Land-ocean shifts in tropical precipitation linked to surface temperature and humidity change

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.A compositing scheme that predicts changes in tropical precipitation under climate change from changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) and temperature is presented. As shown by earlier work, regions of high tropical precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) are associated with high near-surface RH and temperature. Under climate change, we find that high precipitation continues to be associated with the highest surface RH and temperatures in most CMIP5 GCMs, meaning that it is the “rank” of a given GCM gridbox with respect to others that determines how much precipitation falls rather than the absolute value of surface temperature or RH change, consistent with the weak temperature gradient approximation. Further, we demonstrate that the majority of CMIP5 GCMs are close to a threshold near which reductions in land RH produce large reductions in the RH-ranking of some land regions, causing reductions in precipitation over land, particularly South America, and compensating increases over ocean. Recent work on predicting future changes in specific humidity allows us to predict the qualitative sense of precipitation change in some GCMs when land surface humidity changes are unknown. However, the magnitudes of predicted changes are too small. Further study, perhaps into the role of radiative and land-atmosphere feedbacks that we neglect, is necessary.We are grateful to Richard Allan, whose suggestions substantially improved results. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programmes Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating sup- port and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank the JASMIN and CEDA team for making available the JASMIN computing resource (Lawrence et al. 2013). FHL was part supported by the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Part- nership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund; AJF was supported by the NERC PROBEC project NE/K016016/1; RC was supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office CSSP Brazi

A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Open Access journalCopyright: © 2014 Ferraro et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Targeting neurotrophic factors for low back pain and sciatica: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: This meta-analysis aims to investigate the efficacy and safety of medicines that target neurotrophic factors for low back pain (LBP) or sciatica. Methods: We searched published and trial registry reports of randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of medicines that target neurotrophic factors to LBP or sciatica in seven databases from inception to December 2020. Two reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and certainty in the evidence. Results: Nine studies (3370 participants) were included in the meta-analyses. Low certainty evidence showed that anti-nerve growth factor (NGF) may reduce pain at 4 weeks (mean difference [MD] -6.75, 95% CI: -8.61, -4.90) and 12 weeks (MD -6.16, 95% CI: -8.38, -3.94), and may increase adverse effects for chronic LBP (odds ratio [OR] 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.38). Higher doses of anti-NGF may offer a clinically important reduction in pain at the cost of increased adverse effects for chronic LBP. Very low certainty evidence showed that anti-NGF and glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (pro-GDNF) may not reduce pain for sciatica at 4 weeks (MD -1.40, 95% CI: -8.26, 5.46), at 12 weeks (MD -2.91, 95% CI: -13.69, 7.67) and may increase adverse effects for sciatica (OR 3.27, 95% CI: 1.78, 6.00). Conclusion: Anti-NGF may offer small reductions in pain intensity for chronic LBP. The effect may depend on the dose and types of medicines. For sciatica, anti-NGF or pro-GDNF may not reduce pain. Medicines that target neurotrophic factors for LBP or sciatica are associated with different adverse effects compared to those observed in commonly prescribed medicines for these conditions

The detection of the imprint of filaments on cosmic microwave background lensing

Galaxy redshift surveys, such as 2dF, SDSS, 6df, GAMA and VIPERS, have shown that the spatial distribution of matter forms a rich web, known as the cosmic web. The majority of galaxy survey analyses measure the amplitude of galaxy clustering as a function of scale, ignoring information beyond a small number of summary statistics. Since the matter density field becomes highly non-Gaussian as structure evolves under gravity, we expect other statistical descriptions of the field to provide us with additional information. One way to study the non-Gaussianity is to study filaments, which evolve non-linearly from the initial density fluctuations produced in the primordial Universe. In our study, we report the first detection of CMB (Cosmic Microwave Background) lensing by filaments and we apply a null test to confirm our detection. Furthermore, we propose a phenomenological model to interpret the detected signal and we measure how filaments trace the matter distribution on large scales through filament bias, which we measure to be around 1.5. Our study provides a new scope to understand the environmental dependence of galaxy formation. In the future, the joint analysis of lensing and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations might reveal the properties of `missing baryons', the vast majority of the gas which resides in the intergalactic medium and has so far evaded most observations

Comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for adults with non-specific acute low back pain: systematic review and network meta-analysis

Objective To evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for acute non-specific low back pain. Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov, clinicialtrialsregister.eu, and World Health Organization’s International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from database inception to 20 February 2022. Eligibility criteria for study selection Randomised controlled trials of analgesic medicines (eg, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, paracetamol, opioids, anti-convulsant drugs, skeletal muscle relaxants, or corticosteroids) compared with another analgesic medicine, placebo, or no treatment. Adults (≥18 years) who reported acute non-specific low back pain (for less than six weeks). Data extraction and synthesis Primary outcomes were low back pain intensity (0-100 scale) at end of treatment and safety (number of participants who reported any adverse event during treatment). Secondary outcomes were low back specific function, serious adverse events, and discontinuation from treatment. Two reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. A random effects network meta-analysis was done and confidence was evaluated by the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis method. Results 98 randomised controlled trials (15 134 participants, 49% women) included 69 different medicines or combinations. Low or very low confidence was noted in evidence for reduced pain intensity after treatment with tolperisone (mean difference −26.1 (95% confidence intervals −34.0 to −18.2)), aceclofenac plus tizanidine (−26.1 (−38.5 to −13.6)), pregabalin (−24.7 (−34.6 to −14.7)), and 14 other medicines compared with placebo. Low or very low confidence was noted for no difference between the effects of several of these medicines. Increased adverse events had moderate to very low confidence with tramadol (risk ratio 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.5 to 4.5)), paracetamol plus sustained release tramadol (2.4 (1.5 to 3.8)), baclofen (2.3 (1.5 to 3.4)), and paracetamol plus tramadol (2.1 (1.3 to 3.4)) compared with placebo. These medicines could increase the risk of adverse events compared with other medicines with moderate to low confidence. Moderate to low confidence was also noted for secondary outcomes and secondary analysis of medicine classes. Conclusions The comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for acute non-specific low back pain are uncertain. Until higher quality randomised controlled trials of head-to-head comparisons are published, clinicians and patients are recommended to take a cautious approach to manage acute non-specific low back pain with analgesic medicines.MAW was supported by a Postgraduate Scholarship from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, a School of Medical Sciences Top-Up Scholarship from the University of New South Wales, and a PhD Supplementary Scholarship from Neuroscience Research Australia. MKB was supported by a PhD Candidature Scholarship and Supplementary Scholarship from Neuroscience Research Australia. MCF was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, a PhD Supplementary Scholarship from Neuroscience Research Australia, and the Edward C Dunn Foundation Scholarship. RRNR was supported by the School of Medical Sciences Postgraduate Research Scholarship from the University of New South Wales and a PhD Supplementary Scholarship from Neuroscience Research Australia. HBL was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. SSh was supported by the International Association for the Study of Pain John J Bonica Postdoctoral Fellowship. CGM was supported by an NHMRC Leadership 3 Fellowship (App 1194283). SMG was supported by a Research Fellowship from the Rebecca L Cooper Foundation. AN was supported by personal fellowship (P400PM_186723) from the Swiss National Science Foundation. This study received project support funding from a 2020 Exercise Physiology Research (Consumables) Grant from the University of New South Wales, which was used to obtain translations of studies published in languages other than English. The funder had played no part in the design, conduct, or analysis of the study

Comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for adults with acute non-specific low back pain: systematic review and network meta-analysis

Objective: To evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for acute non-specific low back pain. Design: Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov, clinicialtrialsregister.eu, and World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from database inception to 20 February 2022. Eligibility criteria for study selection: Randomised controlled trials of analgesic medicines (eg, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, paracetamol, opioids, anti-convulsant drugs, skeletal muscle relaxants, or corticosteroids) compared with another analgesic medicine, placebo, or no treatment. Adults (≥18 years) who reported acute non-specific low back pain (for less than six weeks). Data extraction and synthesis: Primary outcomes were low back pain intensity (0-100 scale) at end of treatment and safety (number of participants who reported any adverse event during treatment). Secondary outcomes were low back specific function, serious adverse events, and discontinuation from treatment. Two reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. A random effects network meta-analysis was done and confidence was evaluated by the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis method. Results: 98 randomised controlled trials (15 134 participants, 49% women) included 69 different medicines or combinations. Low or very low confidence was noted in evidence for reduced pain intensity after treatment with tolperisone (mean difference -26.1 (95% confidence intervals -34.0 to -18.2)), aceclofenac plus tizanidine (-26.1 (-38.5 to -13.6)), pregabalin (-24.7 (-34.6 to -14.7)), and 14 other medicines compared with placebo. Low or very low confidence was noted for no difference between the effects of several of these medicines. Increased adverse events had moderate to very low confidence with tramadol (risk ratio 2.6 (95% confidence interval 1.5 to 4.5)), paracetamol plus sustained release tramadol (2.4 (1.5 to 3.8)), baclofen (2.3 (1.5 to 3.4)), and paracetamol plus tramadol (2.1 (1.3 to 3.4)) compared with placebo. These medicines could increase the risk of adverse events compared with other medicines with moderate to low confidence. Moderate to low confidence was also noted for secondary outcomes and secondary analysis of medicine classes. Conclusions: The comparative effectiveness and safety of analgesic medicines for acute non-specific low back pain are uncertain. Until higher quality randomised controlled trials of head-to-head comparisons are published, clinicians and patients are recommended to take a cautious approach to manage acute non-specific low back pain with analgesic medicines. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD4201914525

Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods

Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. We investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5 Tg yr−1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection when no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature should it be needed

Accounting Problems Under the Excess Profits Tax

DNA vaccines based on subunits from pathogens have several advantages over other vaccine strategies. DNA vaccines can easily be modified, they show good safety profiles, are stable and inexpensive to produce, and the immune response can be focused to the antigen of interest. However, the immunogenicity of DNA vaccines which is generally quite low needs to be improved. Electroporation and co-delivery of genetically encoded immune adjuvants are two strategies aiming at increasing the efficacy of DNA vaccines. Here, we have examined whether targeting to antigen-presenting cells (APC) could increase the immune response to surface envelope glycoprotein (Env) gp120 from Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV- 1). To target APC, we utilized a homodimeric vaccine format denoted vaccibody, which enables covalent fusion of gp120 to molecules that can target APC. Two molecules were tested for their efficiency as targeting units: the antibody-derived single chain Fragment variable (scFv) specific for the major histocompatilibility complex (MHC) class II I-E molecules, and the CC chemokine ligand 3 (CCL3). The vaccines were delivered as DNA into muscle of mice with or without electroporation. Targeting of gp120 to MHC class II molecules induced antibodies that neutralized HIV-1 and that persisted for more than a year after one single immunization with electroporation. Targeting by CCL3 significantly increased the number of HIV-1 gp120-reactive CD8(+) T cells compared to non-targeted vaccines and gp120 delivered alone in the absence of electroporation. The data suggest that chemokines are promising molecular adjuvants because small amounts can attract immune cells and promote immune responses without advanced equipment such as electroporation.Funding Agencies|Research Council of Norway; Odd Fellow</p

The N-Terminal DH-PH Domain of Trio Induces Cell Spreading and Migration by Regulating Lamellipodia Dynamics in a Rac1-Dependent Fashion

The guanine-nucleotide exchange factor Trio encodes two DH-PH domains that catalyze nucleotide exchange on Rac1, RhoG and RhoA. The N-terminal DH-PH domain is known to activate Rac1 and RhoG, whereas the C-terminal DH-PH domain can activate RhoA. The current study shows that the N-terminal DH-PH domain, upon expression in HeLa cells, activates Rac1 and RhoG independently from each other. In addition, we show that the flanking SH3 domain binds to the proline-rich region of the C-terminus of Rac1, but not of RhoG. However, this SH3 domain is not required for Rac1 or RhoG GDP-GTP exchange. Rescue experiments in Trio-shRNA-expressing cells showed that the N-terminal DH-PH domain of Trio, but not the C-terminal DH-PH domain, restored fibronectin-mediated cell spreading and migration defects that are observed in Trio-silenced cells. Kymograph analysis revealed that the N-terminal DH-PH domain, independent of its SH3 domain, controls the dynamics of lamellipodia. Using siRNA against Rac1 or RhoG, we found that Trio-D1-induced lamellipodia formation required Rac1 but not RhoG expression. Together, we conclude that the GEF Trio is responsible for lamellipodia formation through its N-terminal DH-PH domain in a Rac1-dependent manner during fibronectin-mediated spreading and migration