Simulation of near-term climate change at target sites in West and East Africa

We describe the generation of synthetic sequences of precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperatures at two locations, in western and eastern Africa respectively. The sequences are generated at the monthly time scale and incorporate both explicitly modelled annual-to-decadal variability, based on the observational record, and long-range (i.e., climate change) trends, as inferred from an ensemble of global climate models. Annual-to-decadal variability is modelled as a first-order vector autoregressive (VAR) process, and the simulations are temporally downscaled to monthly time resolution using a nonparametric resampling scheme. The modelled sequences reproduce well the observed covariances as well as serial autocorrelation in individual variables. The simulations are intended to drive agricultural or other applications models to investigate responses to a range of plausible trends, on which are superimposed decade-scale climate fluctuations whose likelihood of occurrence can be estimated

Results of a novel screening tool measuring dietary sodium knowledge in patients with chronic kidney disease.

BackgroundReducing dietary sodium has potential to benefit patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Little research is available defining dietary sodium knowledge gaps in patients with pre-dialysis CKD. We designed a brief screening tool to rapidly identify patient knowledge gaps related to dietary sodium for patients with CKD not yet on dialysis.MethodsA Short Sodium Knowledge Survey (SSKS) was developed and administered to patients with pre-dialysis CKD. We also asked patients if they received counseling on dietary sodium reduction and about recommended intake limits. We performed logistic regression to examine the association between sodium knowledge and patient characteristics. Characteristics of patients who answered all SSKS questions correctly were compared to those who did not.ResultsOne-hundred fifty-five patients were surveyed. The mean (SD) age was 56.6 (15.1) years, 84 (54%) were men, and 119 (77%) were white. Sixty-seven patients (43.2%) correctly identified their daily intake sodium limit. Fifty-eight (37.4%) were unable to answer all survey questions correctly. In analysis adjusted for age, sex, race, education, health literacy, CKD stage, self-reported hypertension and attendance in a kidney education class, women and patients of non-white race had lower odds of correctly answering survey questions (0.36 [0.16,0.81]; p = 0.01 women versus men and 0.33 [0.14,0.76]; p = 0.01 non-white versus white, respectively).ConclusionsOur survey provides a mechanism to quickly identify dietary sodium knowledge gaps in patients with CKD. Women and patients of non-white race may have knowledge barriers impeding adherence to sodium reduction advice

A framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications

The SimGen software, including ancillary files and scripts, can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/~amg/CCAFS/simgen/Climate prediction on decadal time scales is currently an active area of research. Although there are indications that predictions from dynamical models may have skill in some regions, assessment of this skill is still underway, and reliable model-based predictions of regional ‘near-term’ climate change, particularly for terrestrial regions, have not yet been demonstrated. Given the absence of such forecasts, synthetic data sequences that capture the statistical properties of observed near-term climate variability have potential value. Incorporation of a climate change component in such sequences can aid in estimating likelihoods for a range of climatic stresses, perhaps lying outside the range of past experience. Such simulations can be used to drive agricultural, hydrological or other application models, enabling resilience testing of adaptation or decision systems. The use of statistically-based methods enables the efficient generation of a large ensemble of synthetic sequences as well as the creation of well-defined probabilistic risk estimates. In this report we discuss procedures for the generation of synthetic climate sequences that incorporate both the statistics of observed variability and expectations regarding future regional climate change. Model fitting and simulation are conditioned by requirements particular to the decadal climate problem. A method for downscaling annualized simulations to the daily time step while preserving both spatial and temporal subannual statistical properties is presented and other possible methods discussed. A ‘case-study’ realization of the proposed framework is described

Establishing comprehensive oral assessments for children with safeguarding concerns.

The dental profession is well placed to contribute important information in child protection cases but no previous research has been reported that assesses the volume or impact of this information. Comprehensive oral assessment clinics were introduced and established as an integral part of comprehensive medical assessments for children with welfare concerns in Greater Glasgow and Clyde. An assessment protocol and standardised paperwork for comprehensive oral assessments were developed to enhance information sharing and patient access to appropriate care. Two cases are presented and discussed to demonstrate the value of dental input

Prenatal hypoxia induces increased cardiac contractility on a background of decreased capillary density.

Background: Chronic hypoxia in utero (CHU) is one of the most common insults to fetal development and may be associated with poor cardiac recovery from ischaemia-reperfusion injury,yet the effects on normal cardiac mechanical performance are poorly understood. Methods: Pregnant female wistar rats were exposed to hypoxia (12% oxygen, balance nitrogen)for days 10–20 of pregnancy. Pups were born into normal room air and weaned normally. At 10 weeks of age, hearts were excised under anaesthesia and underwent retrograde 'Langendorff' perfusion. Mechanical performance was measured at constant filling pressure (100 cm H2O) with intraventricular balloon. Left ventricular free wall was dissected away and capillary density estimated following alkaline phosphatase staining. Expression of SERCA2a and Nitric Oxide Synthases (NOS) proteins were estimated by immunoblotting. Results: CHU significantly increased body mass (P < 0.001) compared with age-matched control rats but was without effect on relative cardiac mass. For incremental increases in left ventricular balloon volume, diastolic pressure was preserved. However, systolic pressure was significantly greater following CHU for balloon volume = 50 μl (P < 0.01) and up to 200 μl (P < 0.05). For higher balloon volumes systolic pressure was not significantly different from control. Developed pressures were correspondingly increased relative to controls for balloon volumes up to 250 μl (P < 0.05).Left ventricular free wall capillary density was significantly decreased in both epicardium (18%; P <0.05) and endocardium (11%; P < 0.05) despite preserved coronary flow. Western blot analysis revealed no change to the expression of SERCA2a or nNOS but immuno-detectable eNOS protein was significantly decreased (P < 0.001) in cardiac tissue following chronic hypoxia in utero. Conclusion: These data offer potential mechanisms for poor recovery following ischaemia, including decreased coronary flow reserve and impaired angiogenesis with subsequent detrimental effects of post-natal cardiac performance

Algebras, BPS States, and Strings

We clarify the role played by BPS states in the calculation of threshold corrections of D=4, N=2 heterotic string compactifications. We evaluate these corrections for some classes of compactifications and show that they are sums of logarithmic functions over the positive roots of generalized Kac-Moody algebras. Moreover, a certain limit of the formulae suggests a reformulation of heterotic string in terms of a gauge theory based on hyperbolic algebras such as $E_{10}$. We define a generalized Kac-Moody Lie superalgebra associated to the BPS states. Finally we discuss the relation of our results with string duality.Comment: 64 pages, harvmac (b), Discussion of BRST improved, typos fixed, two references adde

The regulatory subunit of PKA-I remains partially structured and undergoes β-aggregation upon thermal denaturation

Background: The regulatory subunit (R) of cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) is a modular flexible protein that responds with large conformational changes to the binding of the effector cAMP. Considering its highly dynamic nature, the protein is rather stable. We studied the thermal denaturation of full-length RIα and a truncated RIα(92-381) that contains the tandem cyclic nucleotide binding (CNB) domains A and B. Methodology/Principal Findings: As revealed by circular dichroism (CD) and differential scanning calorimetry, both RIα proteins contain significant residual structure in the heat-denatured state. As evidenced by CD, the predominantly α-helical spectrum at 25°C with double negative peaks at 209 and 222 nm changes to a spectrum with a single negative peak at 212-216 nm, characteristic of β-structure. A similar α→β transition occurs at higher temperature in the presence of cAMP. Thioflavin T fluorescence and atomic force microscopy studies support the notion that the structural transition is associated with cross-β-intermolecular aggregation and formation of non-fibrillar oligomers. Conclusions/Significance: Thermal denaturation of RIα leads to partial loss of native packing with exposure of aggregation-prone motifs, such as the B' helices in the phosphate-binding cassettes of both CNB domains. The topology of the β-sandwiches in these domains favors inter-molecular β-aggregation, which is suppressed in the ligand-bound states of RIα under physiological conditions. Moreover, our results reveal that the CNB domains persist as structural cores through heat-denaturation. © 2011 Dao et al

Stress Levels and the Relationship of Positive and Negative Coping Strategies in College Athletes Versus Non-Athletes

A Research Methods Project supervised by Dr. David Stahlman (Fall 2021

Institutions, Human Capital, and Development

In this article, we revisit the relationship among institutions, human capital, and development. We argue that empirical models that treat institutions and human capital as exogenous are misspecified, both because of the usual omitted variable bias problems and because of differential measurement error in these variables, and that this misspecification is at the root of the very large returns of human capital, about four to five times greater than that implied by micro (Mincerian) estimates, found in the previous literature. Using cross-country and cross-regional regressions, we show that when we focus on historically determined differences in human capital and control for the effect of institutions, the impact of institutions on long-run development is robust, whereas the estimates of the effect of human capital are much diminished and become consistent with micro estimates. Using historical and cross-country regression evidence, we also show that there is no support for the view that differences in the human capital endowments of early European colonists have been a major factor in the subsequent institutional development of former colonies.Comisión Nacional de Investigación Ciencia y Tecnología (Chile) (CONICYT/Programa de Investigación Asociativa (project SOC1102))United States. Army Research Office (ARO MURI W911NF-12-1-0509

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined