On the Use of a Cash Flow Time-Series to Measure Property Performance

Modern portfolio theory is increasingly being used to guide real estate portfolio decisions. However, to obtain meaningful results from complex mathematical techniques, the input data must meet at least two conditions: property values must be measured accurately, and the process by which property valuations change over time must be known. Neither of these conditions are satisfied by data currently available. This paper closely examines how value is measured and reported for commercial property. Commonly used time-series from NREI, NCREIF and ACLI are found wanting. An index of value using the popular "repeat sales" method is derived using data from Freddie Mac's multifamily portfolio. The focus of this paper is on developing an alternative measure of property performance based on property net operating income. Two cash flow indices are constructed from publicly available data and evaluated. It is recommended that the methodology developed here be used to create cash flow indices that can supplement or replace existing value indices in property analysis. The cash flow indices have much to offer researchers applying option-based models to real estate.

Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets

A commonsense and empirically supported approach to explaining metropolitan real house price changes is for the theory to describe an equilibrium price level to which the market is constantly adjusting. The determinants of real house price appreciation, then, can be divided into two groups, one that explains changes in the equilibrium price and the other that accounts for the adjustment dynamics or changing deviations from the equilibrium price. The former group includes the growth in real income and real construction costs and changes in the real after-tax interest rate. The latter group consists of lagged real appreciation and the difference between the actual and equilibrium real house price levels. Either group of variables can explain a little over two-fifths of the variation in real house price movements in 30 cities over the 1977-92 period; together, they explain three-fifths.

Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-91

Real metropolitan house prices have been quite volatile during the 1977-91 period, with half of our 30 areas having annual increases of above 15 percent in a single year and a third having decreases greater than 7.5 percent. Drawing on Capozza and Helsley's models of real land prices, we express real house price changes as a function of the rate of change in employment, real income growth, real construction cost inflation, and changes in real after-tax interest rates. Our explanatory power varies widely by region. We do quite well for the half of our cities in the more stable Upper Midwest and Southeast, less well for the coastal cities, and dismally for the two Texas cities.

Reconstruction of pre-Illinoian ice margins and glaciotectonic structures from airborne electromagnetic (AEM) surveys at the western limit of Laurentide glaciation, Midcontinent U.S.A.

Early and early Middle Pleistocene glaciations in midcontinental USA are poorly understood relative to more recent Illinoian and Wisconsinan glaciations, largely because pre-Illinoian glacial landforms and deposits are eroded and buried. In this paper, we present a new interpretation of buried, pre-Illinoian glacial features along the Laurentide glacial margin in northeastern Nebraska using Airborne ElectroMagnetics (AEM) supplemented with borehole logs and 2m LiDAR elevation data. We detect and map large-scale (101–102 km) geological features using contrasts in electrical resistivity. The Laurentide glacial limit is marked by a continuous (\u3e120 km) contrast between conductive (\u3c15 Ω-m), clayey tills and resistive (\u3e40 Ω-m) sandy sediments. Several smaller (102 km2) till salients extend 10s of km westward of this margin. We recognize a lithologically heterogeneous zone characterized by variable resistivity and complex geophysical structures extending as much as 17 km west of the glacial limit. This zone is interpreted as a glaciotectonic thrust complex, and it is analogous to a similar thrust complex in Denmark where structural analysis of co-located seismic and AEM surveys provides a standard for comparison. Our study suggests that the maximum advancement of pre-Illinoian glacial ice into Nebraska involved extensive deformation of sedimentary strata, local overriding of these deformed strata by smaller ice tongues, and emplacement of tills as much as 30 km west of the principal Laurentide ice margin. These insights provide the first glimpse of the large-scale stratigraphic architecture of glacial sediments in Nebraska and point to future clarifications of the geology and geomorphology of the Laurentide glacial limit

MDM2 Integrates Cellular Respiration and Apoptotic Signaling through NDUFS1 and the Mitochondrial Network

Signaling diversity and subsequent complexity in higher eukaryotes is partially explained by one gene encoding a polypeptide with multiple biochemical functions in different cellular contexts. For example, mouse double minute 2 (MDM2) is functionally characterized as both an oncogene and a tumor suppressor, yet this dual classification confounds the cell biology and clinical literatures. Identified via complementary biochemical, organellar, and cellular approaches, we report that MDM2 negatively regulates NADH:ubiquinone oxidoreductase 75 kDa Fe-S protein 1 (NDUFS1), leading to decreased mitochondrial respiration, marked oxidative stress, and commitment to the mitochondrial pathway of apoptosis. MDM2 directly binds and sequesters NDUFS1, preventing its mitochondrial localization and ultimately causing complex I and supercomplex destabilization and inefficiency of oxidative phosphorylation. The MDM2 amino-terminal region is sufficient to bind NDUFS1, alter supercomplex assembly, and induce apoptosis. Finally, this pathway is independent of p53, and several mitochondrial phenotypes are observed in Drosophila and murine models expressing transgenic Mdm2

Clinical, environmental, and genetic risk factors for substance use disorders : characterizing combined effects across multiple cohorts

Substance use disorders (SUDs) incur serious social and personal costs. The risk for SUDs is complex, with risk factors ranging from social conditions to individual genetic variation. We examined whether models that include a clinical/environmental risk index (CERI) and polygenic scores (PGS) are able to identify individuals at increased risk of SUD in young adulthood across four longitudinal cohorts for a combined sample of N = 15,134. Our analyses included participants of European (N-EUR = 12,659) and African (N-AFR = 2475) ancestries. SUD outcomes included: (1) alcohol dependence, (2) nicotine dependence; (3) drug dependence, and (4) any substance dependence. In the models containing the PGS and CERI, the CERI was associated with all three outcomes (ORs = 01.37-1.67). PGS for problematic alcohol use, externalizing, and smoking quantity were associated with alcohol dependence, drug dependence, and nicotine dependence, respectively (OR = 1.11-1.33). PGS for problematic alcohol use and externalizing were also associated with any substance dependence (ORs = 1.09-1.18). The full model explained 6-13% of the variance in SUDs. Those in the top 10% of CERI and PGS had relative risk ratios of 3.86-8.04 for each SUD relative to the bottom 90%. Overall, the combined measures of clinical, environmental, and genetic risk demonstrated modest ability to distinguish between affected and unaffected individuals in young adulthood. PGS were significant but added little in addition to the clinical/environmental risk index. Results from our analysis demonstrate there is still considerable work to be done before tools such as these are ready for clinical applications.Peer reviewe

Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world’s largest fish, the whale shark

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Womersley, F. C., Humphries, N. E., Queiroz, N., Vedor, M., da Costa, I., Furtado, M., Tyminski, J. P., Abrantes, K., Araujo, G., Bach, S. S., Barnett, A., Berumen, M. L., Bessudo Lion, S., Braun, C. D., Clingham, E., Cochran, J. E. M., de la Parra, R., Diamant, S., Dove, A. D. M., Dudgeon, C. L., Erdmann, M. V., Espinoza, E., Fitzpatrick, R., González Cano, J., Green, J. R., Guzman, H. M., Hardenstine, R., Hasan, A., Hazin, F. H. V., Hearn, A. R., Hueter, R. E., Jaidah, M. Y., Labaja, J., Ladinol, F., Macena, B. C. L., Morris Jr., J. J., Norman, B. M., Peñaherrera-Palmav, C., Pierce, S. J., Quintero, L. M., Ramırez-Macías, D., Reynolds, S. D., Richardson, A. J., Robinson, D. P., Rohner, C. A., Rowat, D. R. L., Sheaves, M., Shivji, M. S., Sianipar, A. B., Skomal, G. B., Soler, G., Syakurachman, I., Thorrold, S. R., Webb, D. H., Wetherbee, B. M., White, T. D., Clavelle, T., Kroodsma, D. A., Thums, M., Ferreira, L. C., Meekan, M. G., Arrowsmith, L. M., Lester, E. K., Meyers, M. M., Peel, L. R., Sequeira, A. M. M., Eguıluz, V. M., Duarte, C. M., & Sims, D. W. Global collision-risk hotspots of marine traffic and the world’s largest fish, the whale shark. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(20), (2022): e2117440119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117440119.Marine traffic is increasing globally yet collisions with endangered megafauna such as whales, sea turtles, and planktivorous sharks go largely undetected or unreported. Collisions leading to mortality can have population-level consequences for endangered species. Hence, identifying simultaneous space use of megafauna and shipping throughout ranges may reveal as-yet-unknown spatial targets requiring conservation. However, global studies tracking megafauna and shipping occurrences are lacking. Here we combine satellite-tracked movements of the whale shark, Rhincodon typus, and vessel activity to show that 92% of sharks’ horizontal space use and nearly 50% of vertical space use overlap with persistent large vessel (>300 gross tons) traffic. Collision-risk estimates correlated with reported whale shark mortality from ship strikes, indicating higher mortality in areas with greatest overlap. Hotspots of potential collision risk were evident in all major oceans, predominantly from overlap with cargo and tanker vessels, and were concentrated in gulf regions, where dense traffic co-occurred with seasonal shark movements. Nearly a third of whale shark hotspots overlapped with the highest collision-risk areas, with the last known locations of tracked sharks coinciding with busier shipping routes more often than expected. Depth-recording tags provided evidence for sinking, likely dead, whale sharks, suggesting substantial “cryptic” lethal ship strikes are possible, which could explain why whale shark population declines continue despite international protection and low fishing-induced mortality. Mitigation measures to reduce ship-strike risk should be considered to conserve this species and other ocean giants that are likely experiencing similar impacts from growing global vessel traffic.Funding for data analysis was provided by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP PhD Studentship to F.C.W. Additional funding for data analysis was provided by NERC Discovery Science (NE/R00997/X/1) and the European Research Council (ERC-AdG-2019 883583 OCEAN DEOXYFISH) to D.W.S., Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) under PTDC/BIA/28855/2017 and COMPETE POCI-01–0145-FEDER-028855, and MARINFO–NORTE-01–0145-FEDER-000031 (funded by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Program [NORTE2020] under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund–ERDF) to N.Q. FCT also supported N.Q. (CEECIND/02857/2018) and M.V. (PTDC/BIA-COM/28855/2017). D.W.S. was supported by a Marine Biological Association Senior Research Fellowship. All tagging procedures were approved by institutional ethical review bodies and complied with all relevant ethical regulations in the jurisdictions in which they were performed. Details for individual research teams are given in SI Appendix, section 8. Full acknowledgments for tagging and field research are given in SI Appendix, section 7. This research is part of the Global Shark Movement Project (https://www.globalsharkmovement.org)

The Kalanchoe genome provides insights into convergent evolution and building blocks of crassulacean acid metabolism

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) is a water-use efficient adaptation of photosynthesis that has evolved independently many times in diverse lineages of flowering plants. We hypothesize that convergent evolution of protein sequence and temporal gene expression underpins the independent emergences of CAM from C3 photosynthesis. To test this hypothesis, we generate a de novo genome assembly and genome-wide transcript expression data for Kalanchoë fedtschenkoi, an obligate CAM species within the core eudicots with a relatively small genome (~260 Mb). Our comparative analyses identify signatures of convergence in protein sequence and re-scheduling of diel transcript expression of genes involved in nocturnal CO2 fixation, stomatal movement, heat tolerance, circadian clock, and carbohydrate metabolism in K. fedtschenkoi and other CAM species in comparison with non-CAM species. These findings provide new insights into molecular convergence and building blocks of CAM and will facilitate CAM-into-C3 photosynthesis engineering to enhance water-use efficiency in crops