The ad-libitum alcohol 'taste test': secondary analyses of potential confounds and construct validity

RATIONALE: Motivation to drink alcohol can be measured in the laboratory using an ad-libitum 'taste test', in which participants rate the taste of alcoholic drinks whilst their intake is covertly monitored. Little is known about the construct validity of this paradigm. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate variables that may compromise the validity of this paradigm and its construct validity. METHODS: We re-analysed data from 12 studies from our laboratory that incorporated an ad-libitum taste test. We considered time of day and participants' awareness of the purpose of the taste test as potential confounding variables. We examined whether gender, typical alcohol consumption, subjective craving, scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and perceived pleasantness of the drinks predicted ad-libitum consumption (construct validity). RESULTS: We included 762 participants (462 female). Participant awareness and time of day were not related to ad-libitum alcohol consumption. Males drank significantly more alcohol than females (

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions

Sex-biased parental care and sexual size dimorphism in a provisioning arthropod

The diverse selection pressures driving the evolution of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) have long been debated. While the balance between fecundity selection and sexual selection has received much attention, explanations based on sex-specific ecology have proven harder to test. In ectotherms, females are typically larger than males, and this is frequently thought to be because size constrains female fecundity more than it constrains male mating success. However, SSD could additionally reflect maternal care strategies. Under this hypothesis, females are relatively larger where reproduction requires greater maximum maternal effort – for example where mothers transport heavy provisions to nests. To test this hypothesis we focussed on digger wasps (Hymenoptera: Ammophilini), a relatively homogeneous group in which only females provision offspring. In some species, a single large prey item, up to 10 times the mother’s weight, must be carried to each burrow on foot; other species provide many small prey, each flown individually to the nest. We found more pronounced female-biased SSD in species where females carry single, heavy prey. More generally, SSD was negatively correlated with numbers of prey provided per offspring. Females provisioning multiple small items had longer wings and thoraxes, probably because smaller prey are carried in flight. Despite much theorising, few empirical studies have tested how sex-biased parental care can affect SSD. Our study reveals that such costs can be associated with the evolution of dimorphism, and this should be investigated in other clades where parental care costs differ between sexes and species

Does inter-vertebral range of motion increase after spinal manipulation? A prospective cohort study.

Background: Spinal manipulation for nonspecific neck pain is thought to work in part by improving inter-vertebral range of motion (IV-RoM), but it is difficult to measure this or determine whether it is related to clinical outcomes. Objectives: This study undertook to determine whether cervical spine flexion and extension IV-RoM increases after a course of spinal manipulation, to explore relationships between any IV-RoM increases and clinical outcomes and to compare palpation with objective measurement in the detection of hypo-mobile segments. Method: Thirty patients with nonspecific neck pain and 30 healthy controls matched for age and gender received quantitative fluoroscopy (QF) screenings to measure flexion and extension IV-RoM (C1-C6) at baseline and 4-week follow-up between September 2012-13. Patients received up to 12 neck manipulations and completed NRS, NDI and Euroqol 5D-5L at baseline, plus PGIC and satisfaction questionnaires at follow-up. IV-RoM accuracy, repeatability and hypo-mobility cut-offs were determined. Minimal detectable changes (MDC) over 4 weeks were calculated from controls. Patients and control IV-RoMs were compared at baseline as well as changes in patients over 4 weeks. Correlations between outcomes and the number of manipulations received and the agreement (Kappa) between palpated and QF-detected of hypo-mobile segments were calculated. Results: QF had high accuracy (worst RMS error 0.5o) and repeatability (highest SEM 1.1o, lowest ICC 0.90) for IV-RoM measurement. Hypo-mobility cut offs ranged from 0.8o to 3.5o. No outcome was significantly correlated with increased IV-RoM above MDC and there was no significant difference between the number of hypo-mobile segments in patients and controls at baseline or significant increases in IV-RoMs in patients. However, there was a modest and significant correlation between the number of manipulations received and the number of levels and directions whose IV-RoM increased beyond MDC (Rho=0.39, p=0.043). There was also no agreement between palpation and QF in identifying hypo-mobile segments (Kappa 0.04-0.06). Conclusions: This study found no differences in cervical sagittal IV-RoM between patients with non-specific neck pain and matched controls. There was a modest dose-response relationship between the number of manipulations given and number of levels increasing IV-RoM - providing evidence that neck manipulation has a mechanical effect at segmental levels. However, patient-reported outcomes were not related to this

Prospective mental imagery as its link with anxiety and depression in prisoners

Mental imagery is known to play a key role in the development and maintenance of depression and anxiety. Prisoners commonly experience psychological distress, but interventions to address this are currently lacking. We aimed to examine the link between prospective mental imagery and anxiety and depression among prisoners. One hundred twenty-three male prisoners from a Category C prison in southwest England participated in the study. They completed the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the General Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) to measure whether they experience depression and/or anxiety symptoms. Furthermore, they completed additional questionnaires to evaluate their prospective mental imagery. Results showed that 67.5% of prisoners presented with more depression symptoms and 27.7% with more anxiety symptoms. Supporting earlier findings, our data revealed that some dimensions of prospective mental imagery were significantly related with increased anxiety and depression symptoms in prisoners. Namely, intrusive negative personally relevant imagery was a positive predictor and likelihood of positive events a negative predictor of both anxiety and depression symptoms. The perceived likelihood of negative events was a positive predictor of depression. Intrusive verbal thought was a positive predictor of anxiety. The obtained results suggest the need to develop interventions not only targeting the reduction of prospective negative imagery but also the enhancement of positive mental imagery

Characterizing eve: Analysing cybercrime actors in a large underground forum

Underground forums contain many thousands of active users, but the vast majority will be involved, at most, in minor levels of deviance. The number who engage in serious criminal activity is small. That being said, underground forums have played a significant role in several recent high-profile cybercrime activities. In this work we apply data science approaches to understand criminal pathways and characterize key actors related to illegal activity in one of the largest and longest- running underground forums. We combine the results of a logistic regression model with k-means clustering and social network analysis, verifying the findings using topic analysis. We identify variables relating to forum activity that predict the likelihood a user will become an actor of interest to law enforcement, and would therefore benefit the most from intervention. This work provides the first step towards identifying ways to deter the involvement of young people away from a career in cybercrime.Alan Turing Institut

Model emulation to understand the joint effects of ice-nucleating particles and secondary ice production on deep convective anvil cirrus

Ice crystal formation in the mixed-phase region of deep convective clouds can affect the properties of climatically important convectively generated anvil clouds. Small ice crystals in the mixed-phase cloud region can be formed by heterogeneous ice nucleation by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and secondary ice production (SIP) by, for example, the Hallett–Mossop process. We quantify the effects of INP number concentration, the temperature dependence of the INP number concentration at mixed-phase temperatures, and the Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency on the anvil of an idealised deep convective cloud using a Latin hypercube sampling method, which allows optimal coverage of a multidimensional parameter space, and statistical emulation, which allows us to identify interdependencies between the three uncertain inputs. Our results show that anvil ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) is determined predominately by INP number concentration, with the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity having a secondary role. Conversely, anvil ice crystal size is determined predominately by the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity, with INP number concentration having a secondary role. This is because in our simulations ICNC is predominately controlled by the number concentration of cloud droplets reaching the homogeneous freezing level which is in turn determined by INP number concentrations at low temperatures. Ice crystal size, however, is more strongly affected by the amount of liquid available for riming and the time available for deposition growth which is determined by INP number concentrations at higher temperatures. This work indicates that the amount of ice particle production by the Hallett–Mossop process is determined jointly by the prescribed Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency and the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity. In particular, our sampling of the joint parameter space shows that high rates of SIP do not occur unless the INP parameterisation slope (the temperature dependence of the number concentration of particles which nucleate ice) is shallow, regardless of the prescribed Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency. A shallow INP parameterisation slope and consequently high ice particle production by the Hallett–Mossop process in our simulations leads to a sharp transition to a cloud with extensive glaciation at warm temperatures, higher cloud updraughts, enhanced vertical mass flux, and condensate divergence at the outflow level, all of which leads to a larger convectively generated anvil comprised of larger ice crystals. This work highlights the importance of quantifying the full spectrum of INP number concentrations across all mixed-phase altitudes and the ways in which INP and SIP interact to control anvil properties