Testing Creditor Moral Hazard in Sovereign Bond Markets: A Unified Theoretical Approach and Empirical Evidence

This paper critically evaluates the existing empirical literature on creditor moral hazard in sovereign bond markets, proposes a unified theoretical approach to test for IMF-induced creditor moral hazard, and provides empirical evidence, using daily sovereign bond market spreads of Indonesia and Korea. The results suggest that IMF-related news regarding program negotiations and approval may be associated with creditor moral hazard, but their impact on spreads is short-lived, indicating that creditor moral hazard could be best described as a short-run phenomenon.Creditor moral hazard, financial markets, the IMF, and news

Vibration based damage identification of a scale-model steel frame structure subjected to bolt connection failures

Large-span steel frame structures prove to be an ideal choice for their speed of construction, relatively low cost, strength, durability and structural design flexibility. For this type of structure, the beam-column connections are critical for its structural integrity and overall stability. This is because a steel frame generally fails first at its connectors, due to the change in stress redistribution with adjacent members and material related failures, caused by various factors such as fire, seismic activity or material deterioration. Since particular attention is required at a steel frame’s connection points, this study explores the applicability of a comprehensive structural health monitoring (SHM) method to identify early damage and prolong the lifespan of connection points of steel frames. An impact hammer test was performed on a scale-model steel frame structure, recording its dynamic response to the hammer strike via an accelerometer. The testing procedure included an intact scenario and two damage scenarios by unfastening four bolt connections in an accumulating order. Based entirely on time-domain experimental data for its calibration, an Auto Regressive Average Exogenous (ARMAX) model is used to create a simple and accurate model for vibration simulation. The calibrated ARMAX model is then used to identify various bolt-connection related damage scenarios via R2 value. The findings in this study suggest that the proposed time-domain approach is capable of identifying structural damage in a parsimonious manner and can be used as a quick or initial solution

Examining the Springback Of Dkp Sheet with Different Thickness in the V-Bending Process Carried Out in Different Angles

Sac malzemelerin şekillendirilmesinde karşılaşılan en büyük problemlerden biri geri esnemedir. Sac malzemede oluşan geri esneme, istenilen ölçülerin değişmesine yol açar bu da istenilmeyen bir olaydır. Kalıptan çıkacak parçanın istenilen tolerans sınırları içinde olması için bükme kalıplarında bükülen sac malzemelerin geri esneme miktarlarının bilinmesi bu yüzden çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, V-bükme kalıplarında geri esnemenin deneysel olarak tespiti araştırılmıştır. Geri esneme miktarlarının belirlenebilmesi için bir V-bükme kalıbı tasarlanmış, deney malzemesi olarak DKP sac kullanılmıştır. Numuneler 60, 90 ve 120 derece olan V-bükme kalıp açılarında ve her açı için de 2 mm ve 6 mm olan farklı zımba radyüs değerleri kullanılarak bükme yapılmıştır. Geri esneme deneylerinde her bir parametre için 5 er adet numune bükülerek test yapılmıştır. Deney sonrası bükülmüş olan numunelerin geri esnemeleri açı ölçer ve optik projeksiyon cihazı kullanılarak ölçülmüş olup sonuçlar grafikler üzerinde gösterilmiştir.One of the biggest problems in forming sheet metals is to springback. Springback which occurs in material causes to change of the necessary measures and this is an unwanted event. It is vital to know that springback quantity of bending materials in V-bending mould so as to be the piece in tolerance limits. In this study, the evaluation of springback in V-bending mould was empirically researched. In order to determine the quantity of springback, a V-bending mould was designed, DKP was used as test equipment. The specimens were in 60, 90 and 120 V-bending mould angle and they were bended by using 2 and 6 mm different punch radius rate in every angle. In springback tests, test was made by bending 5 speciments for every parameter. After the test, springbacks of the speciments that were bended was measured by using protractor and optical projection device and the results were shown on the graphs

Investigating Students’ Perspectives of Foreign Language Distance Education Curriculum According to Some Variables

This study was carried out to investigate the students’ satisfaction levels of foreign language distance education curriculum in a state university according to some variables. In the study, it was aimed to answer these questions: “What are the students’ opinions about the distance education curriculum of Foreign Language I course and do their opinions differ according to some variables?” Context, Input, Process and Production (CIPP) evaluation model was used as a curriculum evaluation framework and descriptive survey model, one of the quantitative research models, was used in this study. Sample of the study is composed of 715 freshman students who are enrolled in the faculties and colleges of university and took the Foreign Language I course in 2015-2016 academic year. 5-point likert scale was developed by the researchers to collect data. Independent samples t-test and one-way Anova was used to analyze the collected data with the help of SPSS 20. As a result of the study, it was found out that the students’ responses are gathered around the "I neither agree nor disagree" option. The component which has the highest satisfaction level is process component of curriculum and product component has the least satisfaction level. Opinions of the students about curriculum don’t differ significantly according to their gender and age. However, their opinions differ significantly according to their education type, daily internet connection hours and final grades. Also the students, who have personal computer and have attended another distance education, have more positive opinions than the students who don’t have computer and any distance education experience

Tetra­aqua­bis(orotato-κO)cobalt(II) dihydrate

In the title CoII complex, [Co(C5H3N2O4)2(H2O)4]·2H2O, the CoII ion is located on an inversion center and is coordinated by two orotate (2,6-dioxo-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyrimidine-4-carboxylate) anions and four water mol­ecules in a slightly distorted octa­hedral geometry. The dihedral angle between the carboxyl­ate group and the attached orotate ring is 1.2 (3)°. In the crystal structure, inter­molecular O—H⋯O, N—H⋯O and C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds link the mol­ecules into a three-dimensional network. π–π contacts between the orotate rings [centroid–centroid distances = 3.439 (2) and 3.438 (2) Å] further stabilize the structure

Investigation of morphometric parameters of mandibula processus coronoideus between sides

Aim: In our study, the relationship between mandible coronoid process and other mandible morphometric parameters in dry bones and it is aimed to compare these data between the sides. Materials and Methods: In the anatomy laboratory, 22 mandible from the bone collection were photographed in three different ways, from right-left lateral and posterior, using a digital camera. Measurements were performed on digital images using Image J software. Morphometric parameters of coronoid process and morphometric parameters of mandible ramus and body were determined. Coronoid process types were hooked, triangular, round and square. The parameters were compared between the two sides and correlation analysis was performed. Results: There was no significant difference between the right and left sides in all parameters. There was no difference between the parties in the percent distribution of processus coronoideus types. There was a high correlation between processus coronoideus area and processus coronoideus height on both sides (p <0.001). Correlation values of the processus coronoideus parameters on the right side were higher than the left side. Conclusion: For the differences in the morphometric parameter values between the coronoid process between the sides, further studies should be conducted in the developmental process up to childhood, adolescence and adulthood. Furthermore, further studies are needed to evaluate the effects of chewing side preference on processus coronoideus and to assess the differences in side/gender

Neonatal outcomes among twins following assisted reproductive technology: An Australian population-based retrospective cohort study

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: While their incidence is on the rise, twin pregnancies are associated with risks to the mothers and their babies. This study aims to investigate the likelihood of adverse neonatal outcomes of twins following assisted reproductive technology (ART) compared to non-ART twins. Methods: A retrospective population study using the Australian National Perinatal Data Collections (NPDC) which included 19,662 twins of ≥20weeks gestational age or≥400g birthweight in Australia. Maternal outcomes and neonatal outcomes (preterm birth, low birth weight, resuscitation and neonatal death) were compared. Generalized Estimating Equations were used to assess the likelihood of any neonatal outcomes, with adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) presented. Weinberg's differential rule was used to estimate monozygotic twin rate. Results: ART mothers were 3.3years older than non-ART mothers. The rates of pregnancy-induced hypertension and gestational diabetes were significantly higher for ART mothers than non-ART mothers (12.2% vs. 8.4%, p< 0.01) and (9.7% vs. 7.5%, p< 0.01) respectively. The incidence of monozygotic twins was 2.0% for ART twins and 1.1% for non-ART twins. Compared with non-ART twins, ART twins had higher rates of preterm birth (AOR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05-1.22), low birth weight (AOR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05-1.22), and resuscitation (AOR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.17-1.36). Liveborn ART twins had 28% (AOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.50) increased odds of having any adverse neonatal outcome compared to liveborn non-ART twins, especially for opposite-sex ART twins (AOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.11-1.82). Conclusion: As ART twins had higher rates of adverse outcome, special prenatal care is recommended. Couples accessing ART should be fully informed of the risk of adverse outcome of twin pregnancies

Comprehensive analysis of resampling methods on ensemble learning for credit card fraud detection

Kredi kartı aracılığıyla hızlı ve kolay satın alma işlemleri sahtecilik işlemlerinin artmasına neden olmuştur. Son yıllarda makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin kullanımı sahtecilik tespiti işlemlerinde önemli bir pay oluşturmuştur. Sahtecilik tespiti işlemlerinde karşılaşılan yaygın problemlerden birisi veri kümelerinin dengesiz olmasıdır. Dengesizlik problemi için kullanılan yeniden örnekleme metotları kullanıldıkları aşamalar bakımından çalışmadan çalışmaya farklılık gösterebilmektedir. Bu çalışma başlıca topluluk öğrenmesi yöntemleri olmak üzere çeşitli makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerini kullanarak yeniden örnekleme metotlarının kullanıldıkları aşamalara göre yarattığı etkileri karşılaştırmaktadır. Karşılaştırma sonucunda, çapraz doğrulama metodu aracılığıyla yeniden örnekleme metotlarının eğitim ve test veri kümelerine ayrı ayrı yapılmasının en doğru sonucu verdiği gösterilmiştir. Bununla birlikte bu çalışmada kullanılan XGB, LGBM, RF, FNN ve diğer metotların metrik değerlerine dayanan bir başka kıyaslamada ise XGB ve FNN metotları %99 duyarlılık, kesinlik ve doğruluk ile en yüksek değerlere ulaşmışlardır.Rapid and easy purchases via credit cards have led to a rise in fraudulent transactions. In recent years, machine learning methods have been an important part of fraud detection processes. One of the common problems encountered in processes of fraud detection is the imbalance in datasets. Resampling methods used for the problem of imbalance may differ from study to study in terms of the stages these methods are applied. This study compares the effects of resampling methods according to these stages, using various ensemble learning methods, including a few machine learning and deep learning methods. The comparison utilizing cross-validation technique shows that applying the resampling methods separately to the training and test datasets method gives the most accurate result. However, in another comparison by metric scores of XGB, LGBM, RF, FNN, and other methods used in this study, XGB and FNN techniques give the highest values with 99% recall, precision, and accuracy

Synergistic impact of motion and acquisition/reconstruction parameters on F-18-FDG PET radiomic features in non-small cell lung cancer:Phantom and clinical studies

Objectives: This study is aimed at examining the synergistic impact of motion and acquisition/reconstruction parameters on 18 F-FDG PET image radiomic features in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, and investigating the robustness of features performance in differentiating NSCLC histopathology subtypes. Methods: An in-house developed thoracic phantom incorporating lesions with different sizes was used with different reconstruction settings, including various reconstruction algorithms, number of subsets and iterations, full-width at half-maximum of post-reconstruction smoothing filter and acquisition parameters, including injected activity and test-retest with and without motion simulation. To simulate motion, a special motor was manufactured to simulate respiratory motion based on a normal patient in two directions. The lesions were delineated semi-automatically to extract 174 radiomic features. All radiomic features were categorized according to the coefficient of variation (COV) to select robust features. A cohort consisting of 40 NSCLC patients with adenocarcinoma (n = 20) and squamous cell carcinoma (n = 20) was retrospectively analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed to discriminate robust features in differentiating histopathology subtypes of NSCLC lesions. Results: Overall, 29% of radiomic features showed a COV ≤5% against motion. Forty-five percent and 76% of the features showed a COV ≤ 5% against the test-retest with and without motion in large lesions, respectively. Thirty-three percent and 45% of the features showed a COV ≤ 5% against different reconstruction parameters with and without motion, respectively. For NSCLC histopathological subtype differentiation, statistical analysis showed that 31 features were significant (p-value &lt; 0.05). Two out of the 31 significant features, namely, the joint entropy of GLCM (AUC = 0.71, COV = 0.019) and median absolute deviation of intensity histogram (AUC = 0.7, COV = 0.046), were robust against the motion (same reconstruction setting). Conclusions: Motion, acquisition, and reconstruction parameters significantly impact radiomic features, just as their synergies. Radiomic features with high predictive performance (statistically significant) in differentiating histopathological subtype of NSCLC may be eliminated due to non-reproducibility.</p

The Effects of Separate and Combined Use of PGF2α and GnRH Hormones and the Addition of Βeta-Carotene on Fertility Parameters in Dairy Cows with Ovarian Cysts

Background: Ovarian cysts are commonly observed pathologies, which interfere with normal cyclic activity and adversely affect fertility in cows. Beta-carotene is effective in the reduction of reproductive problems by inducing the natural defence mechanisms of the body. There are several methods that can be used for the treatment of ovarian cysts. The separate and combined use of GnRH and PGF2α commonly uses in the treatment of ovarian cysts. Therefore, in the presented study the effects of Beta-carotene (βC) addition for the treatment of ovarian cysts either with GnRH solely or GnRH and PGF2α in combination on the fertility parameters of dairy cows were investigated.Materials, Methods &amp; Results: Seventy-six Holstein Friesian cows having ovarian cysts diagnosed by ultrasonography (USG) were divided into three groups. Cows in Group I (GI, n = 27), were injected with GnRH (Buserelin acetate, 5 mL, im), PGF2α (Tiaprost-trometamol, 5 mL, im) and βC (20 mL/cow, into 4 regions by im route). In Group II (GII, n = 25) GnRH (Buserelin acetate, 5 mL, im) and PGF2α (Tiaprost-trometamol, 5mL, im) were administrated while GnRH (Buserelin acetate, 5 mL, im) solely in Group III (GIII, n = 24). Cysts were monitored via USG, and blood samples were collected on the on day of treatment (day 0) and on the 7th and 14th days following the administrations. Cows shoving oestrous were inseminated and pregnancy diagnoses were performed on the 40th day following insemination. Treatment results showed that there were statistically no significant differences between GI and GII (P &gt; 0.05). Only numerical difference obtained in time from therapy to pregnancy and overall pregnancy index (P &gt; 0.05). Overall pregnancy rate (85 %), first service pregnancy rates (40 %) and overall pregnancy index (2.11) in GI were found significantly higher than GIII (53.3 %; 20 %; 4.12) [P &lt; 0.05]. No significant difference was observed in progesterone (P4) levels between the groups (P &gt; 0.05). It was found that βC administrations significantly increased βC levels in GI than GII and GIII on the 7th and 14th days (P &lt; 0.05).Discussion: One of the most common problems encountered in modern dairy production is the development of ovarian cysts. Treatments for ovarian cyst are numerous and variable, and have changed considerably over the years. In the present study, GnRH and PGF2α were administered together as a combination, and as a result of this combined use, higher percentages were obtained for both pregnancy rate and fertility parameters in GI and GII, in comparison to the group administered with GnRH alone (GIII). Better outcome from combination therapy (GnRH and PGF2α) may be due to the fact that luteal thickening in the walls of cysts was determined by ultrasonography, but P4 values were not identified immediately and the treatments were not categorized in accord with these values. No statistically significant differences were determined between GI and GII concerning the fertility parameters investigated, however numerical and proportional differences were observed. βC levels were significantly higher on day 7 and 14 after treatment in GI which were administered βC additionally to the treatment protocol for ovarian cysts. This statistical difference suggests that administration of βC in combination therapy is also effective in the treatment of ovarian cysts. In conclusion, it was determined that high pregnancy rates were obtained by the combined treatment of ovarian cysts (GnRH + PGF2α) and number of inseminations per conception were at desired limits. Better percentile and numerical fertility parameters were achieved in the group, which additionally received βC, high numbers of infertility cases, βC supplementation could be a viable option for treatment