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research
A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Authors
A Robock
AJ Ferraro
+20 more
AJ Viera
Andrew J. Charlton-Perez
Angus J. Ferraro
B Kravitz
BS Kravitz
BS Kravitz
DW Keith
Eleanor J. Highwood
FD Pope
JB Moreno-Cruz
KL Ricke
KL Ricke
PJ Irvine
PJ Rasch
PMF Forster
SM Uppala
T Marsh
Vanesa Magar
WD Nordhaus
Y Fujii
Publication date
12 February 2014
Publisher
'Public Library of Science (PLoS)'
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PubMed
Abstract
Open Access journalCopyright: © 2014 Ferraro et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC
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