The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analysed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.postprin

Flavonoid intake and the risk of age-related cataract in China’s Heilongjiang Province

Background/Objectives: Epidemiological evidence suggests that diets rich in flavonoids may reduce the risk of developing age-related cataract (ARC). Flavonoids are widely distributed in foods of plant origin and the objective of this study was to evaluate retrospectively the association between the intakes of the five flavonoid subclasses and the risk of ARC.  Subjects/Methods: A population-based case-control study (249 cases and 66 controls) was carried out in Heilongjiang province, which is located in the Northeast of China, and where intakes and availability of fresh vegetables and fruits can be limited. Dietary data gathered by food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) were used to calculate flavonoid intake. Adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated by logistic regression.  Results: No linear associations between risk of developing ARC and intakes of total dietary flavonoids, anthocyanidins, flavon-3-ol, flavanone, total flavones or total flavonols were found, but quercetin and isorhamnetin intake was inversely associated with ARC risk (OR 11.78, 95% CI: 1.62-85.84, P<0.05, and OR 6.99, 95% CI:1.12-43.44, P<0.05, quartile 4 vs quartile 1, respectively).  Conclusion: As quercetin is contained in many plant foods and isorhamnetin is only contained in very few foods, we concluded that higher quercetin intake may be an important dietary factor in the reduction of risk of age-related cataract

Intra-amniotic delivery of CFTR-expressing adenovirus does not reverse cystic fibrosis phenotype in inbred CFTR-knockout mice

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website at the link below. Copyright © 2008 The American Society of Gene Therapy.Due to its early onset and severe prognosis, cystic fibrosis (CF) has been suggested as a candidate disease for in utero gene therapy. In 1997, a study was published claiming that to how transient prenatal expression of CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) from an in utero –injected adenovirus vector could achieve permanent reversal of the CF intestinal pathology in adult CF knockout mice, despite the loss of CFTR transgene expression by birth. This would imply that the underlying cause of CF is a prenatal defect for which lifelong cure can be achieved by transient prenatal expression of CFTR. Despite criticism at the time of publication, no independent verification of this contentious finding has been published so far. This is vital for the development of future therapeutic strategies as it may determine whether CF gene therapy should be performed prenatally or postnatally. We therefore reinvestigated this finding with an identical adenoviral vector and a knockout CF mouse line (CftrtmlCam) with a completely inbred genetic background to eliminate any effects due to genetic variation. After delivery of the CFTR-expressing adenovirus to the fetal mouse, both vector DNA and transgenic CFTR expression were detected in treated animals postpartum but statistically no significant difference in survival was observed between the Cftr–/– mice treated with the CFTR-adenovirus and those treated with the control vector.Sport Aiding Medical Research for Kids, the Cystic Fibrosis Trust, and the Katharine Dormandy Trust

Use of sonic tomography to detect and quantify wood decay in living trees.

Premise of the studyField methodology and image analysis protocols using acoustic tomography were developed and evaluated as a tool to estimate the amount of internal decay and damage of living trees, with special attention to tropical rainforest trees with irregular trunk shapes.Methods and resultsLiving trunks of a diversity of tree species in tropical rainforests in the Republic of Panama were scanned using an Argus Electronic PiCUS 3 Sonic Tomograph and evaluated for the amount and patterns of internal decay. A protocol using ImageJ analysis software was used to quantify the proportions of intact and compromised wood. The protocols provide replicable estimates of internal decay and cavities for trees of varying shapes, wood density, and bark thickness.ConclusionsSonic tomography, coupled with image analysis, provides an efficient, noninvasive approach to evaluate decay patterns and structural integrity of even irregularly shaped living trees

Study protocol: can a school gardening intervention improve children's diets?

BACKGROUND: The current academic literature suggests there is a potential for using gardening as a tool to improve children's fruit and vegetable intake. This study is two parallel randomised controlled trials (RCT) devised to evaluate the school gardening programme of the Royal Horticultural Society (RHS) Campaign for School Gardening, to determine if it has an effect on children's fruit and vegetable intake. METHOD/DESIGN: Trial One will consist of 26 schools; these schools will be randomised into two groups, one to receive the intensive intervention as "Partner Schools" and the other to receive the less intensive intervention as "Associate Schools". Trial Two will consist of 32 schools; these schools will be randomised into either the less intensive intervention "Associate Schools" or a comparison group with delayed intervention. Baseline data collection will be collected using a 24-hour food diary (CADET) to collect data on dietary intake and a questionnaire exploring children's knowledge and attitudes towards fruit and vegetables. A process measures questionnaire will be used to assess each school's gardening activities. DISCUSSION: The results from these trials will provide information on the impact of the RHS Campaign for School Gardening on children's fruit and vegetable intake. The evaluation will provide valuable information for designing future research in primary school children's diets and school based interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11396528

Iridium-catalyzed aza-spirocyclization of indole-tethered amides: an interrupted Pictet–Spengler reaction

A mild, reductive spirocyclization of indole-linked amides and lactams for the efficient and selective synthesis of aza-spirocyclic indoline products is described. The catalytic reductive activation of tertiary amides or lactams by Vaska's complex with tetramethyldisiloxane as the terminal reductant allowed iminium ion formation, before a diastereoselective 5-endo-trig spirocyclization of the tethered indole moiety was triggered. Terminal reduction affords the aza-spiroindoline products in an overall highly chemoselective and diastereoselective one-pot process

Hearing the voices of older adult patients: processes and findings to inform health services research

Background Clinical academic research and service improvement is planned using Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) but older PPIE participants are consulted less often due to the perception that they are vulnerable or hard to engage. Objectives To consult frail older adults about a recently adopted service, discharge to assess (D2A), and to prioritise services improvements and research topics associated with the design and delivery of discharge from hospital. To use successive PPIE processes to enable a permanent PPIE panel to be established. Participants Following guidance from an established hospital PPI panel 27 older adult participants were recruited. Participants from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) communities, affluent and non-affluent areas and varied social circumstances were included. Methods Focus groups and individual interviews were conducted in participants own homes or nearby social venues. Results Priorities for discharge included remaining independent despite often feeling lonely at home; to remain in hospital if needed; and for services to ensure effective communication with families. The main research priority identified was facilitating independence, whilst establishing a permanent PPIE panel involving older adults was viewed favourably. Conclusions Taking a structured approach to PPIE enabled varied older peoples’ voices to express their priorities and concerns into early discharge from hospital, as well as enabling the development of health services research into hospital discharge planning and management. Older people as participants identified research priorities after reflecting on their experiences. Listening and reflection enabled researchers to develop a new “Community PPIE Elders Panel” to create an enduring PPIE infrastructure for frail older housebound people to engage in research design, development and dissemination

Aptamer-based multiplexed proteomic technology for biomarker discovery

Interrogation of the human proteome in a highly multiplexed and efficient manner remains a coveted and challenging goal in biology. We present a new aptamer-based proteomic technology for biomarker discovery capable of simultaneously measuring thousands of proteins from small sample volumes (15 [mu]L of serum or plasma). Our current assay allows us to measure ~800 proteins with very low limits of detection (1 pM average), 7 logs of overall dynamic range, and 5% average coefficient of variation. This technology is enabled by a new generation of aptamers that contain chemically modified nucleotides, which greatly expand the physicochemical diversity of the large randomized nucleic acid libraries from which the aptamers are selected. Proteins in complex matrices such as plasma are measured with a process that transforms a signature of protein concentrations into a corresponding DNA aptamer concentration signature, which is then quantified with a DNA microarray. In essence, our assay takes advantage of the dual nature of aptamers as both folded binding entities with defined shapes and unique sequences recognizable by specific hybridization probes. To demonstrate the utility of our proteomics biomarker discovery technology, we applied it to a clinical study of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We identified two well known CKD biomarkers as well as an additional 58 potential CKD biomarkers. These results demonstrate the potential utility of our technology to discover unique protein signatures characteristic of various disease states. More generally, we describe a versatile and powerful tool that allows large-scale comparison of proteome profiles among discrete populations. This unbiased and highly multiplexed search engine will enable the discovery of novel biomarkers in a manner that is unencumbered by our incomplete knowledge of biology, thereby helping to advance the next generation of evidence-based medicine

X-Ray Spectroscopy of Stars

(abridged) Non-degenerate stars of essentially all spectral classes are soft X-ray sources. Low-mass stars on the cooler part of the main sequence and their pre-main sequence predecessors define the dominant stellar population in the galaxy by number. Their X-ray spectra are reminiscent, in the broadest sense, of X-ray spectra from the solar corona. X-ray emission from cool stars is indeed ascribed to magnetically trapped hot gas analogous to the solar coronal plasma. Coronal structure, its thermal stratification and geometric extent can be interpreted based on various spectral diagnostics. New features have been identified in pre-main sequence stars; some of these may be related to accretion shocks on the stellar surface, fluorescence on circumstellar disks due to X-ray irradiation, or shock heating in stellar outflows. Massive, hot stars clearly dominate the interaction with the galactic interstellar medium: they are the main sources of ionizing radiation, mechanical energy and chemical enrichment in galaxies. High-energy emission permits to probe some of the most important processes at work in these stars, and put constraints on their most peculiar feature: the stellar wind. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of cool and hot stars through the study of X-ray spectra, in particular high-resolution spectra now available from XMM-Newton and Chandra. We address issues related to coronal structure, flares, the composition of coronal plasma, X-ray production in accretion streams and outflows, X-rays from single OB-type stars, massive binaries, magnetic hot objects and evolved WR stars.Comment: accepted for Astron. Astrophys. Rev., 98 journal pages, 30 figures (partly multiple); some corrections made after proof stag