The long-term legacy of plastic mass production

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordMismanaged plastic waste is transported via rivers or city drains into the ocean where it accumulates in coastal sediments, ocean gyres and the deep ocean. Plastic harms marine biota and may ultimately return to humans via the food chain. Private initiatives proposing to collect plastic from the sea and rivers have gained widespread attention, especially in the media. However, few of these methods are proven concepts and it remains unclear how effective they are. Here we estimate the amount of plastic in the global surface ocean to assess the long-term legacy of plastic mass production, calculate the time required to clean up the oceans with river barriers and clean up devices, and explore the fate of collected plastic waste. We find that the projected impact of both single and multiple clean up devices is very modest. A significant reduction of plastic debris in the ocean can be only achieved with collection at rivers or with a combination of river barriers and clean up devices. We also show that the incineration and production of plastic has a significant long-term effect on the global atmospheric carbon budget. We conclude that a combination of reduced plastic emissions and reinforced collection is the only way to rid the ocean of plastic waste

The multiple sclerosis risk sharing scheme monitoring study - early results and lessons for the future

Background: Risk sharing schemes represent an innovative and important approach to the problems of rationing and achieving cost-effectiveness in high cost or controversial health interventions. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of risk sharing schemes, looking at long term clinical outcomes, to determine the price at which high cost treatments would be acceptable to the NHS. Methods: This case study of the first NHS risk sharing scheme, a long term prospective cohort study of beta interferon and glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis ( MS) patients in 71 specialist MS centres in UK NHS hospitals, recruited adults with relapsing forms of MS, meeting Association of British Neurologists (ABN) criteria for disease modifying therapy. Outcome measures were: success of recruitment and follow up over the first three years, analysis of baseline and initial follow up data and the prospect of estimating the long term cost-effectiveness of these treatments. Results: Centres consented 5560 patients. Of the 4240 patients who had been in the study for a least one year, annual review data were available for 3730 (88.0%). Of the patients who had been in the study for at least two years and three years, subsequent annual review data were available for 2055 (78.5%) and 265 (71.8%) patients respectively. Baseline characteristics and a small but statistically significant progression of disease were similar to those reported in previous pivotal studies. Conclusion: Successful recruitment, follow up and early data analysis suggest that risk sharing schemes should be able to deliver their objectives. However, important issues of analysis, and political and commercial conflicts of interest still need to be addressed

Odontoid metastasis: a potential lethal complication

Nearly one third of cervical spine metastasis has a primary breast malignancy. Patients with cervical metastasis have higher mortality due to advanced stage of the malignancy. Treatment is palliative to relieve pain, prevent pathological fracture, improve mobility and function, and prolong survival. We describe a 40-year-old woman with a history of breast cancer who presented with neck and shoulder pain of 1 week duration with no neurological deficit. Following clinical examination, radiographs taken of the cervical spine was normal. Radiographs repeated 3 weeks later revealed a large lytic lesion of the odontoid occupying 70–80% of the peg. Further investigation including magnetic resonance imaging and bone scan showed no further spinal lesions. She underwent cyclical radiotherapy with complete resolution of the odontoid peg lesion and clinically was asymptomatic at 2 years. Metastatic lesions of the odontoid are atypical, and this case reinforces the necessity of early detection to evade disastrous consequences

A randomised control trial of low glycaemic index carbohydrate diet versus no dietary intervention in the prevention of recurrence of macrosomia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maternal weight and maternal weight gain during pregnancy exert a significant influence on infant birth weight and the incidence of macrosomia. Fetal macrosomia is associated with an increase in both adverse obstetric and neonatal outcome, and also confers a future risk of childhood obesity. Studies have shown that a low glycaemic diet is associated with lower birth weights, however these studies have been small and not randomised <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B1">1</abbr><abbr bid="B2">2</abbr></abbrgrp>. Fetal macrosomia recurs in a second pregnancy in one third of women, and maternal weight influences this recurrence risk <abbrgrp><abbr bid="B3">3</abbr></abbrgrp>.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We propose a randomised control trial of low glycaemic index carbohydrate diet vs. no dietary intervention in the prevention of recurrence of fetal macrosomia.</p> <p>Secundigravid women whose first baby was macrosomic, defined as a birth weight greater than 4000 g will be recruited at their first antenatal visit.</p> <p>Patients will be randomised into two arms, a control arm which will receive no dietary intervention and a diet arm which will be commenced on a low glycaemic index diet.</p> <p>The primary outcome measure will be the mean birth weight centiles and ponderal indices in each group.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Altering the source of maternal dietary carbohydrate may prove to be valuable in the management of pregnancies where there has been a history of fetal macrosomia. Fetal macrosomia recurs in a second pregnancy in one third of women. This randomised control trial will investigate whether or not a low glycaemic index diet can affect this recurrence risk.</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials Registration Number</p> <p>ISRCTN54392969</p

Quantitatively monitoring the resilience of patterned vegetation in the Sahel

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Zenodo. Processed images can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5536861. Analysis results can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4050362.Patterning of vegetation in drylands is a consequence of localised feedback mechanisms. Such feedbacks also determine ecosystem resilience - i.e. the ability to recover from perturbation. Hence the patterning of vegetation has been hypothesised to be an indicator of resilience, i.e. spots are less resilient than labyrinths. Previous studies have made this qualitative link and used models to quantitatively explore it, but few have quantitatively analysed available data to test the hypothesis. Here we provide methods for quantitatively monitoring the resilience of patterned vegetation, applied to 40 sites in the Sahel (a mix of previously identified and new ones). We show that an existing quantification of vegetation patterns in terms of a feature vector metric can effectively distinguish gaps, labyrinths, spots, and a novel category of spot-labyrinths at their maximum extent, whereas NDVI does not. The feature vector pattern metric correlates with mean precipitation. We then explored two approaches to measuring resilience. First we treated the rainy season as a perturbation and examined the subsequent rate of decay of patterns and NDVI as possible measures of resilience. This showed faster decay rates - conventionally interpreted as greater resilience - associated with wetter, more vegetated sites. Second we detrended the seasonal cycle and examined temporal autocorrelation and variance of the residuals as possible measures of resilience. Autocorrelation and variance of our pattern metric increase with declining mean precipitation, consistent with loss of resilience. Thus, drier sites appear less resilient, but we find no significant correlation between the mean or maximum value of the pattern metric (and associated morphological pattern types) and either of our measures of resilience.Leverhulme TrustAlan Turing InstituteScience and Technology Facilities Council (STFC

Optimality criteria without constraint qualications for linear semidenite problems

We consider two closely related optimization problems: a problem of convex Semi- Infinite Programming with multidimensional index set and a linear problem of Semidefinite Programming. In study of these problems we apply the approach suggested in our recent paper [14] and based on the notions of immobile indices and their immobility orders. For the linear semidefinite problem, we define the subspace of immobile indices and formulate the first order optimality conditions in terms of a basic matrix of this subspace. These conditions are explicit, do not use constraint qualifications, and have the form of criterion. An algorithm determining a basis of the subspace of immobile indices in a finite number of steps is suggested. The optimality conditions obtained are compared with other known optimality conditions

Quantum Simulation of Tunneling in Small Systems

A number of quantum algorithms have been performed on small quantum computers; these include Shor's prime factorization algorithm, error correction, Grover's search algorithm and a number of analog and digital quantum simulations. Because of the number of gates and qubits necessary, however, digital quantum particle simulations remain untested. A contributing factor to the system size required is the number of ancillary qubits needed to implement matrix exponentials of the potential operator. Here, we show that a set of tunneling problems may be investigated with no ancillary qubits and a cost of one single-qubit operator per time step for the potential evolution. We show that physically interesting simulations of tunneling using 2 qubits (i.e. on 4 lattice point grids) may be performed with 40 single and two-qubit gates. Approximately 70 to 140 gates are needed to see interesting tunneling dynamics in three-qubit (8 lattice point) simulations.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Operationalising Positive Tipping Points towards Global Sustainability

This is the final version. Available from the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter via the link in this recordGSI scientific working paper series number 2021/01Data Availability: The article contains no new data.Non-Technical Summary: Transforming towards global sustainability requires a dramatic acceleration of current progress. Hence there is growing interest in finding ‘positive tipping points’ at which small interventions can trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks that accelerate systemic change. Examples have recently been seen in power generation, personal transport, and lighting. But how to identify positive tipping points that have yet to occur? We synthesise theory and examples to provide initial guidelines for creating enabling conditions, sensing when a system can be positively tipped, who can trigger it, and how they can trigger it. All of us can play a part in triggering positive tipping points. Technical Summary: Recent work on positive tipping points towards sustainability has focused on social-technological systems and the agency of policymakers to tip change, whilst earlier work identified socialecological positive feedbacks triggered by diverse actors. We bring these together to consider positive tipping points across social-ecological-technological systems and the potential for multiple actors and interventions to trigger them. Established theory and examples provide several generic mechanisms for triggering tipping points. From these we identify specific enabling conditions, reinforcing feedbacks, actors, and interventions that can contribute to triggering positive tipping points in the adoption of sustainable behaviours and technologies. Actions that can create enabling conditions for positive tipping include targeting smaller populations, reducing price, improving performance, desirability and accessibility, coordinating complementary technologies, providing relevant information, and altering social network structure. Actions that can trigger positive tipping include social, ecological, and technological innovations, policy interventions, public investment, private investment, broadcasting public information, and behavioural nudges. Positive tipping points can help counter widespread feelings of disempowerment in the face of global challenges and help unlock ‘paralysis by complexity’. A key research agenda is to consider how different agents and interventions can most effectively work together to create system-wide positive tipping points whilst ensuring a just transformation.Leverhulme TrustAlan Turing Institut

Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups

Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that are reproduced and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between {their intrinsic properties and the environments in which they function}. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we define the concept of a word niche as the relationship between the word and the characteristic features of the environments in which it is used. We develop a method to quantify two important aspects of the size of the word niche: the range of individuals using the word and the range of topics it is used to discuss. Controlling for word frequency, we show that these aspects of the word niche are strong determinants of changes in word frequency. Previous studies have already indicated that word frequency itself is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our analysis of changes in word frequencies over time reveals that the relative sizes of word niches are far more important than word frequencies in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also distinguish endogenous versus exogenous factors as additional contributors to the fates of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in word statistics is strongly driven by individual proclivities, including inclinations to provide novel information and to project a distinctive social identity.Comment: Supporting Information is available here: http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchSingleRepresentation.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0019009.s00

Testing foundations of quantum mechanics with photons

The foundational ideas of quantum mechanics continue to give rise to counterintuitive theories and physical effects that are in conflict with a classical description of Nature. Experiments with light at the single photon level have historically been at the forefront of tests of fundamental quantum theory and new developments in photonics engineering continue to enable new experiments. Here we review recent photonic experiments to test two foundational themes in quantum mechanics: wave-particle duality, central to recent complementarity and delayed-choice experiments; and Bell nonlocality where recent theoretical and technological advances have allowed all controversial loopholes to be separately addressed in different photonics experiments.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, published as a Nature Physics Insight review articl