Criteria of efficiency for conformal prediction

We study optimal conformity measures for various criteria of efficiency of classification in an idealised setting. This leads to an important class of criteria of efficiency that we call probabilistic; it turns out that the most standard criteria of efficiency used in literature on conformal prediction are not probabilistic unless the problem of classification is binary. We consider both unconditional and label-conditional conformal prediction.Comment: 31 page

A substitution effect between price clustering and size clustering in credit default swaps

In a perfectly liquid market, investors’ optimal allocation decisions refer to maximizing all three dimensions of liquidity, namely immediacy, width and depth. To the extent that investors fail to accommodate size (depth) along with price (width) in their optimal allocation decisions, their overall costs may increase. This paper focuses on the substitution of width and depth by investigating the simultaneous determination of price clustering and size clustering in the credit default swap (CDS) market. We report strong evidence that when traders round prices they tend to quote more refined sizes, and vice versa. The findings highlight a clear trade-off between price clustering and notional amount in the CDS market, and contribute to the emerging literature on size clustering

Breaking into the blackbox: Trend following, stop losses and the frequency of trading - The case of the S&P500

In this article, we compare a variety of technical trading rules in the context of investing in the S&P500 index. These rules are increasingly popular, both among retail investors and CTAs and similar investment funds. We find that a range of fairly simple rules, including the popular 200-day moving average (MA) trading rule, dominate the long-only, passive investment in the index. In particular, using the latter rule we find that popular stop-loss rules do not add value and that monthly end-of-month investment decision rules are superior to those which trade more frequently: this adds to the growing view that trading can damage your wealth. Finally, we compare the MA rule with a variety of simple fundamental metrics and find the latter far inferior to the technical rules over the last 60 years of investing

An Immunoassay for Dibutyl Phthalate Based on Direct Hapten Linkage to the Polystyrene Surface of Microtiter Plates

BACKGROUND: Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) is predominantly used as a plasticizer inplastics to make them flexible. Extensive use of phthalates in both industrial processes and other consumer products has resulted in the ubiquitous presence of phthalates in the environment. In order to better determine the level of pollution in the environment and evaluate the potential adverse effects of exposure to DBP, immunoassay for DBP was developed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A monoclonal antibody specific to DBP was produced from a stable hybridoma cell line generated by lymphocyte hybridoma technique. An indirect competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (icELISA) employing direct coating of hapten on polystyrene microtiter plates was established for the detection of DBP. Polystyrene surface was first oxidized by permanganate in dilute sulfuric acid to generate carboxyl groups. Then dibutyl 4-aminophthalate, which is an analogue of DBP, was covalently linked to the carboxyl groups of polystyrene surface with 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl) carbodiimide hydrochloride (EDC). Compared with conjugate coated format (IC(50)=106 ng/mL), the direct hapten coated format (IC(50)=14.6 ng/mL) improved assay sensitivity after careful optimization of assay conditions. The average recovery of DBP from spiked water sample was 104.4% and the average coefficient of variation was 9.95%. Good agreement of the results obtained by the hapten coated icELISA and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry further confirmed the reliability and accuracy of the icELISA for the detection of DBP in certain plastic and cosmetic samples. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The stable and efficient hybridoma cell line obtained is an unlimited source of sensitive and specific antibody to DBP. The hapten coated format is proposed as generally applicable because the carboxyl groups on modified microtiter plate surface enables stable immobilization of aminated or hydroxylated hapten with EDC. The developed hapten coated icELISA can be used as a convenient quantitative tool for the sensitive and accurate monitoring DBP in water, plastic and cosmetic samples

Tear fluid biomarkers in ocular and systemic disease: potential use for predictive, preventive and personalised medicine

In the field of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine, researchers are keen to identify novel and reliable ways to predict and diagnose disease, as well as to monitor patient response to therapeutic agents. In the last decade alone, the sensitivity of profiling technologies has undergone huge improvements in detection sensitivity, thus allowing quantification of minute samples, for example body fluids that were previously difficult to assay. As a consequence, there has been a huge increase in tear fluid investigation, predominantly in the field of ocular surface disease. As tears are a more accessible and less complex body fluid (than serum or plasma) and sampling is much less invasive, research is starting to focus on how disease processes affect the proteomic, lipidomic and metabolomic composition of the tear film. By determining compositional changes to tear profiles, crucial pathways in disease progression may be identified, allowing for more predictive and personalised therapy of the individual. This article will provide an overview of the various putative tear fluid biomarkers that have been identified to date, ranging from ocular surface disease and retinopathies to cancer and multiple sclerosis. Putative tear fluid biomarkers of ocular disorders, as well as the more recent field of systemic disease biomarkers, will be shown

Synthesis and Characterization of Rutile TiO2Nanopowders Doped with Iron Ions

Titanium dioxide nanopowders doped with different amounts of Fe ions were prepared by coprecipitation method. Obtained materials were characterized by structural (XRD), morphological (TEM and SEM), optical (UV/vis reflection and photoluminescence, and Raman), and analytical techniques (XPS and ICP-OES). XRD analysis revealed rutile crystalline phase for doped and undoped titanium dioxide obtained in the same manner. Diameter of the particles was 5–7 nm. The presence of iron ions was confirmed by XPS and ICP-OES. Doping process moved absorption threshold of TiO2into visible spectrum range. Photocatalytic activity was also checked. Doped nanopowders showed normal and up-converted photoluminescence

Genomic Binding Profiling of the Fission Yeast Stress-Activated MAPK Sty1 and the bZIP Transcriptional Activator Atf1 in Response to H2O2

10.1371/journal.pone.0011620PLoS ONE57

Measurement of the top quark mass using the matrix element technique in dilepton final states

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in pp¯ collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data were collected by the D0 experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9.7  fb−1. The matrix element technique is applied to tt¯ events in the final state containing leptons (electrons or muons) with high transverse momenta and at least two jets. The calibration of the jet energy scale determined in the lepton+jets final state of tt¯ decays is applied to jet energies. This correction provides a substantial reduction in systematic uncertainties. We obtain a top quark mass of mt=173.93±1.84  GeV