Congestion behavior and tolls in a bottleneck model with stochastic capacity

In this paper we investigate a bottleneck model in which the capacity of the bottleneck is assumed stochastic and follows a uniform distribution. The commuters’ departure time choice is assumed to follow the user equilibrium principle according to mean trip cost. The analytical solution of the proposed model is derived. Both the analytical and numerical results show that the capacity variability would indeed change the commuters’ travel behavior by increasing the mean trip cost and lengthening the peak period. We then design congestion pricing schemes within the framework of the new stochastic bottleneck model, for both a time-varying toll and a single-step coarse toll, and prove that the proposed piecewise time-varying toll can effectively cut down, and even eliminate, the queues behind the bottleneck. We also find that the single-step coarse toll could either advance or postpone the earliest departure time. Furthermore, the numerical results show that the proposed pricing schemes can indeed improve the efficiency of the stochastic bottleneck through decreasing the system’s total travel cost

The success-index: an alternative approach to the h-index for evaluating an individual's research output

Among the most recent bibliometric indicators for normalizing the differences among fields of science in terms of citation behaviour, Kosmulski (J Informetr 5(3):481-485, 2011) proposed the NSP (number of successful paper) index. According to the authors, NSP deserves much attention for its great simplicity and immediate meaning— equivalent to those of the h-index—while it has the disadvantage of being prone to manipulation and not very efficient in terms of statistical significance. In the first part of the paper, we introduce the success-index, aimed at reducing the NSP-index's limitations, although requiring more computing effort. Next, we present a detailed analysis of the success-index from the point of view of its operational properties and a comparison with the h-index's ones. Particularly interesting is the examination of the success-index scale of measurement, which is much richer than the h-index's. This makes success-index much more versatile for different types of analysis—e.g., (cross-field) comparisons of the scientific output of (1) individual researchers, (2) researchers with different seniority, (3) research institutions of different size, (4) scientific journals, etc

Secondary bacterial infections of buruli ulcer lesions before and after chemotherapy with streptomycin and rifampicin

Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans is a chronic necrotizing skin disease. It usually starts with a subcutaneous nodule or plaque containing large clusters of extracellular acid-fast bacilli. Surrounding tissue is destroyed by the cytotoxic macrolide toxin mycolactone produced by microcolonies of M. ulcerans. Skin covering the destroyed subcutaneous fat and soft tissue may eventually break down leading to the formation of large ulcers that progress, if untreated, over months and years. Here we have analyzed the bacterial flora of BU lesions of three different groups of patients before, during and after daily treatment with streptomycin and rifampicin for eight weeks (SR8) and determined drug resistance of the bacteria isolated from the lesions. Before SR8 treatment, more than 60% of the examined BU lesions were infected with other bacteria, with Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa being the most prominent ones. During treatment, 65% of all lesions were still infected, mainly with P. aeruginosa. After completion of SR8 treatment, still more than 75% of lesions clinically suspected to be infected were microbiologically confirmed as infected, mainly with P. aeruginosa or Proteus miriabilis. Drug susceptibility tests revealed especially for S. aureus a high frequency of resistance to the first line drugs used in Ghana. Our results show that secondary infection of BU lesions is common. This could lead to delayed healing and should therefore be further investigated

Building Babies - Chapter 16

In contrast to birds, male mammals rarely help to raise the offspring. Of all mammals, only among rodents, carnivores, and primates, males are sometimes intensively engaged in providing infant care (Kleiman and Malcolm 1981). Male caretaking of infants has long been recognized in nonhuman primates (Itani 1959). Given that infant care behavior can have a positive effect on the infant’s development, growth, well-being, or survival, why are male mammals not more frequently involved in “building babies”? We begin the chapter defining a few relevant terms and introducing the theory and hypotheses that have historically addressed the evolution of paternal care. We then review empirical findings on male care among primate taxa, before focusing, in the final section, on our own work on paternal care in South American owl monkeys (Aotus spp.). We conclude the chapter with some suggestions for future studies.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (HU 1746/2-1) Wenner-Gren Foundation, the L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, the National Geographic Society, the National Science Foundation (BCS-0621020), the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation, the Zoological Society of San Dieg

The Formation and Evolution of the First Massive Black Holes

The first massive astrophysical black holes likely formed at high redshifts (z>10) at the centers of low mass (~10^6 Msun) dark matter concentrations. These black holes grow by mergers and gas accretion, evolve into the population of bright quasars observed at lower redshifts, and eventually leave the supermassive black hole remnants that are ubiquitous at the centers of galaxies in the nearby universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the formation of the earliest seed black holes are poorly understood. The purpose of this review is threefold: (1) to describe theoretical expectations for the formation and growth of the earliest black holes within the general paradigm of hierarchical cold dark matter cosmologies, (2) to summarize several relevant recent observations that have implications for the formation of the earliest black holes, and (3) to look into the future and assess the power of forthcoming observations to probe the physics of the first active galactic nuclei.Comment: 39 pages, review for "Supermassive Black Holes in the Distant Universe", Ed. A. J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publisher

Global epidemiology of podoconiosis: a systematic review

Background Podoconiosis is one of the few diseases that could potentially be eliminated within one generation. Nonetheless, the global distribution of the disease remains largely unknown. The global atlas of podoconiosis was conceived to define the epidemiology and distribution of podoconiosis through dedicated surveys and assembling the available epidemiological data. Methods We have synthesized the published literature on the epidemiology of podoconiosis. Through systematic searches in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception to February 14, 2018, we identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used case reports and presence data. For a study to be included in the prevalence synthesis, it needed to be a population-based survey that involved all residents within a specific area. Studies that did not report original data were excluded. We undertook descriptive analyses of the extracted data. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018084959. Results We identified 3,260 records, of which 27 studies met the inclusion criteria. Podoconiosis was described to exist or be endemic in 32 countries, 18 from the African Region, 3 from Asia and 11 from Latin America. Overall, podoconiosis prevalence ranged from 0·10% to 8.08%, was highest in the African region, and was substantially higher in adults than in children and adolescents. The highest reported prevalence values were in Africa (8.08% in Cameroon, 7.45% in Ethiopia, 4.52% in Uganda, 3.87% in Kenya and 2.51% in Tanzania). In India, a single prevalence of 0.21% was recorded from Manipur, Mizoram and Rajasthan states. None of the Latin American countries reported prevalence data. Conclusion Our data suggest that podoconiosis is more widespread in the African Region than in the rest of the regions, although this could be related to the fact that most podoconiosis epidemiological research has been focused in the African continent. The assembled dataset confirms that comprehensive podoconiosis control strategies such as promotion of footwear and personal hygiene are urgently needed in endemic parts of Africa. Mapping, active surveillance and a systematic approach to the monitoring of disease burden must accompany the implementation of podoconiosis control activities

Medical students’ preparedness for professional activities in early clerkships

Background Sufficient preparedness is important for transitions to workplace participation and learning in clinical settings. This study aims to analyse medical students’ preparedness for early clerkships using a three-dimensional, socio-cognitive, theory-based model of preparedness anchored in specific professional activities and their supervision level. Methods Medical students from a competency-based undergraduate curriculum were surveyed about preparedness for 21 professional activities and level of perceived supervision during their early clerkships via an online questionnaire. Preparedness was operationalized by the three dimensions of confidence to carry out clerkship activities, being prepared through university teaching and coping with failure by seeking support. Factors influencing preparedness and perceived stress as outcomes were analysed through step-wise regression. Results Professional activities carried out by the students (n = 147; 19.0%) and their supervision levels varied. While most students reported high confidence to perform the tasks, the activity-specific analysis revealed important gaps in preparation through university teaching. Students regularly searched for support in case of difficulty. One quarter of the variance of each preparedness dimension was explained by self-efficacy, supervision quality, amount of prior clerkship experience and nature of professional activities. Preparedness contributed to predicting perceived stress. Conclusions The applied three-dimensional concept of preparedness and the task-specific approach provided a detailed and meaningful view on medical students’ workplace participation and experiences in early clerkships

Comparison of active treatments for impaired glucose regulation : a Salford Royal Foundation Trust and Hitachi collaboration (CATFISH): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is highly prevalent and contributes to significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Behaviour change interventions that target health and lifestyle factors associated with the onset of diabetes can delay progression to diabetes, but many approaches rely on intensive one-to-one contact by specialists. Health coaching is an approach based on motivational interviewing that can potentially deliver behaviour change interventions by non-specialists at a larger scale. This trial protocol describes a randomized controlled trial (CATFISH) that tests whether a web-enhanced telephone health coaching intervention (IGR3) is more acceptable and efficient than a telephone-only health coaching intervention (IGR2) for people with prediabetes (impaired glucose regulation). METHODS: CATFISH is a two-parallel group, single-centre individually randomized controlled trial. Eligible participants are patients aged ≥18 years with impaired glucose regulation (HbA1c concentration between 42 and 47 mmol/mol), have access to a telephone and home internet and have been referred to an existing telephone health coaching service at Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust, Salford, UK. Participants who give written informed consent will be randomized remotely (via a clinical trials unit) to either the existing pathway (IGR2) or the new web-enhanced pathway (IGR3) for 9 months. The primary outcome measure is patient acceptability at 9 months, determined using the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire. Secondary outcome measures at 9 months are: cost of delivery of IGR2 and IGR3, mental health, quality of life, patient activation, self-management, weight (kg), HbA1c concentration, and body mass index. All outcome measures will be analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis. A qualitative process evaluation will explore the experiences of participants and providers with a focus on understanding usability of interventions, mechanisms of behaviour change, and impact of context on delivery and user acceptability. Qualitative data will be analyzed using Framework. DISCUSSION: The CATFISH trial will provide a pragmatic assessment of whether a web-based information technology platform can enhance acceptability of a telephone health coaching intervention for people with prediabetes. The data will prove critical in understanding the role of web applications to improve engagement with evidence-based approaches to preventing diabetes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16534814 . Registered on 7 February 2016

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy with low dose weekly gemcitabine in stage III non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND: Combined chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the treatment of choice for stage III NSCLC. Gemcitabine (G) is a novel deoxycitidine analogue that has been proven to be a potent radiosensitizer. Twenty-two consecutive patients were treated with concurrent CRT to demonstrate the tolerability and efficacy of low dose G given weekly as radiosensitizer in stage III NSCLC. METHODS: Patients with KPS ≥70, adequate bone marrow reserve, with no prior radiotherapy (RT) and surgery were included. Eighteen patients had received prior induction chemotherapy (CT). G (75 mg/m(2)/week) was infused over 1 hour for 6 weeks. Thoracic RT was given two hours later over 6 weeks at 1.8 Gy/day fractions (total dose of 61.2 Gy). Pulmonary toxicity was evaluated with computed tomography scans in 6 weeks. RESULTS: Median age was 60 years (range, 48–75), median follow-up was 15 months (range, 2–40). Sixty-eight percent of patients were male and median KPS score was 90. Conformal 3D-RT planning was used in 64% of patients. G was given for a median of 5 weeks (range 1–9). Twelve patients (54.6%) received all planned CT. G was stopped because of intolerance in 6 and death in 2 patients. Seven patients (31.8%) had radiation pneumonitis. Twenty patients were evaluated for overall response, 1 patient (4.5%) had clinical CR, 81.8% had PR while 9.5% had SD. Median overall survival (OS) was 14 ± 5 months (95% CI 3–25). One- and 2-year OS rates were 55% and 38%. Sixteen patients died of disease-related events (6 with progression of primary tumor, 8 due to metastatic disease), 2 patients died of other causes. One- and 2-year progression-free survival and local control rates were 56%, 27% and 79%, 51%, respectively. CONCLUSION: G might be used as radiosensitizer for patients with stage III NSCLC who could not receive full doses CT with concurrent RT