect length when compared with the Purposely Inserted defect at 20mm. Furthermore, the Magnetic Particle Test was convenient for detecting flaws at the surface of the weld as it had shallow penetration in the welds. Moreover, the Magnetic Particle Test showed a poorer defect detection when it recorded the same 5mm defect lengths for all three pipelines as against 19.75mm for the 6 inches pipe, 20mm for both the 2- and 10-inches pipes for Manual Ultrasonic Test. The analysis pointed out that, both Radiography Test and Manual Ultrasonic Test could be used interchangeably. It is recommended that further analysis could be carried out with different pipe sizes to ascertain whether there would be any difference between Radiography Test and Manual Ultrasonic Test. Again, the study further recommended iv that consideration could be given to the study of other alternative methods of flaw detection in a weld that could potentially replace MPT.M.Phil. (Mechanical Engineering