Time-Varying Parameters in Continuous and Discrete Time

We consider models for both deterministic one-time and continuous stochastic parameter change in a continuous time autoregressive model around a deterministic trend function. For the latter we focus on the case where the autoregressive parameter itself follows a first-order autoregression. Exact discrete time analogue models are detailed in each case and compared to corresponding parameter change models adopted in the discrete time literature. The relationships between the parameters in the continuous time models and their discrete time analogues are also explored. For the one- time parameter change model the discrete time models used in the literature can be justified by the corresponding continuous time model, with a only a minor modification needed for the (most likely) case where the changepoint does not coincide with one of the discrete time observation points. For the stochastic parameter change model considered we show that the resulting discrete time model is characterised by an autoregressive parameter the logarithm of which follows an ARMA(1,1) process. We discuss how this relates to models which have been proposed in the discrete time stochastic unit root literature. The implications of our results for a number of extant discrete time models and testing procedures are discussed

G6PD deficiency in male individuals infected by Plasmodium vivax malaria in the Brazilian Amazon: a cost study

BACKGROUND: Deficiency of the enzyme G6PD (G6PDd) is caused by mutations in the gene G6PD, which plays an important role in protecting the red blood cell against oxidizing agents; it is linked to chromosome X, and it may affects both sexes. The clinically relevant manifestations, such as acute haemolytic anaemia, mainly occur in men, however. The 8-aminoquinoline primaquine, which is the medication used in the radical treatment of malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax, represents the main factor that triggers complications associated with G6PDd. The current study aims to estimate the costs of G6PDd among male individuals infected by P. vivax in the Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: This is an economic analysis developed within the Brazilian National Health System perspective for the years of 2009, 2010 and 2011. Direct medical and non-medical costs were estimated for G6PDd in the Brazilian Amazon, considering among those suffering from the deficiency the costs of diagnosing infection by P. vivax, its treatment and severe adverse events that require hospitalization and were connected to the use of primaquine. RESULTS: The estimates of the average costs of diagnosing vivax malaria, of its treatment and of severe adverse events after using primaquine among the carriers of G6PDd, over the three evaluated years, corresponded to US$739,410.42; US$ 2,120.04 and US$4,858,108.87, respectively. The results indicate that the average total cost in the study period corresponded to US$ 5,599,639.33, varying in accordance with the sensitivity analysis between US$4,439,512.14 and US$ 6,702,619.24. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that the use of primaquine among men with G6PDd who are infected by P. vivax represents a heavy burden on the public health service of Brazil. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0647-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Competing biosecurity and risk rationalities in the Chittagong poultry commodity chain, Bangladesh

This paper anthropologically explores how key actors in the Chittagong live bird trading network perceive biosecurity and risk in relation to avian influenza between production sites, market maker scenes and outlets. They pay attention to the past and the present, rather than the future, downplaying the need for strict risk management, as outbreaks have not been reported frequently for a number of years. This is analysed as ‘temporalities of risk perception regarding biosecurity’, through Black Swan theory, the idea that unexpected events with major effects are often inappropriately rationalized (Taleb in The Black Swan. The impact of the highly improbable, Random House, New York, 2007). This incorporates a sociocultural perspective on risk, emphasizing the contexts in which risk is understood, lived, embodied and experienced. Their risk calculation is explained in terms of social consent, practical intelligibility and convergence of constraints and motivation. The pragmatic and practical orientation towards risk stands in contrast to how risk is calculated in the avian influenza preparedness paradigm. It is argued that disease risk on the ground has become a normalized part of everyday business, as implied in Black Swan theory. Risk which is calculated retrospectively is unlikely to encourage investment in biosecurity and, thereby, points to the danger of unpredictable outlier events

Double quantum dot with integrated charge sensor based on Ge/Si heterostructure nanowires

Coupled electron spins in semiconductor double quantum dots hold promise as the basis for solid-state qubits. To date, most experiments have used III-V materials, in which coherence is limited by hyperfine interactions. Ge/Si heterostructure nanowires seem ideally suited to overcome this limitation: the predominance of spin-zero nuclei suppresses the hyperfine interaction and chemical synthesis creates a clean and defect-free system with highly controllable properties. Here we present a top gate-defined double quantum dot based on Ge/Si heterostructure nanowires with fully tunable coupling between the dots and to the leads. We also demonstrate a novel approach to charge sensing in a one-dimensional nanostructure by capacitively coupling the double dot to a single dot on an adjacent nanowire. The double quantum dot and integrated charge sensor serve as an essential building block required to form a solid-state spin qubit free of nuclear spin.Comment: Related work at http://marcuslab.harvard.edu and http://cmliris.harvard.ed

You turn me cold: evidence for temperature contagion

Introduction During social interactions, our own physiological responses influence those of others. Synchronization of physiological (and behavioural) responses can facilitate emotional understanding and group coherence through inter-subjectivity. Here we investigate if observing cues indicating a change in another's body temperature results in a corresponding temperature change in the observer. Methods Thirty-six healthy participants (age; 22.9±3.1 yrs) each observed, then rated, eight purpose-made videos (3 min duration) that depicted actors with either their right or left hand in visibly warm (warm videos) or cold water (cold videos). Four control videos with the actors' hand in front of the water were also shown. Temperature of participant observers' right and left hands was concurrently measured using a thermistor within a Wheatstone bridge with a theoretical temperature sensitivity of <0.0001°C. Temperature data were analysed in a repeated measures ANOVA (temperature × actor's hand × observer's hand). Results Participants rated the videos showing hands immersed in cold water as being significantly cooler than hands immersed in warm water, F(1,34) = 256.67, p0.1). There was however no evidence of left-right mirroring of these temperature effects p>0.1). Sensitivity to temperature contagion was also predicted by inter-individual differences in self-report empathy. Conclusions We illustrate physiological contagion of temperature in healthy individuals, suggesting that empathetic understanding for primary low-level physiological challenges (as well as more complex emotions) are grounded in somatic simulation

Superconducting, Insulating, and Anomalous Metallic Regimes in a Gated Two-Dimensional Semiconductor-Superconductor Array

The superconductor-insulator transition in two dimensions has been widely investigated as a paradigmatic quantum phase transition. The topic remains controversial, however, because many experiments exhibit a metallic regime with saturating low-temperature resistance, at odds with conventional theory. Here, we explore this transition in a novel, highly controllable system, a semiconductor heterostructure with epitaxial Al, patterned to form a regular array of superconducting islands connected by a gateable quantum well. Spanning nine orders of magnitude in resistance, the system exhibits regimes of superconducting, metallic, and insulating behavior, along with signatures of flux commensurability and vortex penetration. An in-plane magnetic field eliminates the metallic regime, restoring the direct superconductor-insulator transition, and improves scaling, while strongly altering the scaling exponent

Impact of resonance decays on critical point signals in net-proton fluctuations

The non-monotonic beam energy dependence of the higher cumulants of net-proton fluctuations is a widely studied signature of the conjectured presence of a critical point in the QCD phase diagram. In this work we study the effect of resonance decays on critical fluctuations. We show that resonance effects reduce the signatures of critical fluctuations, but that for reasonable parameter choices critical effects in the net-proton cumulants survive. The relative role of resonance decays has a weak dependence on the order of the cumulants studied with a slightly stronger suppression of critical effects for higher-order cumulants

Adolescent brain maturation and cortical folding: evidence for reductions in gyrification

Evidence from anatomical and functional imaging studies have highlighted major modifications of cortical circuits during adolescence. These include reductions of gray matter (GM), increases in the myelination of cortico-cortical connections and changes in the architecture of large-scale cortical networks. It is currently unclear, however, how the ongoing developmental processes impact upon the folding of the cerebral cortex and how changes in gyrification relate to maturation of GM/WM-volume, thickness and surface area. In the current study, we acquired high-resolution (3 Tesla) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from 79 healthy subjects (34 males and 45 females) between the ages of 12 and 23 years and performed whole brain analysis of cortical folding patterns with the gyrification index (GI). In addition to GI-values, we obtained estimates of cortical thickness, surface area, GM and white matter (WM) volume which permitted correlations with changes in gyrification. Our data show pronounced and widespread reductions in GI-values during adolescence in several cortical regions which include precentral, temporal and frontal areas. Decreases in gyrification overlap only partially with changes in the thickness, volume and surface of GM and were characterized overall by a linear developmental trajectory. Our data suggest that the observed reductions in GI-values represent an additional, important modification of the cerebral cortex during late brain maturation which may be related to cognitive development

Fractional quantum Hall effect in a quantum point contact at filling fraction 5/2

Recent theories suggest that the excitations of certain quantum Hall states may have exotic braiding statistics which could be used to build topological quantum gates. This has prompted an experimental push to study such states using confined geometries where the statistics can be tested. We study the transport properties of quantum point contacts (QPCs) fabricated on a GaAs/AlGaAs two dimensional electron gas that exhibits well-developed fractional quantum Hall effect, including at bulk filling fraction 5/2. We find that a plateau at effective QPC filling factor 5/2 is identifiable in point contacts with lithographic widths of 1.2 microns and 0.8 microns, but not 0.5 microns. We study the temperature and dc-current-bias dependence of the 5/2 plateau in the QPC, as well as neighboring fractional and integer plateaus in the QPC while keeping the bulk at filling factor 3. Transport near QPC filling factor 5/2 is consistent with a picture of chiral Luttinger liquid edge-states with inter-edge tunneling, suggesting that an incompressible state at 5/2 forms in this confined geometry

Counting and effective rigidity in algebra and geometry

The purpose of this article is to produce effective versions of some rigidity results in algebra and geometry. On the geometric side, we focus on the spectrum of primitive geodesic lengths (resp., complex lengths) for arithmetic hyperbolic 2-manifolds (resp., 3-manifolds). By work of Reid, this spectrum determines the commensurability class of the 2-manifold (resp., 3-manifold). We establish effective versions of these rigidity results by ensuring that, for two incommensurable arithmetic manifolds of bounded volume, the length sets (resp., the complex length sets) must disagree for a length that can be explicitly bounded as a function of volume. We also prove an effective version of a similar rigidity result established by the second author with Reid on a surface analog of the length spectrum for hyperbolic 3-manifolds. These effective results have corresponding algebraic analogs involving maximal subfields and quaternion subalgebras of quaternion algebras. To prove these effective rigidity results, we establish results on the asymptotic behavior of certain algebraic and geometric counting functions which are of independent interest.Comment: v.2, 39 pages. To appear in Invent. Mat