The Dzhungarian fault: Late Quaternary tectonics and slip rate of a major right-lateral strike-slip fault in the northern Tien Shan region

The Dzhungarian strike-slip fault of Central Asia is one of a series of long, NW-SE right-lateral strike-slip faults that are characteristic of the northern Tien Shan region and extends over 300 km from the high mountains into the Kazakh Platform. Our field-based and satellite observations reveal that the Dzhungarian fault can be characterized by three 100 km long sections based on variation in strike direction. Through morphological analysis of offset streams and alluvial fans, and through optically stimulated luminescence dating, we find that the Dzhungarian fault has a minimum average late Quaternary slip rate of 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr and accommodates N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. This shortening may also be partly accommodated by counterclockwise rotation about a vertical axis. Evidence for a possible paleo-earthquake rupture indicates that earthquakes up to at least Mw 7 can be associated with just the partitioned component of reverse slip on segments of the central section of the fault up to 30 km long. An event rupturing longer sections of the Dzhungarian fault has the potential to generate greater magnitude earthquakes (Mw 8); however, long time periods (e.g., thousands of years) are expected in order to accumulate enough strain to generate such earthquakes.We thank the Royal Society International Travel Grant, Mike Coward Fund of the Geological Society of London, Percy Sladen Fund of the Linnean Society, The Gilchrist Educational Trust, and the Earth and Space Foundation for their support in funding this project. GEC’s doctoral studentship is funded by the National Environmental Research Council through NCEO, COMET, and the NERC-ESRC funded Earthquakes without Frontiers (EWF) Project. RTW is supported by a University Research Fellowship awarded by the Royal Society.This is the final version of the article, originally published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. It is also available from Wiley at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrb.50367/abstract. © 2013. American Geophysical Unio

Towards an improved seismic risk scenario for Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

A risk scenario for Bishkek, capital of the Kyrgyz Republic, is evaluated by considering a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurring over the Issyk-Ata fault.The intensity values predicted through the application of an attenuation relationship and a recently compiled vulnerability composition model are used as inputs for seismic risk assessment, carried out using the CREST (Cedim Risk Estimation Tool) code. Although the results of this study show a reduction by as much as a factor of two with respect to the results of earlier studies, the risk scenario evaluated in this paper confirms the large number of expected injuries and fatalities in Bishkek, as well as the severe level of building damage. Furthermore, the intensity map has also been evaluated by performing stochastic simulations. The spectral levels of the ground shaking are converted into intensity values by applying a previously derived conversion technique. The local site effects are empirically estimated considering the spectral ratios between the earthquakes recorded by a temporary network deployed in Bishkek and the recordings at two reference sites. Although the intensities computed via stochastic simulations are lower than those estimated with the attenuation relationship, the simulations showed that site effects, which can contribute to intensity increments as large as 2 units in the north part of the town, are playing an important role in altering the risk estimates for different parts of the town

Great earthquakes in low strain rate continental interiors: An example from SE Kazakhstan

The Lepsy fault of the northern Tien Shan, SE Kazakhstan, extends E-W 120 km from the high mountains of the Dzhungarian Ala-tau, a subrange of the northern Tien Shan, into the low-lying Kazakh platform. It is an example of an active structure that connects a more rapidly deforming mountain region with an apparently stable continental region and follows a known Palaeozoic structure. Field-based and satellite observations reveal an ∼10 m vertical offset exceptionally preserved along the entire length of the fault. Geomorphic analysis and age control from radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating methods indicate that the scarp formed in the Holocene and was generated by at least two substantial earthquakes. The most recent event, dated to sometime after ∼400 years B.P., is likely to have ruptured the entire ∼120 km fault length in a Mw 7.5–8.2 earthquake. The Lepsy fault kinematics were characterized using digital elevation models and high-resolution satellite imagery, which indicate that the predominant sense of motion is reverse right lateral with a fault strike, dip, and slip vector azimuth of ∼110∘, 50∘S, and 317–343∘, respectively, which is consistent with predominant N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. In light of these observations, and because the activity of the Lepsy fault would have been hard to ascertain if it had not ruptured in the recent past, we note that the absence of known active faults within low-relief and low strain rate continental interiors does not always imply an absence of seismic hazard

Assessing the activity of faults in continental interiors: Palaeoseismic insights from SE Kazakhstan

The presence of fault scarps is a first-order criterion for identifying active faults. Yet the preservation of these features depends on the recurrence interval between surface rupturing events, combined with the rates of erosional and depositional processes that act on the landscape. Within arid continental interiors single earthquake scarps can be preserved for thousands of years, and yet the interval between surface ruptures on faults in these regions may be much longer, such that the lack of evidence for surface faulting in the morphology may not preclude activity on those faults. In this study we investigate the 50 km-long ‘Toraigyr’ thrust fault in the northern Tien Shan. From palaeoseismological trenching we show that two surface rupturing earthquakes occurred in the last $\textbf{39.9±2.7 ka}$ BP, but only the most recent event (3.15–3.6 ka BP) has a clear morphological expression. We conclude that a landscape reset took place in between the two events, likely as a consequence of the climatic change at the end of the last glacial maximum. These findings illustrate that in the Tien Shan evidence for the most recent active faulting can be easily obliterated by climatic processes due to the long earthquake recurrence intervals. Our results illustrate the problems related to the assessment of active tectonic deformation and seismic hazard assessments in continental interior settings.This study was financed by NERC and ESRC (Earthquakes without Frontiers project, Grant code: EwF_NE/J02001X/1_1), and the Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes and Tectonics (COMET). KOMPSAT-2 imagery was obtained through a category-1 award to RTW. EJC thanks St. Edmund Hall for travel support. RTW was supported during this research by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society of London

Probing the upper end of intracontinental earthquake magnitude: a prehistoric example from the Dzhungarian and Lepsy faults of Kazakhstan

The study of surface ruptures is key to understanding the earthquake occurrence of faults especially in the absence of historical events. We present a detailed analysis of geomorphic displacements along the Dzhungarian Fault, which straddles the border of China and Kazakhstan. We use digital elevation models derived from structure-from-motion analysis of Pléiades satellite imagery and drone imagery from specific field sites to measure surface offsets. We provide direct age constraints from alluvial terraces displaced by faulting and indirect dating from morphological analysis of the scarps. We find that the southern 250 km of the fault likely ruptured in a single event in the last 4,000 years, with displacements of 10–15 m, and potentially up to 20 m at one site. We infer that this Dzhungarian rupture is likely linked with a previously identified paleo-earthquake rupture on the Lepsy Fault through a system of splays in the intervening highlands. Though there are remaining uncertainties regarding consistency in age constraints between the two fault ruptures, most of the sites along the two faults are consistent with a most recent event 2,000–4,000 years ago. Rupture on the Dzhungarian Fault alone is likely to have exceeded Mw 8, and the combined Lepsy-Dzhungarian rupture scenario may have been up to Mw 8.4. Despite being at the upper end of known or inferred continental earthquake magnitudes, our proposed scenario combining the 375 km of the Dzhungarian and Lepsy ruptures yields a slip-to-length ratio consistent with global averages and so do other historical intracontinental earthquakes in Central Asia

ПОЛЯ НАПРЯЖЕНИЙ ПО АФТЕРШОКАМ СИЛЬНЕЙШИХ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ ТЯНЬ-ШАНЯ

This study focused on the state of stress in the aftershock areas of the strongest earthquakes registered in Tien Shanon 11 August 1974 (MS=7.3), 24 March 1978 (MS=7.1), 01 November 1978 (MS=6.8), 19 August 1992 (MS=7.3), and 05 October 2008 (MS=6.9). These earthquakes occurred in similar geodynamic conditions in the zone of the nearly N–S oriented compression caused by the India-Eurasia collision. The parameters of the state of stress were determined by Yu.L. Rebetsky method of cataclastic analysis (MCA) of displacements on faults, based on the focal mechanisms of aftershocks. In the first stage of MCA, we determined the orientations of the principal stress axes, the Lode-Nadai coefficients, and the geodynamic types of the state of stress in the study area. The stress fields reconstructed from the aftershocks of different energy levels show that the principal deviatoric stress axes pattern becomes less orderly as the magnitude of seismic events decreases. A peculiar feature of the aftershock process is the misalignment of the axes of maximum compression in the mechanisms of the weakest aftershocks and the compression axis in the focal mechanism of the main seismic event. Most of the aftershocks were recorded west of the location of the main earthquake.Изучены особенности напряженного состояния афтершоковых областей сильнейших землетрясений, зарегистрированных на территории Тянь-Шаня: 11 августа 1974 г. (Мs=7.3), 24 марта 1978 г. (MS=7.0), 1 ноября 1978 г. (MS=6.8), 19 августа 1992 г. (MS=7.3) и 5 октября 2008 г. (MS=6.9). Рассматриваемые землетрясения произошли в сходных геодинамических условиях – в зоне близмеридионального сжатия за счет Индо-Евразийской коллизии. Восстановление параметров напряженного состояния проводилось по методу катакластического анализа разрывных смещений Ю.Л. Ребецкого с использованием механизмов очагов афтершоков. В работе рассматриваются результаты первого этапа МКА, позволившего реконструировать ориентацию главных осей напряжений и такие параметры, как коэффициент Лоде – Надаи и геодинамический тип напряженного состояния. Полученные поля напряжений по афтершокам разных энергетических уровней показывают уменьшение упорядоченности осей главных девиаторных напряжений по мере уменьшения магнитуд событий. Одной из особенностей афтершокового процесса является несоосность осей максимального сжатия механизмов наиболее слабых афтершоков и оси сжатия механизма очага главного события. Основная масса афтершоков регистрируется западне

Active Tectonics Around Almaty and along the Zailisky Alatau Rangefront

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017TC004657/abstractThe Zailisky Alatau is a >250-km-long mountain range in Southern Kazakhstan. Its northern rangefront around the major city of Almaty has more than 4 km topographic relief, yet in contrast to other large mountain fronts in the Tien Shan, little is known about its Late Quaternary tectonic activity despite several destructive earthquakes in the historical record. We analyse the tectonic geomorphology of the rangefront fault using field observations, differential GPS measurements of fault scarps, historical and recent satellite imagery, metre-scale topography derived from stereo satellite images, and decimetre-scale elevation models from UAV surveys. Fault scarps ranging in height from ~2 m to >20 m in alluvial fans indicate surface rupturing earthquakes occurred along the rangefront fault since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Minimum estimated magnitudes for those earthquakes are M6.8- 7. Radiocarbon dating results from charcoal layers in uplifted river terraces indicate a Holocene slip rate of ~1.2-2.2 mm/a. We find additional evidence for active tectonic deformation all along the Almaty rangefront, basinward in the Kazakh platform, and in the interior of the Zailisky mountain range. Our data indicate the seismic hazard faced by Almaty comes from a variety of sources, and we emphasize the problems related to urban growth into the loess-covered foothills and secondary earthquake effects. With our structural and geochronologic framework we present a schematic evolution of the Almaty rangefront that may be applicable to similar settings of tectonic shortening in the mountain ranges of Central Asia