Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination: Comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models

Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research

Spallation Residues in the Reaction 56Fe + p at 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0 and 1.5 A GeV

The spallation residues produced in the bombardment of 56}Fe at 1.5, 1.0, 0.75, 0.5 and 0.3 A GeV on a liquid-hydrogen target have been measured using the reverse kinematics technique and the Fragment Separator at GSI (Darmstadt). This technique has permitted the full identification in charge and mass of all isotopes produced with cross-sections larger than 10^{-2} mb down to Z=8. Their individual production cross-sections and recoil velocities at the five energies are presented. Production cross-sections are compared to previously existing data and to empirical parametric formulas, often used in cosmic-ray astrophysics. The experimental data are also extensively compared to different combinations of intra-nuclear cascade and de-excitation models. It is shown that the yields of the lightest isotopes cannot be accounted for by standard evaporation models. The GEMINI model, which includes an asymmetric fission decay mode, gives an overall good agreement with the data. These experimental data can be directly used for the estimation of composition modifications and damages in materials containing iron in spallation sources. They are also useful for improving high precision cosmic-ray measurements.Comment: Submited to Phys. Rev. C (10/2006

Green Plants in the Red: A Baseline Global Assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants

Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question ‘How threatened are plants?’ is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world’s plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed

Evaluating the impact of an intervention to increase uptake of modern contraceptives among adolescent girls (15-19 years) in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Tanzania: the Adolescents 360 quasi-experimental study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria, Ethiopia and Tanzania have some of the highest teenage pregnancy rates and lowest rates of modern contraceptive use among adolescents. The transdisciplinary Adolescents 360 (A360) initiative being rolled out across these three countries uses human-centred design to create context-specific multicomponent interventions with the aim of increasing voluntary modern contraceptive use among girls aged 15-19 years. METHODS: The primary objective of the outcome evaluation is to assess the impact of A360 on the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) among sexually active girls aged 15-19 years. A360 targets different subpopulations of adolescent girls in the three countries. In Northern Nigeria and Ethiopia, the study population is married girls aged 15-19 years. In Southern Nigeria, the study population is unmarried girls aged 15-19 years. In Tanzania, both married and unmarried girls aged 15-19 years will be included in the study. In all settings, we will use a prepopulation and postpopulation-based cross-sectional survey design. In Nigeria, the study design will also include a comparison group. A one-stage sampling design will be used in Nigeria and Ethiopia. A two-stage sampling design will be used in Tanzania. Questionnaires will be administered face-to-face by female interviewers aged between 18 and 26 years. Study outcomes will be assessed before the start of A360 implementation in late 2017 and approximately 24 months after implementation in late 2019. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Findings of this study will be widely disseminated through workshops, conference presentations, reports, briefings, factsheets and academic publications

CEM03 and LAQGSM03 - new modeling tools for nuclear applications

An improved version of the Cascade-Exciton Model (CEM) of nuclear reactions realized in the code CEM2k and the Los Alamos version of the Quark-Gluon String Model (LAQGSM) have been developed recently at LANL to describe reactions induced by particles and nuclei for a number of applications. Our CEM2k and LAQGSM merged with the GEM2 evaporation/fission code by Furihata have predictive powers comparable to other modern codes and describe many reactions better than other codes; therefore both our codes can be used as reliable event generators in transport codes for applications. During the last year, we have made a significant improvements to the intranuclear cascade parts of CEM2k and LAQGSM, and have extended LAQGSM to describe photonuclear reactions at energies to 10 GeV and higher. We have produced in this way improved versions of our codes, CEM03.01 and LAQGSM03.01. We present a brief description of our codes and show illustrative results obtained with CEM03.01 and LAQGSM03.01 for different reactions compared with predictions by other models, as well as examples of using our codes as modeling tools for nuclear applications.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, to be published in Journal of Physics: Conference Series: Proc. Europhysics Conf. on New Trends in Nuclear Physics Applications and Technologies (NPDC19), Pavia, Italy, September 5-9, 200

Modeling the rock band and audience interaction

INTRODUCTION With increasing enthusiasm of bar patrons in the United States, researchers need a general framework to classify components of interaction to study musicians as performers in typical bar settings. A model can be applied to musicians of various types, by size of unit, and style and character of music performed. Style is classed by the musician's repertoire, such as country, folk and rock, or combined categories like foIk-rock and country-rock. The type of music group in this study is the 3-member rock band. The decision to use small rock bands is from the first au thor's association with such bands as a performing member for 9 years, in amateur, semi-pro and professional settings. The second author suggested the sociological application, based on participant observation

Search for heavy neutrinos mixing with tau neutrinos

We report on a search for heavy neutrinos (\nus) produced in the decay D_s\to \tau \nus at the SPS proton target followed by the decay \nudecay in the NOMAD detector. Both decays are expected to occur if \nus is a component of $\nu_{\tau}$.\ From the analysis of the data collected during the 1996-1998 runs with $4.1\times10^{19}$ protons on target, a single candidate event consistent with background expectations was found. This allows to derive an upper limit on the mixing strength between the heavy neutrino and the tau neutrino in the \nus mass range from 10 to 190 $\rm MeV$. Windows between the SN1987a and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis lower limits and our result are still open for future experimental searches. The results obtained are used to constrain an interpretation of the time anomaly observed in the KARMEN1 detector.\Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, a few comments adde

Efficacy of Crown (carbathiin and thiabendazole) to control seed borne Ascochyta blight on kabuli chickpea

Non-Peer ReviewedAscochyta blight (Ascochyta rabiei) of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is an economically important disease transmitted through the seed and stubble. In 2000, approximately 25% of the chickpea acreage in Saskatchewan was lost as a result of ascochyta blight (Pearsy, 2000). Partial resistance in ‘Sanford’, ‘Dwelley’, ‘Myles’, and ‘B90’ chickpea cultivars becomes less effective as the plant matures. The sexual stage (Didymella rabiei) has been found on chickpea residues in some regions of Saskatchewan (Chongo et al., 2000). Ascochyta infection from seed-borne inoculum occurs as scattered patches across the field and the disease spread from these patches. When infected seeds are sown, the fungus infects the seedling as it emerges and continue to sporulates on the plant until it eventually infects neighbouring plants. This disease may cause serious damage to a chickpea crop under cool and wet growing conditions, particularly at flowering and pod setting (Nene, 1984). Infected seed is presumed responsible for the introduction of the pathogen into new areas (Kaiser and Hannan, 1988). This study was conducted to determine efficacy of Crown (Carbathiin 92 g L-1 and Thiabendazole 58 g L-1) to control seed borne ascochyta blight on Kabuli chickpea

Cross-sections for nuclide production in 56Fe target irradiated by 300, 500,750, 1000, 1500, and 2600 MeV protons compared with data on hydrogen target irradiation by 300, 500, 750, 1000, and 1500 MeV/nucleon 56Fe ions

Cross-sections for radioactive nuclide production in 56Fe(p,x) reactions at 300, 500, 750, 1000, 1500, and 2600 MeV were measured using the ITEP U-10 proton accelerator. In total, 221 independent and cumulative yields of products of half-lives from 6.6 min to 312 days have been obtained via the direct-spectrometry method. The measured data have been compared with the experimental data obtained elsewhere by the direct and inverse kinematics methods and with calculations by 15 codes, namely: MCNPX (INCL, CEM2k, BERTINI, ISABEL), LAHET (BERTINI, ISABEL), CEM03 (.01, .G1, .S1), LAQGSM03 (.01, .G1, >.S1), CASCADE-2004, LAHETO, and BRIEFF. Most of our data are in a good agreement with the inverse kinematics results and disprove the results of some earlier activation measurements that were quite different from the inverse kinematics measurements. The most significant calculation-to-experiment differences are observed in the yields of the A<30 light nuclei, indicating that further improvements in nuclear reaction models are needed, and pointing out as well to a necessity of more complete measurements of such reactions.Comment: 53 pages, 9 figures, 6 tables, only pdf file, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Building light nuclei from neutrons, protons, and pions

In these lectures I first explain, in a rather basic fashion, the construction of effective field theories. I then discuss some recent developments in the application of such theories to two- and three-nucleon systems.Comment: 54 pages, uses czjphys.cls. Lectures given at 14th Summer School "Understanding the Structure of Hadrons", Prague, July 2001. To appear in Czechoslovak Journal of Physic