Evolutionary Game Theory and Social Learning Can Determine How Vaccine Scares Unfold

Immunization programs have often been impeded by vaccine scares, as evidenced by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) autism vaccine scare in Britain. A “free rider” effect may be partly responsible: vaccine-generated herd immunity can reduce disease incidence to such low levels that real or imagined vaccine risks appear large in comparison, causing individuals to cease vaccinating. This implies a feedback loop between disease prevalence and strategic individual vaccinating behavior. Here, we analyze a model based on evolutionary game theory that captures this feedback in the context of vaccine scares, and that also includes social learning. Vaccine risk perception evolves over time according to an exogenously imposed curve. We test the model against vaccine coverage data and disease incidence data from two vaccine scares in England & Wales: the whole cell pertussis vaccine scare and the MMR vaccine scare. The model fits vaccine coverage data from both vaccine scares relatively well. Moreover, the model can explain the vaccine coverage data more parsimoniously than most competing models without social learning and/or feedback (hence, adding social learning and feedback to a vaccine scare model improves model fit with little or no parsimony penalty). Under some circumstances, the model can predict future vaccine coverage and disease incidence—up to 10 years in advance in the case of pertussis—including specific qualitative features of the dynamics, such as future incidence peaks and undulations in vaccine coverage due to the population's response to changing disease incidence. Vaccine scares could become more common as eradication goals are approached for more vaccine-preventable diseases. Such models could help us predict how vaccine scares might unfold and assist mitigation efforts

Planetary Dynamics and Habitable Planet Formation In Binary Star Systems

Whether binaries can harbor potentially habitable planets depends on several factors including the physical properties and the orbital characteristics of the binary system. While the former determines the location of the habitable zone (HZ), the latter affects the dynamics of the material from which terrestrial planets are formed (i.e., planetesimals and planetary embryos), and drives the final architecture of the planets assembly. In order for a habitable planet to form in a binary star system, these two factors have to work in harmony. That is, the orbital dynamics of the two stars and their interactions with the planet-forming material have to allow terrestrial planet formation in the habitable zone, and ensure that the orbit of a potentially habitable planet will be stable for long times. We have organized this chapter with the same order in mind. We begin by presenting a general discussion on the motion of planets in binary stars and their stability. We then discuss the stability of terrestrial planets, and the formation of potentially habitable planets in a binary-planetary system.Comment: 56 pages, 29 figures, chapter to appear in the book: Planets in Binary Star Systems (Ed. N. Haghighipour, Springer publishing company

DNA Methylation of the First Exon Is Tightly Linked to Transcriptional Silencing

Tissue specific patterns of methylated cytosine residues vary with age, can be altered by environmental factors, and are often abnormal in human disease yet the cellular consequences of DNA methylation are incompletely understood. Although the bodies of highly expressed genes are often extensively methylated in plants, the relationship between intragenic methylation and expression is less clear in mammalian cells. We performed genome-wide analyses of DNA methylation and gene expression to determine how the pattern of intragenic methylation correlates with transcription and to assess the relationship between methylation of exonic and intronic portions of the gene body. We found that dense exonic methylation is far more common than previously recognized or expected statistically, yet first exons are relatively spared compared to more downstream exons and introns. Dense methylation surrounding the transcription start site (TSS) is uncoupled from methylation within more downstream regions suggesting that there are at least two classes of intragenic methylation. Whereas methylation surrounding the TSS is tightly linked to transcriptional silencing, methylation of more downstream regions is unassociated with the magnitude of gene expression. Notably, we found that DNA methylation downstream of the TSS, in the region of the first exon, is much more tightly linked to transcriptional silencing than is methylation in the upstream promoter region. These data provide direct evidence that DNA methylation is interpreted dissimilarly in different regions of the gene body and suggest that first exon methylation blocks transcript initiation, or vice versa. Our data also show that once initiated, downstream methylation is not a significant impediment to polymerase extension. Thus, the consequences of most intragenic DNA methylation must extend beyond the modulation of transcription magnitude

Detection of Gamma-Ray Emission from the Starburst Galaxies M82 and NGC 253 with the Large Area Telescope on Fermi

We report the detection of high-energy gamma-ray emission from two starburst galaxies using data obtained with the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Steady point-like emission above 200 MeV has been detected at significance levels of 6.8 sigma and 4.8 sigma respectively, from sources positionally coincident with locations of the starburst galaxies M82 and NGC 253. The total fluxes of the sources are consistent with gamma-ray emission originating from the interaction of cosmic rays with local interstellar gas and radiation fields and constitute evidence for a link between massive star formation and gamma-ray emission in star-forming galaxies.Comment: Submitted to ApJ Letter

Fermi Gamma-ray Imaging of a Radio Galaxy

The Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope has detected the gamma-ray glow emanating from the giant radio lobes of the radio galaxy Centaurus A. The resolved gamma-ray image shows the lobes clearly separated from the central active source. In contrast to all other active galaxies detected so far in high-energy gamma-rays, the lobe flux constitutes a considerable portion (>1/2) of the total source emission. The gamma-ray emission from the lobes is interpreted as inverse Compton scattered relic radiation from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), with additional contribution at higher energies from the infrared-to-optical extragalactic background light (EBL). These measurements provide gamma-ray constraints on the magnetic field and particle energy content in radio galaxy lobes, and a promising method to probe the cosmic relic photon fields.Comment: 27 pages, includes Supplementary Online Material; corresponding authors: C.C. Cheung, Y. Fukazawa, J. Knodlseder, L. Stawar

A change in the optical polarization associated with a gamma-ray flare in the blazar 3C 279

It is widely accepted that strong and variable radiation detected over all accessible energy bands in a number of active galaxies arises from a relativistic, Doppler-boosted jet pointing close to our line of sight. The size of the emitting zone and the location of this region relative to the central supermassive black hole are, however, poorly known, with estimates ranging from light-hours to a light-year or more. Here we report the coincidence of a gamma-ray flare with a dramatic change of optical polarization angle. This provides evidence for co-spatiality of optical and gamma-ray emission regions and indicates a highly ordered jet magnetic field. The results also require a non-axisymmetric structure of the emission zone, implying a curved trajectory for the emitting material within the jet, with the dissipation region located at a considerable distance from the black hole, at about 10^5 gravitational radii.Comment: Published in Nature issued on 18 February 2010. Corresponding authors: Masaaki Hayashida and Greg Madejsk

Fermi Large Area Telescope observations of PSR J1836+5925

The discovery of the gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1836+5925, powering the formerly unidentified EGRET source 3EG J1835+5918, was one of the early accomplishments of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Sitting 25 degrees off the Galactic plane, PSR J1836+5925 is a 173 ms pulsar with a characteristic age of 1.8 million years, a spindown luminosity of 1.1$\times10^{34}$ erg s$^{-1}$, and a large off-peak emission component, making it quite unusual among the known gamma-ray pulsar population. We present an analysis of one year of LAT data, including an updated timing solution, detailed spectral results and a long-term light curve showing no indication of variability. No evidence for a surrounding pulsar wind nebula is seen and the spectral characteristics of the off-peak emission indicate it is likely magnetospheric. Analysis of recent XMM observations of the X-ray counterpart yields a detailed characterization of its spectrum, which, like Geminga, is consistent with that of a neutron star showing evidence for both magnetospheric and thermal emission.Comment: Accepted to Astrophysical Journa

Ecological Niche Dimensionality and the Evolutionary Diversification of Stick Insects

The degree of phenotypic divergence and reproductive isolation between taxon pairs can vary quantitatively, and often increases as evolutionary divergence proceeds through various stages, from polymorphism to population differentiation, ecotype and race formation, speciation, and post-speciational divergence. Although divergent natural selection promotes divergence, it does not always result in strong differentiation. For example, divergent selection can fail to complete speciation, and distinct species pairs sometimes collapse (‘speciation in reverse’). Widely-discussed explanations for this variability concern genetic architecture, and the geographic arrangement of populations. A less-explored possibility is that the degree of phenotypic and reproductive divergence between taxon pairs is positively related to the number of ecological niche dimensions (i.e., traits) subject to divergent selection. Some data supporting this idea stem from laboratory experimental evolution studies using Drosophila, but tests from nature are lacking. Here we report results from manipulative field experiments in natural populations of herbivorous Timema stick insects that are consistent with this ‘niche dimensionality’ hypothesis. In such insects, divergent selection between host plants might occur for cryptic colouration (camouflage to evade visual predation), physiology (to detoxify plant chemicals), or both of these niche dimensions. We show that divergent selection on the single niche dimension of cryptic colouration can result in ecotype formation and intermediate levels of phenotypic and reproductive divergence between populations feeding on different hosts. However, greater divergence between a species pair involved divergent selection on both niche dimensions. Although further replication of the trends reported here is required, the results suggest that dimensionality of selection may complement genetic and geographic explanations for the degree of diversification in nature

Adaptive Contact Networks Change Effective Disease Infectiousness and Dynamics

Human societies are organized in complex webs that are constantly reshaped by a social dynamic which is influenced by the information individuals have about others. Similarly, epidemic spreading may be affected by local information that makes individuals aware of the health status of their social contacts, allowing them to avoid contact with those infected and to remain in touch with the healthy. Here we study disease dynamics in finite populations in which infection occurs along the links of a dynamical contact network whose reshaping may be biased based on each individual's health status. We adopt some of the most widely used epidemiological models, investigating the impact of the reshaping of the contact network on the disease dynamics. We derive analytical results in the limit where network reshaping occurs much faster than disease spreading and demonstrate numerically that this limit extends to a much wider range of time scales than one might anticipate. Specifically, we show that from a population-level description, disease propagation in a quickly adapting network can be formulated equivalently as disease spreading on a well-mixed population but with a rescaled infectiousness. We find that for all models studied here – SI, SIS and SIR – the effective infectiousness of a disease depends on the population size, the number of infected in the population, and the capacity of healthy individuals to sever contacts with the infected. Importantly, we indicate how the use of available information hinders disease progression, either by reducing the average time required to eradicate a disease (in case recovery is possible), or by increasing the average time needed for a disease to spread to the entire population (in case recovery or immunity is impossible)