Predicting functional impairment trajectories in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a probabilistic, multifactorial model of disease progression.

To employ Artificial Intelligence to model, predict and simulate the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progression over time in terms of variable interactions, functional impairments, and survival. We employed demographic and clinical variables, including functional scores and the utilisation of support interventions, of 3940 ALS patients from four Italian and two Israeli registers to develop a new approach based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that models the ALS evolution over time, in two distinct scenarios of variable availability. The method allows to simulate patients' disease trajectories and predict the probability of functional impairment and survival at different time points. DBNs explicitly represent the relationships between the variables and the pathways along which they influence the disease progression. Several notable inter-dependencies were identified and validated by comparison with literature. Moreover, the implemented tool allows the assessment of the effect of different markers on the disease course, reproducing the probabilistically expected clinical progressions. The tool shows high concordance in terms of predicted and real prognosis, assessed as time to functional impairments and survival (integral of the AU-ROC in the first 36 months between 0.80-0.93 and 0.84-0.89 for the two scenarios, respectively). Provided only with measurements commonly collected during the first visit, our models can predict time to the loss of independence in walking, breathing, swallowing, communicating, and survival and it can be used to generate in silico patient cohorts with specific characteristics. Our tool provides a comprehensive framework to support physicians in treatment planning and clinical decision-making. [Abstract copyright: © 2022. The Author(s).

A proposed staging system for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive loss of upper and lower motor neurons, with a median survival of 2–3 years. Although various phenotypic and research diagnostic classification systems exist and several prognostic models have been generated, there is no staging system. Staging criteria for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis would help to provide a universal and objective measure of disease progression with benefits for patient care, resource allocation, research classifications and clinical trial design. We therefore sought to define easily identified clinical milestones that could be shown to occur at specific points in the disease course, reflect disease progression and impact prognosis and treatment. A tertiary referral centre clinical database was analysed, consisting of 1471 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis seen between 1993 and 2007. Milestones were defined as symptom onset (functional involvement by weakness, wasting, spasticity, dysarthria or dysphagia of one central nervous system region defined as bulbar, upper limb, lower limb or diaphragmatic), diagnosis, functional involvement of a second region, functional involvement of a third region, needing gastrostomy and non-invasive ventilation. Milestone timings were standardized as proportions of time elapsed through the disease course using information from patients who had died by dividing time to a milestone by disease duration. Milestones occurred at predictable proportions of the disease course. Diagnosis occurred at 35% through the disease course, involvement of a second region at 38%, a third region at 61%, need for gastrostomy at 77% and need for non-invasive ventilation at 80%. We therefore propose a simple staging system for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Stage 1: symptom onset (involvement of first region); Stage 2A: diagnosis; Stage 2B: involvement of second region; Stage 3: involvement of third region; Stage 4A: need for gastrostomy; and Stage 4B: need for non-invasive ventilation. Validation of this staging system will require further studies in other populations, in population registers and in other clinic databases. The standardized times to milestones may well vary between different studies and populations, although the stages themselves and their meanings are likely to remain unchanged

A polygenic resilience score moderates the genetic risk for schizophrenia.

Based on the discovery by the Resilience Project (Chen R. et al. Nat Biotechnol 34:531–538, 2016) of rare variants that confer resistance to Mendelian disease, and protective alleles for some complex diseases, we posited the existence of genetic variants that promote resilience to highly heritable polygenic disorders1,0 such as schizophrenia. Resilience has been traditionally viewed as a psychological construct, although our use of the term resilience refers to a different construct that directly relates to the Resilience Project, namely: heritable variation that promotes resistance to disease by reducing the penetrance of risk loci, wherein resilience and risk loci operate orthogonal to one another. In this study, we established a procedure to identify unaffected individuals with relatively high polygenic risk for schizophrenia, and contrasted them with risk-matched schizophrenia cases to generate the first known “polygenic resilience score” that represents the additive contributions to SZ resistance by variants that are distinct from risk loci. The resilience score was derived from data compiled by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, and replicated in three independent samples. This work establishes a generalizable framework for finding resilience variants for any complex, heritable disorder

Roadmap for C9ORF72 in Frontotemporal Dementia and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Report on the C9ORF72 FTD/ALS Summit

A summit held March 2023 in Scottsdale, Arizona (USA) focused on the intronic hexanucleotide expansion in the C9ORF72 gene and its relevance in frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS; C9ORF72-FTD/ALS). The goal of this summit was to connect basic scientists, clinical researchers, drug developers, and individuals affected by C9ORF72-FTD/ALS to evaluate how collaborative efforts across the FTD-ALS disease spectrum might break down existing disease silos. Presentations and discussions covered recent discoveries in C9ORF72-FTD/ALS disease mechanisms, availability of disease biomarkers and recent advances in therapeutic development, and clinical trial design for prevention and treatment for individuals affected by C9ORF72-FTD/ALS and asymptomatic pathological expansion carriers. The C9ORF72-associated hexanucleotide repeat expansion is an important locus for both ALS and FTD. C9ORF72-FTD/ALS may be characterized by loss of function of the C9ORF72 protein and toxic gain of functions caused by both dipeptide repeat (DPR) proteins and hexanucleotide repeat RNA. C9ORF72-FTD/ALS therapeutic strategies discussed at the summit included the use of antisense oligonucleotides, adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated gene silencing and gene delivery, and engineered small molecules targeting RNA structures associated with the C9ORF72 expansion. Neurofilament light chain, DPR proteins, and transactive response (TAR) DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43)-associated molecular changes were presented as biomarker candidates. Similarly, brain imaging modalities (i.e., magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] and positron emission tomography [PET]) measuring structural, functional, and metabolic changes were discussed as important tools to monitor individuals affected with C9ORF72-FTD/ALS, at both pre-symptomatic and symptomatic disease stages. Finally, summit attendees evaluated current clinical trial designs available for FTD or ALS patients and concluded that therapeutics relevant to FTD/ALS patients, such as those specifically targeting C9ORF72, may need to be tested with composite endpoints covering clinical symptoms of both FTD and ALS. The latter will require novel clinical trial designs to be inclusive of all patient subgroups spanning the FTD/ALS spectrum

Risk variants and polygenic architecture of disruptive behavior disorders in the context of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a childhood psychiatric disorder often comorbid with disruptive behavior disorders (DBDs). Here, we report a GWAS meta-analysis of ADHD comorbid with DBDs (ADHD + DBDs) including 3802 cases and 31,305 controls. We identify three genome-wide significant loci on chromosomes 1, 7, and 11. A meta-analysis including a Chinese cohort supports that the locus on chromosome 11 is a strong risk locus for ADHD + DBDs across European and Chinese ancestries (rs7118422, P = 3.15×10-10, OR = 1.17). We find a higher SNP heritability for ADHD + DBDs (h2SNP = 0.34) when compared to ADHD without DBDs (h2SNP = 0.20), high genetic correlations between ADHD + DBDs and aggressive (rg = 0.81) and anti-social behaviors (rg = 0.82), and an increased burden (polygenic score) of variants associated with ADHD and aggression in ADHD + DBDs compared to ADHD without DBDs. Our results suggest an increased load of common risk variants in ADHD + DBDs compared to ADHD without DBDs, which in part can be explained by variants associated with aggressive behavior

A permutation test for assessing the presence of individual differences in treatment effects

An important goal of personalized medicine is to identify heterogeneity in treatment effects and then use that heterogeneity to target the intervention to those most likely to benefit. Heterogeneity is assessed using the predicted individual treatment effects framework, and a permutation test is proposed to establish if significant heterogeneity is present given the covariates and predictive model or algorithm used for predicted individual treatment effects. We first show evidence for heterogeneity in the effects of treatment across an illustrative example data set. We then use simulations with two different predictive methods (linear regression model and Random Forests) to show that the permutation test has adequate type-I error control. Next, we use an example dataset as the basis for simulations to demonstrate the ability of the permutation test to find heterogeneity in treatment effects for a predicted individual treatment effects estimate as a function of both effect size and sample size. We find that the proposed test has good power for detecting heterogeneity in treatment effects when the heterogeneity was due primarily to a single predictor, or when it was spread across the predictors. Power was found to be greater for predictions from a linear model than from random forests. This non-parametric permutation test can be used to test for significant differences across individuals in predicted individual treatment effects obtained with a given set of covariates using any predictive method with no additional assumptions

Unexpected similarities between C9ORF72 and sporadic forms of ALS/FTD suggest a common disease mechanism

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) represent two ends of a disease spectrum with shared clinical, genetic and pathological features. These include near ubiquitous pathological inclusions of the RNA-binding protein (RBP) TDP-43, and often the presence of a GGGGCC expansion in the C9ORF72 (C9) gene. Previously, we reported that the sequestration of hnRNP H altered the splicing of target transcripts in C9ALS patients. Here, we show that this signature also occurs in half of 50 postmortem sporadic, non-C9 ALS/FTD brains. Furthermore, and equally surprisingly, these ‘like-C9’ brains also contained correspondingly high amounts of insoluble TDP-43, as well as several other disease-related RBPs, and this correlates with widespread global splicing defects. Finally, we show that the like-C9 sporadic patients, like actual C9ALS patients, were much more likely to have developed FTD. We propose that these unexpected links between C9 and sporadic ALS/FTD define a common mechanism in this disease spectrum

Computers in the Exam Room: Differences in Physician–Patient Interaction May Be Due to Physician Experience

BACKGROUND: The use of electronic medical records can improve the technical quality of care, but requires a computer in the exam room. This could adversely affect interpersonal aspects of care, particularly when physicians are inexperienced users of exam room computers. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether physician experience modifies the impact of exam room computers on the physician–patient interaction. DESIGN: Cross-sectional surveys of patients and physicians. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: One hundred fifty five adults seen for scheduled visits by 11 faculty internists and 12 internal medicine residents in a VA primary care clinic. MEASUREMENTS: Physician and patient assessment of the effect of the computer on the clinical encounter. MAIN RESULTS: Patients seeing residents, compared to those seeing faculty, were more likely to agree that the computer adversely affected the amount of time the physician spent talking to (34% vs 15%, P = 0.01), looking at (45% vs 24%, P = 0.02), and examining them (32% vs 13%, P = 0.009). Moreover, they were more likely to agree that the computer made the visit feel less personal (20% vs 5%, P = 0.017). Few patients thought the computer interfered with their relationship with their physicians (8% vs 8%). Residents were more likely than faculty to report these same adverse effects, but these differences were smaller and not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Patients seen by residents more often agreed that exam room computers decreased the amount of interpersonal contact. More research is needed to elucidate key tasks and behaviors that facilitate doctor–patient communication in such a setting

Recent developments and strategies in pediatric pharmacology research in the USA

Research in pediatric pharmacology has undergone major changes in the last ten years, with an expansion in both publicly and privately funded activities. A number of pharmacokinetics studies and multi-site controlled efficacy trials have been conducted, so that treatment of children and adolescents can now be better informed and evidence-based. Regulatory financial incentives to industry in return for studies on drugs still covered by patent exclusivity have resulted in a substantial increase in pediatric research funded by pharmaceutical companies. In parallel, public funding has supported research on off-patent medications and other clinical important aspects of treatment, such as comparisons between active treatments, including non-pharmacological interventions. With greater interest by industry in pediatric research, the role of government funding agencies has been redefined to avoid duplication and ensure better integration of efforts and utilization of resources. The present review discusses some of the recent developments in pediatric pharmacology with focus on psychiatric medications

Genome-wide association reveals three SNPs associated with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis through a two-locus analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal, degenerative neuromuscular disease characterized by a progressive loss of voluntary motor activity. About 95% of ALS patients are in "sporadic form"-meaning their disease is not associated with a family history of the disease. To date, the genetic factors of the sporadic form of ALS are poorly understood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We proposed a two-stage approach based on seventeen biological plausible models to search for two-locus combinations that have significant joint effects to the disease in a genome-wide association study (GWAS). We used a two-stage strategy to reduce the computational burden associated with performing an exhaustive two-locus search across the genome. In the first stage, all SNPs were screened using a single-marker test. In the second stage, all pairs made from the 1000 SNPs with the lowest p-values from the first stage were evaluated under each of the 17 two-locus models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>we performed the two-stage approach on a GWAS data set of sporadic ALS from the SNP Database at the NINDS Human Genetics Resource Center DNA and Cell Line Repository <url>http://ccr.coriell.org/ninds/</url>. Our two-locus analysis showed that two two-locus combinations--rs4363506 (SNP1) and rs3733242 (SNP2), and rs4363506 and rs16984239 (SNP3) -- were significantly associated with sporadic ALS. After adjusting for multiple tests and multiple models, the combination of SNP1 and SNP2 had a p-value of 0.032 under the Dom∩Dom epistatic model; SNP1 and SNP3 had a p-value of 0.042 under the Dom × Dom multiplicative model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The proposed two-stage analytical method can be used to search for joint effects of genes in GWAS. The two-stage strategy decreased the computational time and the multiple testing burdens associated with GWAS. We have also observed that the loci identified by our two-stage strategy can not be detected by single-locus tests.</p