Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade, models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books (arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure

Backward bifurcation, equilibrium and stability phenomena in a three-stage extended BRSV epidemic model

In this paper we consider the phenomenon of backward bifurcation in epidemic modelling illustrated by an extended model for Bovine Respiratory Syncytial Virus (BRSV) amongst cattle. In its simplest form, backward bifurcation in epidemic models usually implies the existence of two subcritical endemic equilibria for R 0 < 1, where R 0 is the basic reproductive number, and a unique supercritical endemic equilibrium for R 0 > 1. In our three-stage extended model we find that more complex bifurcation diagrams are possible. The paper starts with a review of some of the previous work on backward bifurcation then describes our three-stage model. We give equilibrium and stability results, and also provide some biological motivation for the model being studied. It is shown that backward bifurcation can occur in the three-stage model for small b, where b is the common per capita birth and death rate. We are able to classify the possible bifurcation diagrams. Some realistic numerical examples are discussed at the end of the paper, both for b small and for larger values of b

Dynamical Mean-Field Theory

The dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) is a widely applicable approximation scheme for the investigation of correlated quantum many-particle systems on a lattice, e.g., electrons in solids and cold atoms in optical lattices. In particular, the combination of the DMFT with conventional methods for the calculation of electronic band structures has led to a powerful numerical approach which allows one to explore the properties of correlated materials. In this introductory article we discuss the foundations of the DMFT, derive the underlying self-consistency equations, and present several applications which have provided important insights into the properties of correlated matter.Comment: Chapter in "Theoretical Methods for Strongly Correlated Systems", edited by A. Avella and F. Mancini, Springer (2011), 31 pages, 5 figure

ProteinSeq: High-Performance Proteomic Analyses by Proximity Ligation and Next Generation Sequencing

Despite intense interest, methods that provide enhanced sensitivity and specificity in parallel measurements of candidate protein biomarkers in numerous samples have been lacking. We present herein a multiplex proximity ligation assay with readout via realtime PCR or DNA sequencing (ProteinSeq). We demonstrate improved sensitivity over conventional sandwich assays for simultaneous analysis of sets of 35 proteins in 5 µl of blood plasma. Importantly, we observe a minimal tendency to increased background with multiplexing, compared to a sandwich assay, suggesting that higher levels of multiplexing are possible. We used ProteinSeq to analyze proteins in plasma samples from cardiovascular disease (CVD) patient cohorts and matched controls. Three proteins, namely P-selectin, Cystatin-B and Kallikrein-6, were identified as putative diagnostic biomarkers for CVD. The latter two have not been previously reported in the literature and their potential roles must be validated in larger patient cohorts. We conclude that ProteinSeq is promising for screening large numbers of proteins and samples while the technology can provide a much-needed platform for validation of diagnostic markers in biobank samples and in clinical use

Posture Does Not Matter! Paw Usage and Grasping Paw Preference in a Small-Bodied Rooting Quadrupedal Mammal

BACKGROUND: Recent results in birds, marsupials, rodents and nonhuman primates suggest that phylogeny and ecological factors such as body size, diet and postural habit of a species influence limb usage and the direction and strength of limb laterality. To examine to which extent these findings can be generalised to small-bodied rooting quadrupedal mammals, we studied trees shrews (Tupaia belangeri). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We established a behavioural test battery for examining paw usage comparable to small-bodied primates and tested 36 Tupaia belangeri. We studied paw usage in a natural foraging situation (simple food grasping task) and measured the influence of varying postural demands (triped, biped, cling, sit) on paw preferences by applying a forced-food grasping task similar to other small-bodied primates. Our findings suggest that rooting tree shrews prefer mouth over paw usage to catch food in a natural foraging situation. Moreover, we demonstrated that despite differences in postural demand, tree shrews show a strong and consistent individual paw preference for grasping across different tasks, but no paw preference at a population level. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Tree shrews showed less paw usage than small-bodied quadrupedal and arboreal primates, but the same paw preference. Our results confirm that individual paw preferences remain constant irrespective of postural demand in some small-bodied quadrupedal non primate and primate mammals which do not require fine motoric control for manipulating food items. Our findings suggest that the lack of paw/hand preference for grasping food at a population level is a universal pattern among those species and that the influence of postural demand on manual lateralisation in quadrupeds may have evolved in large-bodied species specialised in fine manipulations of food items

To hit or not to hit, that is the question -genome-wide structure-based druggability predictions for <i>pseudomonas aeruginosa </i>proteins

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a Gram-negative bacterium known to cause opportunistic infections in immune-compromised or immunosuppressed individuals that often prove fatal. New drugs to combat this organism are therefore sought after. To this end, we subjected the gene products of predicted perturbative genes to structure-based druggability predictions using DrugPred. Making this approach suitable for large-scale predictions required the introduction of new methods for calculation of descriptors, development of a workflow to identify suitable pockets in homologous proteins and establishment of criteria to obtain valid druggability predictions based on homologs. We were able to identify 29 perturbative proteins of P. aeruginosa that may contain druggable pockets, including some of them with no or no drug-like inhibitors deposited in ChEMBL. These proteins form promising novel targets for drug discovery against P. aeruginosa

Cardiac Tissue Engineering: Implications for Pediatric Heart Surgery

Children with severe congenital malformations, such as single-ventricle anomalies, have a daunting prognosis. Heart transplantation would be a therapeutic option but is restricted due to a lack of suitable donor organs and, even in case of successful heart transplantation, lifelong immune suppression would frequently be associated with a number of serious side effects. As an alternative to heart transplantation and classical cardiac reconstructive surgery, tissue-engineered myocardium might become available to augment hypomorphic hearts and/or provide new muscle material for complex myocardial reconstruction. These potential applications of tissue engineered myocardium will, however, impose major challenges to cardiac tissue engineers as well as heart surgeons. This review will provide an overview of available cardiac tissue-engineering technologies, discuss limitations, and speculate on a potential application of tissue-engineered heart muscle in pediatric heart surgery

Adverse effects of extra-articular corticosteroid injections: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To estimate the occurrence and type of adverse effects after application of an extra-articular (soft tissue) corticosteroid injection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic review of the literature was made based on a PubMed and Embase search covering the period 1956 to January 2010. Case reports were included, as were prospective and retrospective studies that reported adverse events of corticosteroid injection. All clinical trials which used extra-articular corticosteroid injections were examined. We divided the reported adverse events into major (defined as those needing intervention or not disappearing) and minor ones (transient, not requiring intervention).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The search yielded 87 relevant studies:44 case reports, 37 prospective studies and 6 retrospective studies. The major adverse events included osteomyelitis and protothecosis; one fatal necrotizing fasciitis; cellulitis and ecchymosis; tendon ruptures; atrophy of the plantar fat was described after injecting a neuroma; and local skin effects appeared as atrophy, hypopigmentation or as skin defect. The minor adverse events effects ranged from skin rash to flushing and disturbed menstrual pattern. Increased pain or steroid flare after injection was reported in 19 studies. After extra-articular injection, the incidence of major adverse events ranged from 0-5.8% and that of minor adverse events from 0-81%. It was not feasible to pool the risk for adverse effects due to heterogeneity of study populations and difference in interventions and variance in reporting.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this literature review it was difficult to accurately quantify the incidence of adverse effects after extra-articular corticosteroid injection. The reported adverse events were relatively mild, although one fatal reaction was reported.</p

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)