Judging a Part by the Size of its Whole: The Category Size Bias in Probability Judgments

Consumers might be said to have a prediction addiction—they speculate about sports, politics, weather, stocks, sweepstakes, health, and relationships, to name just a few areas. What’s more, predictions often guide their decisions.For example, they may decide to carry an umbrella after considering the chance of rain, to invest after forecasting the stock market’s performance, or to marry after predicting the likelihood of marital bliss. With all this practice, one might expect consumers to be good at judging probability. However, their predictions are often wrong.https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/huntsman_news/1175/thumbnail.jp

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) : refining the local galaxy merger rate using morphological information

KRVS acknowledges the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) for providing funding for this project, as well as the Government of Catalonia for a research travel grant (ref. 2010 BE-00268) to begin this project at the University of Nottingham. PN acknowledges the support of the Royal Society through the award of a University Research Fellowship and the European Research Council, through receipt of a Starting Grant (DEGAS-259586).We use the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey to measure the local Universe mass-dependent merger fraction and merger rate using galaxy pairs and the CAS (concentration, asymmetry, and smoothness) structural method, which identifies highly asymmetric merger candidate galaxies. Our goals are to determine which types of mergers produce highly asymmetrical galaxies and to provide a new measurement of the local galaxy major merger rate. We examine galaxy pairs at stellar mass limits down to M* = 108 M⊙ with mass ratios of 4:1) the lower mass companion becomes highly asymmetric, whereas the larger galaxy is much less affected. The fraction of highly asymmetric paired galaxies which have a major merger companion is highest for the most massive galaxies and drops progressively with decreasing mass. We calculate that the mass-dependent major merger fraction is fairly constant at ∼1.3–2 per cent within 109.5 < M* < 1011.5 M⊙, and increases to ∼4 per cent at lower masses. When the observability time-scales are taken into consideration, the major merger rate is found to approximately triple over the mass range we consider. The total comoving volume major merger rate over the range 108.0 < M* < 1011.5 M⊙ is (1.2 ± 0.5) × 10−3 h370 Mpc−3 Gyr−1.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA): the stellar mass budget of galaxy spheroids and discs

We build on a recent photometric decomposition analysis of 7506 Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey galaxies to derive stellar mass function fits to individual spheroid and disc component populations down to a lower mass limit of log(M*/M⊙) = 8. We find that the spheroid/disc mass distributions for individual galaxy morphological types are well described by single Schechter function forms. We derive estimates of the total stellar mass densities in spheroids (ρspheroid = 1.24 ± 0.49 × 108 M⊙ Mpc -3h0.7) and discs (ρdisc = 1.20 ± 0.45 × 108 M⊙ Mpc -3h0.7), which translates to approximately 50 per cent of the local stellar mass density in spheroids and 48 per cent in discs. The remaining stellar mass is found in the dwarf 'little blue spheroid' class, which is not obviously similar in structure to either classical spheroid or disc populations. We also examine the variation of component mass ratios across galaxy mass and group halo mass regimes, finding the transition from spheroid to disc mass dominance occurs near galaxy stellar mass ~1011 M⊙ and group halo mass ~1012.5 M⊙h-1. We further quantify the variation in spheroid-to-total mass ratio with group halo mass for central and satellite populations as well as the radial variation of this ratio within groups.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Galaxy and mass assembly (GAMA): A deeper view of the mass, metallicity and SFR relationships

A full appreciation of the role played by gasmetallicity (Z), star formation rate (SFR) and stellar mass (M*) is fundamental to understanding how galaxies form and evolve. The connections between these three parameters at different redshifts significantl

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): stellar mass growth of spiral galaxies in the cosmic web

We look for correlated changes in stellar mass and star formation rate (SFR) along filaments in the cosmic web by examining the stellar masses and UV-derived SFRs of 1799 ungrouped and unpaired spiral galaxies that reside in filaments. We devise multiple distance metrics to characterize the complex geometry of filaments, and find that galaxies closer to the cylindrical centre of a filament have higher stellar masses than their counterparts near the periphery of filaments, on the edges of voids. In addition, these peripheral spiral galaxies have higher SFRs at a given mass. Complementing our sample of filament spiral galaxies with spiral galaxies in tendrils and voids, we find that the average SFR of these objects in different large-scale environments are similar to each other with the primary discriminant in SFR being stellar mass, in line with previous works. However, the distributions of SFRs are found to vary with large-scale environment. Our results thus suggest a model in which in addition to stellar mass as the primary discriminant, the large-scale environment is imprinted in the SFR as a second-order effect. Furthermore, our detailed results for filament galaxies suggest a model in which gas accretion from voids on to filaments is primarily in an orthogonal direction. Overall, we find our results to be in line with theoretical expectations of the thermodynamic properties of the intergalactic medium in different large-scale environments

Deep Investigation of Neutral Gas Origins (DINGO): HI stacking experiments with early science data

We present early science results from Deep Investigation of Neutral Gas Origins (DINGO), an HI survey using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP). Using ASKAP sub-arrays available during its commissioning phase, DINGO early science data were taken over $\sim$ 60 deg$^{2}$ of the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) 23 h region with 35.5 hr integration time. We make direct detections of six known and one new sources at $z < 0.01$. Using HI spectral stacking, we investigate the HI gas content of galaxies at $0.04 < z< 0.09$ for different galaxy colours. The results show that galaxy morphology based on optical colour is strongly linked to HI gas properties. To examine environmental impacts on the HI gas content of galaxies, three sub-samples are made based on the GAMA group catalogue. The average HI mass of group central galaxies is larger than those of satellite and isolated galaxies, but with a lower HI gas fraction. We derive a variety of HI scaling relations for physical properties of our sample, including stellar mass, stellar mass surface density, $NUV-r$ colour, specific star formation rate, and halo mass. We find that the derived HI scaling relations are comparable to other published results, with consistent trends also observed to $\sim$0.5 dex lower limits in stellar mass and stellar surface density. The cosmic HI densities derived from our data are consistent with other published values at similar redshifts. DINGO early science highlights the power of HI spectral stacking techniques with ASKAP.Comment: 27 pages, 25 figures, 10 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): stellar mass estimates

This paper describes the first catalogue of photometrically derived stellar mass estimates for intermediate-redshift (z < 0.65; median z= 0.2) galaxies in the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) spectroscopic redshift survey. These masses, as well as the full set of ancillary stellar population parameters, will be made public as part of GAMA data release 2. Although the GAMA database does include near-infrared (NIR) photometry, we show that the quality of our stellar population synthesis fits is significantly poorer when these NIR data are included. Further, for a large fraction of galaxies, the stellar population parameters inferred from the optical-plus-NIR photometry are formally inconsistent with those inferred from the optical data alone. This may indicate problems in our stellar population library, or NIR data issues, or both; these issues will be addressed for future versions of the catalogue. For now, we have chosen to base our stellar mass estimates on optical photometry only. In light of our decision to ignore the available NIR data, we examine how well stellar mass can be constrained based on optical data alone. We use generic properties of stellar population synthesis models to demonstrate that restframe colour alone is in principle a very good estimator of stellar mass-to-light ratio, M*/Li. Further, we use the observed relation between restframe (g−i) and M*/Li for real GAMA galaxies to argue that, modulo uncertainties in the stellar evolution models themselves, (g−i) colour can in practice be used to estimate M*/Li to an accuracy of ≲0.1 dex (1σ). This ‘empirically calibrated' (g−i)-M*/Li relation offers a simple and transparent means for estimating galaxies' stellar masses based on minimal data, and so provides a solid basis for other surveys to compare their results to z≲0.4 measurements from GAM

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): Linking star formation histories and stellar mass growth

WWe present evidence for stochastic star formation histories in low-mass (M* <1010M⊙) galaxies from observations within the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. For ̃73 000 galaxies between 0.05 < z < 0.32, we calculate star formation rate