Estimating Infection Risks and the Global Burden of Diarrheal Disease Attributable to Intermittent Water Supply Using QMRA.

: Intermittent water supply (IWS) is prevalent throughout low and middle-income countries. IWS is associated with increased microbial contamination and potentially elevated risk of waterborne illness. We used existing data sets to estimate the population exposed to IWS, assess the probability of infection using quantitative microbial risk assessment, and calculate the subsequent burden of diarrheal disease attributable to consuming fecally contaminated tap water from an IWS. We used reference pathogens Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and rotavirus as conservative risk proxies for infections via bacteria, protozoa, and viruses, respectively. Results indicate that the median daily risk of infection is an estimated 1 in 23 500 for Campylobacter, 1 in 5 050 000 for Cryptosporidium, and 1 in 118 000 for rotavirus. Based on these risks, IWS may account for 17.2 million infections causing 4.52 million cases of diarrhea, 109 000 diarrheal DALYs, and 1560 deaths each year. The burden of diarrheal disease associated with IWS likely exceeds the WHO health-based normative guideline for drinking water of 10-6 DALYs per person per year. Our results underscore the importance water safety management in water supplies and the potential benefits of point-of-use treatment to mitigate risks.<br/

A framework for monitoring the safety of water services: from measurements to security

The sustainable developments goals (SDGs) introduced monitoring of drinking water quality to the international development agenda. At present, Escherichia coli are the primary measure by which we evaluate the safety of drinking water from an infectious disease perspective. Here, we propose and apply a framework to reflect on the purposes of and approaches to monitoring drinking water safety. To deliver SDG 6.1, universal access to safe drinking water, a new approach to monitoring is needed. At present, we rely heavily on single measures of E. coli contamination to meet a normative definition of safety. Achieving and sustaining universal access to safe drinking water will require monitoring that can inform decision making on whether services are managed to ensure safety and security of access

Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need for more rapid and routine application of modeling approaches such as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for protecting public health. QMRA is a transdisciplinary science dedicated to understanding, predicting, and mitigating infectious disease risks. To better equip QMRA researchers to inform policy and public health management, an Advances in Research for QMRA workshop was held to synthesize a path forward for QMRA research. We summarize insights from 41 QMRA researchers and experts to clarify the role of QMRA in risk analysis by (1) identifying key research needs, (2) highlighting emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describing data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key identified research priorities included using molecular tools in QMRA, advancing dose-response methodology, addressing needed exposure assessments, harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA, unifying a divide between disease transmission and QMRA models, calibrating and/or validating QMRA models, modeling co-exposures and mixtures, and standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout the source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: develop a community of research and practice, integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, increase QMRA translation and impacts, build communication strategies, and encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies

Microbial study of household hygiene conditions and associated Listeria monocytogenes infection risks for Peruvian women

Objectives To develop an exposure and risk assessment model to estimate listeriosis infection risks for Peruvian women. Methods A simulation model was developed utilising Listeria monocytogenes concentrations on kitchen and latrine surfaces in Peruvian homes, hand trace data from Peruvian women and behavioural data from literature. Scenarios involving varying proportions of uncontaminated, or 'clean', surfaces and non-porous surfaces were simulated. Infection risks were estimated for 4, 6 and 8 h of behaviours and interactions with surfaces. Results Although infection risks were estimated across scenarios for various time points (e.g. 4, 6, 8 h), overall mean estimated infection risks for all scenarios were >= 0.31. Infection risks increased as the proportions of clean surfaces decreased. Hand-to-general surface contacts accounted for the most cumulative change in L. monocytogenes concentration on hands. Conclusions In addition to gaining insights on how human behaviours affect exposure and infection risk, this model addressed uncertainties regarding the influence of household surface contamination levels. Understanding the influence of surface contamination in preventing pathogen transmission in households could help to develop intervention strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes infection and associated health risks.Clorox Company12 month embargo; published online: 7 May 2019This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]