The nucleon and the nuclear force in the context of effective theory and path-integral methods

The nucleon structure and the nuclear force are investigated in the context of the non-perturbative path-integral method of hadronization. Starting from a microscopic quark-diquark model, the nucleon is generated as a relativistic bound state and an effective chiral meson-nucleon Lagrangian is derived. Many of the nucleon physical properties are studied using a theory of at most two free parameters.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. To appear in the proceedings of Pan American Advanced Studies Institute on New States of Matter in Hadronic Interactions (PASI2002), Campos do Jordao, Brazil, 7-18 Jan 200

Quasifree processes from nuclei: Meson photoproduction and electron scattering

We have developed a relativistic formalism for studying quasi-free processes from nuclei. The formalism can be applied with ease to a variety of processes and renders transparent analytical expressions for all observables. We have applied it to kaon photoproduction and to electron scattering. For the case of the kaon, we compute the recoil polarization of the lambda-hyperon and the photon asymmetry. Our results indicate that polarization observables are insensitive to relativistic, nuclear target, and distortion effects. Yet, they are sensitive to the reactive content, making them ideal tools for the study of modifications to the elementary amplitude -- such as in the production, propagation, and decay of nucleon resonances -- in the nuclear medium. For the case of the electron, we have calculated the spectral function of He-4. An observable is identified for the clean and model-independent extraction of the spectral function. Our calculations provide baseline predictions for the recently measured, but not yet fully analyzed, momentum distribution of He-4 by the A1-collaboration from Mainz. Our approach predicts momentum distributions for He-4 that rival some of the best non-relativistic calculations to date.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of International Symposium on Electromagnetic Interactions in Nuclear and Hadron Physics (EMI 2001), Osaka, Ibaraki, Japan, 4-7 Dec 200

Epidemiological impact of targeted interventions for people with diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis transmission in India: Modelling based predictions.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a leading driver of tuberculosis (TB) disease in TB-DM burdened countries. We aimed to assess the impact on TB disease of several intervention strategies targeting people with DM in India. METHODS: A previously validated TB-DM mathematical model was extended to include interventions targeting DM individuals. The model stratified the population by age, DM status, TB infection status and stage, TB disease form, treatment, recovery, and intervention status. RESULTS: By 2050, different TB vaccination strategies (coverage of 50 % and vaccine efficacies ranging between 50 %-60 %) reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 4.5 %-20.8 % and 4.1 %-22.1 %, respectively, and averted 3.1 %-12.8 % of TB disease cases in the total population. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one TB case (effectiveness) was 14-105. Varying the coverage levels of latent TB treatment (coverage of 50 %-80 % and drug effectiveness of 90 %) reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 7.1 %-11.3 % and 8.2 %-13.0 %, respectively, averting 4.2 %-6.7 % of TB cases, with effectiveness of 38-40. Different scenarios for dual and concurrent treatment of those with TB and DM, reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 0.1 %-0.4 % and 1.3 %-4.8 %, respectively, averting 0.1 %-0.2 % of TB cases, with effectiveness of 28-107. Different scenarios for managing and controlling DM (regardless of TB status) reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 4.5 %-16.5 % and 6.5 %-22.2 %, respectively, averting 2.9 %-10.8 % of TB cases, with effectiveness of 6-24. CONCLUSION: Gains can be attained by targeting DM individuals with interventions to reduce TB burden. Most strategies were effective with <50 intervention doses needed to avert one TB disease case, informing key updates of current treatment guidelines

Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men

IntroductionWe aimed to investigate the overlapping epidemiologies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM), and to explore to what extent the epidemiology of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) relates to or differs from that of another STI.MethodsAn individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was employed to simulate the concurrent transmission of STIs within diverse sexual networks of MSM. The model simulated sexual partnering, birth, death, and STI transmission within each specific sexual network. The model parameters were chosen based on the current knowledge and understanding of the natural history, transmission, and epidemiology of each considered STI. Associations were measured using the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC).ResultsA total of 500 sexual networks were simulated by varying the mean and variance of the number of partners for both short-term and all partnerships, degree correlation, and clustering coefficient. HSV-2 had the highest current infection prevalence across the simulations, followed by HIV, chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea. Threshold and saturation effects emerged in the relationship between STIs across the simulated networks, and all STIs demonstrated moderate to strong associations. The strongest current infection prevalence association was between HIV and gonorrhea, with an SRCC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80–0.87) and an MIC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74–0.88). The weakest association was between HSV-2 and syphilis, with an SRCC of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.48–0.59) and an MIC of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49–0.65). Gonorrhea exhibited the strongest associations with the other STIs while syphilis had the weakest associations. Across the simulated networks, proportions of the population with zero, one, two, three, four, and five concurrent STI infections were 48.6, 37.7, 11.1, 2.4, 0.3, and &lt; 0.1%, respectively. For lifetime exposure to these infections, these proportions were 13.6, 21.0, 22.9, 24.3, 13.4, and 4.8%, respectively.ConclusionSTI epidemiologies demonstrate substantial overlap and associations, alongside nuanced differences that shape a unique pattern for each STI. Gonorrhea exhibits an “intermediate STI epidemiology,” reflected by the highest average correlation coefficient with other STIs

How Does Population Viral Load Vary with the Evolution of a Large HIV Epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa?

Using mathematical modelling, we described the temporal evolution of population HIV-1 viral load in Tanzania throughout the epidemic. Population log10 viral load was found to be stable and not sensitive to epidemic dynamics. However, even modest increases in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage were reflected as appreciable reductions in population log10 viral load. As ART coverage expands in sub-Saharan Africa, population log10 viral load will increasingly become a powerful proxy for monitoring ART implementation and HIV incidence trends. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivitives 3.0 License, where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0

Comparative analysis and evolution of civilian versus combatant mortality ratios in Israel-Gaza conflicts, 2008–2023

BackgroundThere is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts.MethodsA deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised.ResultsThe model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6–66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1–54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7–15.4%) in the 2008–2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51–0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82–1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50–9.29) in the 2008–2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008–2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.ConclusionFindings imply a progressive shift in Israel’s rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict

Spatial variability in HIV prevalence declines in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa

AbstractEvidence suggests substantial declines in HIV prevalence in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, the observed aggregate declines at the national level may obscure local variations in the temporal dynamics of the infection. Using spatial scan statistics, we identified marked spatial variability in the within-country declines in HIV prevalence in Tanzania, Malawi, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. Our study suggests that the declines in the national HIV prevalence in some of the SSA countries may not be representative of downward trends in prevalence in areas of high HIV prevalence, as much as the result of sharp declines in prevalence in areas of already low HIV prevalence. Our findings provide insights for resource allocation and HIV prevention interventions in these countries