Computational Controversy

Climate change, vaccination, abortion, Trump: Many topics are surrounded by fierce controversies. The nature of such heated debates and their elements have been studied extensively in the social science literature. More recently, various computational approaches to controversy analysis have appeared, using new data sources such as Wikipedia, which help us now better understand these phenomena. However, compared to what social sciences have discovered about such debates, the existing computational approaches mostly focus on just a few of the many important aspects around the concept of controversies. In order to link the two strands, we provide and evaluate here a controversy model that is both, rooted in the findings of the social science literature and at the same time strongly linked to computational methods. We show how this model can lead to computational controversy analytics that have full coverage over all the crucial aspects that make up a controversy.Comment: In Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Estimating the prevalence of problem drug use from drug-related mortality data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Indirect estimation methods are required for estimating the size of populations where only a proportion of individuals are observed directly, such as problem drug users (PDUs). Capture-recapture and multiplier methods are widely used, but have been criticized as subject to bias. We propose a new approach to estimating prevalence of PDU from numbers of fatal drug-related poisonings (fDRPs) using linked databases, addressing the key limitations of simplistic 'mortality multipliers'. METHODS: Our approach requires linkage of data on a large cohort of known PDUs to mortality registers and summary information concerning additional fDRPs observed outside this cohort. We model fDRP rates among the cohort and assume that rates in unobserved PDUs are equal to rates in the cohort during periods out of treatment. Prevalence is estimated in a Bayesian statistical framework, in which we simultaneously fit regression models to fDRP rates and prevalence, allowing both to vary by demographic factors and the former also by treatment status. RESULTS: We report a case study analysis, estimating the prevalence of opioid dependence in England in 2008/09, by gender, age group and geographical region. Overall prevalence was estimated as 0.82% (95% credible interval = 0.74-0.94%) of 15-64-year-olds, which is similar to a published estimate based on capture-recapture analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling approach estimates prevalence from drug-related mortality data, while addressing the main limitations of simplistic multipliers. This offers an alternative approach for the common situation where available data sources do not meet the strong assumptions required for valid capture-recapture estimation. In a case study analysis, prevalence estimates based on our approach were surprisingly similar to existing capture-recapture estimates but, we argue, are based on a much more objective and justifiable modelling approach

Prevalence and predictors of complementary and alternative medicine use among people with coronary heart disease or at risk for this in the sixth Tromsø study: a comparative analysis using protection motivation theory

Background Engagement in healthy lifestyle behaviors, such as healthy diet and regular physical activity, are known to reduce the risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD). Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is known to be associated with having a healthy lifestyle. The primary aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and predictors of CAM use in CHD patients, and in those without CHD but at risk for developing CHD, using Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as a guiding conceptual framework. Method Questionnaire data were collected from 12,981 adult participants in the cross-sectional sixth Tromsø Study (2007–8). Eligible for analyses were 11,103 participants who reported whether they had used CAM or not. Of those, 830 participants reported to have or have had CHD (CHD group), 4830 reported to have parents, children or siblings with CHD (no CHD but family risk), while 5443 reported no CHD nor family risk of CHD. We first compared the patterns of CAM use in each group, and then examined the PMT predictors of CAM use. Health vulnerability from the threat appraisal process of PMT was assessed by self-rated health and expectations for future health. Response efficacy from the coping appraisal process of PMT was assessed as preventive health beliefs and health behavior frequency. Results Use of CAM was most commonly seen in people with no CHD themselves, but family risk of developing CHD (35.8%), compared to people already diagnosed with CHD (30.2%) and people with no CHD nor family risk (32.1%). All four of the PMT factors; self-rated health, expectations for future health, preventive health beliefs, and the health behavior index – were predictors for CAM use in the no CHD but family risk group. Conclusion These findings suggest that people use CAM in response to a perceived risk of developing CHD, and to prevent disease and to maintain health

A Prospective Study of the Association of Metacognitive Beliefs and Processes with Persistent Emotional Distress After Diagnosis of Cancer

Two hundred and six patients, diagnosed with primary breast or prostate cancer completed self-report questionnaires on two occasions: before treatment (T1) and 12 months later (T2). The questionnaires included: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; Impact of Events Scale; the Metacognitions Questionnaire-30 (MCQ-30) and the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire-revised. A series of regression analyses indicated that metacognitive beliefs at T1 predicted between 14 and 19 % of the variance in symptoms of anxiety, depression and trauma at T2 after controlling for age and gender. For all three outcomes, the MCQ-30 subscale ‘negative beliefs about worry’ made the largest individual contribution with ‘cognitive confidence’ also contributing in each case. For anxiety, a third metacognitive variable, ‘positive beliefs about worry’ also predicted variance in T2 symptoms. In addition, hierarchical analyses indicated that metacognitive beliefs explained a small but significant amount of variance in T2 anxiety (2 %) and T2 depression (4 %) over and above that explained by demographic variables, T1 symptoms and T1 illness perceptions. The findings suggest that modifying metacognitive beliefs and processes has the potential to alleviate distress associated with cancer

Consumption patterns of sweet drinks in a population of Australian children and adolescents (2003–2008)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intake of sweet drinks has previously been associated with the development of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents. The present study aimed to assess the consumption pattern of sweet drinks in a population of children and adolescents in Victoria, Australia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on 1,604 children and adolescents (4–18 years) from the comparison groups of two quasi-experimental intervention studies from Victoria, Australia were analysed<it>.</it> Sweet drink consumption (soft drink and fruit juice/cordial) was assessed as one day’s intake and typical intake over the last week or month at two time points between 2003 and 2008 (mean time between measurement: 2.2 years).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Assessed using dietary recalls, more than 70% of the children and adolescents consumed sweet drinks, with no difference between age groups (p = 0.28). The median intake among consumers was 500 ml and almost a third consumed more than 750 ml per day. More children and adolescents consumed fruit juice/cordial (69%) than soft drink (33%) (p < 0.0001) and in larger volumes (median intake fruit juice/cordial: 500 ml and soft drink: 375 ml). Secular changes in sweet drink consumption were observed with a lower proportion of children and adolescents consuming sweet drinks at time 2 compared to time 1 (significant for age group 8 to <10 years, p = 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The proportion of Australian children and adolescents from the state of Victoria consuming sweet drinks has been stable or decreasing, although a high proportion of this sample consumed sweet drinks, especially fruit juice/cordial at both time points.</p

Both Geography and Ecology Contribute to Mating Isolation in Guppies

Local adaptation to different environments can promote mating isolation – either as an incidental by-product of trait divergence, or as a result of selection to avoid maladaptive mating. Numerous recent empirical examples point to the common influence of divergent natural selection on speciation based largely on evidence of strong pre-mating isolation between populations from different habitat types. Accumulating evidence for natural selection's influence on speciation is therefore no longer a challenge. The difficulty, rather, is in determining the mechanisms involved in the progress of adaptive divergence to speciation once barriers to gene flow are already present. Here, we present results of both laboratory and field experiments with Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) from different environments, who do not show complete reproductive isolation despite adaptive divergence. We investigate patterns of mating isolation between populations that do and do not exchange migrants and show evidence for both by-product and reinforcement mechanisms depending on female ecology. Specifically, low-predation females discriminate against all high-predation males thus implying a by-product mechanism, whereas high-predation females only discriminate against low-predation males from further upstream in the same river, implying selection to avoid maladaptive mating. Our study thus confirms that mechanisms of adaptive speciation are not necessarily mutually exclusive and uncovers the complex ecology-geography interactions that underlie the evolution of mating isolation in nature

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Global Diversity of Ascidiacea

The class Ascidiacea presents fundamental opportunities for research in the fields of development, evolution, ecology, natural products and more. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the current knowledge regarding the global biodiversity of the class Ascidiacea, focusing in their taxonomy, main regions of biodiversity, and distribution patterns. Based on analysis of the literature and the species registered in the online World Register of Marine Species, we assembled a list of 2815 described species. The highest number of species and families is found in the order Aplousobranchia. Didemnidae and Styelidae families have the highest number of species with more than 500 within each group. Sixty percent of described species are colonial. Species richness is highest in tropical regions, where colonial species predominate. In higher latitudes solitary species gradually contribute more to the total species richness. We emphasize the strong association between species richness and sampling efforts, and discuss the risks of invasive species. Our inventory is certainly incomplete as the ascidian fauna in many areas around the world is relatively poorly known, and many new species continue to be discovered and described each year

Gram Negative Bacteria Are Associated with the Early Stages of Necrotizing Enterocolitis

Introduction: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) affects 5–10 % of infants born weighing less than 1500 g. Most models of NEC recapitulate late-stage disease with gut necrosis and elevated inflammatory mediators. Evaluation of NEC at earlier, less lethal stages of disease will allow investigation of initial disease triggers and may advance our understanding of temporal relationships between factors implicated in NEC pathogenesis. In this manuscript, we describe our investigation of early NEC and test the hypothesis that bacteria and inflammatory mediators differ between animals with early NEC and disease fre