The Dynamic Chain Event Graph

In this paper we develop a formal dynamic version of Chain Event Graphs (CEGs), a particularly expressive family of discrete graph- ical models. We demonstrate how this class links to semi-Markov models and provides a convenient generalization of the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). In particular we develop a repeating time-slice Dynamic CEG providing a useful and simpler model in this family. We demonstrate how the Dynamic CEG’s graphical formulation exhibits asymmetric conditional independence statements and also how each model can be estimated in a closed form enabling fast model search over the class. The expressive power of this model class together with its estimation is illustrated throughout by a variety of examples that include the risk of childhood hospitalization and the efficacy of a flu vaccine

Physicians Infrequently Adhere to Hepatitis Vaccination Guidelines for Chronic Liver Disease

Background and Goals:Hepatitis A (HAV) and hepatitis B (HBV) vaccination in patients with chronic liver disease is an accepted standard of care. We determined HAV and HBV vaccination rates in a tertiary care referral hepatology clinic and the impact of electronic health record (EHR)-based reminders on adherence to vaccination guidelines.Methods:We reviewed the records of 705 patients with chronic liver disease referred to our liver clinic in 2008 with at least two follow-up visits during the subsequent year. Demographics, referral source, etiology, and hepatitis serology were recorded. We determined whether eligible patients were offered vaccination and whether patients received vaccination. Barriers to vaccination were determined by a follow-up telephone interview.Results:HAV and HBV serologic testing prior to referral and at the liver clinic were performed in 14.5% and 17.7%; and 76.7% and 74% patients, respectively. Hepatologists recommended vaccination for HAV in 63% and for HBV in 59.7% of eligible patients. Patient demographics or disease etiology did not influence recommendation rates. Significant variability was observed in vaccination recommendation amongst individual providers (30-98.6%), which did not correlate with the number of patients seen by each physician. Vaccination recommendation rates were not different for Medicare patients with hepatitis C infection for whom a vaccination reminder was automatically generated by the EHR. Most patients who failed to get vaccination after recommendation offered no specific reason for noncompliance; insurance was a barrier in a minority.Conclusions:Hepatitis vaccination rates were suboptimal even in an academic, sub-speciality setting, with wide-variability in provider adherence to vaccination guidelines. © 2013 Thudi et al

Complexity within an oil palm monoculture: The effects of habitat variability and rainfall on adult dragonfly (Odonata) communities

Recent expansion of oil palm agriculture has resulted in loss of forest habitat and forest-dependent species. However, large numbers of species – particularly insects – can persist within plantations. This study focuses on Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies): a charismatic indicator taxon, and a potentially valuable pest control agent. We surveyed adult Odonata populations biannually over three years within an industrial oil palm plantation in Sumatra, Indonesia. We assessed the effects of rainfall (including an El Niño Southern Oscillation-associated drought), the role of roadside ditches, and the importance of understory vegetation on Odonata populations. To assess the impacts of vegetation we took advantage of a long-term vegetation management experiment that is part of the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme. We found 41 Odonata species, and communities varied between plantation core and roadside edge microhabitats, and between seasons. Abundance was significantly related to rainfall levels four months before surveys, probably indicating the importance of high water levels in roadside ditches for successful larval development. We found no significant effect of the BEFTA understory vegetation treatments on Odonata abundance, and only limited effects on community composition, suggesting that local understory vegetation structure plays a relatively unimportant role in determining communities. Our findings highlight that there are large numbers of Odonata species present within oil palm plantations, and suggest that their abundance could potentially be increased by maintaining or establishing waterbodies. As Odonata are predators, this could bring pest control benefits, in addition to enhancing biodiversity within intensive agricultural landscapes.This work was funded by The Isaac Newton Trust Cambridge, Golden Agri Resources, and the Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/P00458X/1]

Incorporating corrosion measurement in hip wear simulators: An added complication or a necessity?

Corrosion is not routinely considered in the assessment of the degradation or the lifetime of total hip replacement bearing surfaces. Biomechanical simulations are becoming ever more complex and are taking into account motion cycles that represent activities beyond a simple walking gait at 1 Hz, marking a departure from the standard ISO BS 14242. However, the degradation is still very often referred to as wear, even though the material loss occurs due to a combination of tribological and corrosion processes and their interactions. This article evaluates how, by incorporating real-time corrosion measurements in total hip replacement simulations, pre-clinical evaluations and research studies can both yield much more information and accelerate the process towards improved implants

Influence of ischemic core muscle fibers on surface depolarization potentials in superfused cardiac tissue preparations: a simulation study

Thin-walled cardiac tissue samples superfused with oxygenated solutions are widely used in experimental studies. However, due to decreased oxygen supply and insufficient wash out of waste products in the inner layers of such preparations, electrophysiological functions could be compromised. Although the cascade of events triggered by cutting off perfusion is well known, it remains unclear as to which degree electrophysiological function in viable surface layers is affected by pathological processes occurring in adjacent tissue. Using a 3D numerical bidomain model, we aim to quantify the impact of superfusion-induced heterogeneities occurring in the depth of the tissue on impulse propagation in superficial layers. Simulations demonstrated that both the pattern of activation as well as the distribution of extracellular potentials close to the surface remain essentially unchanged. This was true also for the electrophysiological properties of cells in the surface layer, where most relevant depolarization parameters varied by less than 5.5 %. The main observed effect on the surface was related to action potential duration that shortened noticeably by 53 % as hypoxia deteriorated. Despite the known limitations of such experimental methods, we conclude that superfusion is adequate for studying impulse propagation and depolarization whereas repolarization studies should consider the influence of pathological processes taking place at the core of tissue sample

Torpor on Demand: Heterothermy in the Non-Lemur Primate Galago moholi

Hibernation and daily torpor are energy- and water-saving adaptations employed to survive unfavourable periods mostly in temperate and arctic environments, but also in tropical and arid climates. Heterothermy has been found in a number of mammalian orders, but within the primates so far it seems to be restricted to one family of Malagasy lemurs. As currently there is no evidence of heterothermy of a primate outside of Madagascar, the aim of our study was to investigate whether small primates from mainland Africa are indeed always homeothermic despite pronounced seasonal changes in weather and food availability., which inhabits a highly seasonal habitat with a hot wet-season and a cold dry-season with lower food abundance, was investigated to determine whether it is capable of heterothermy. We measured skin temperature of free-ranging individuals throughout the cool dry season using temperature-sensitive collars as well as metabolic rate in captured individuals. Torpor was employed by 15% of 20 animals. Only one of these animals displayed heterothermy in response to natural availability of food and water, whereas the other animals became torpid without access to food and water. are physiologically capable of employing torpor. However they do not use it as a routine behaviour, but only under adverse conditions. This reluctance is presumably a result of conflicting selective pressures for energy savings versus other ecological and evolutionary forces, such as reproduction or territory defence. Our results support the view that heterothermy in primates evolved before the division of African and Malagasy Strepsirhini, with the possible implication that more primate species than previously thought might still have the potential to call upon this possibility, if the situation necessitates it

Managing Oil Palm Plantations More Sustainably: Large-Scale Experiments Within the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme

Conversion of tropical forest to agriculture results in reduced habitat heterogeneity, and associated declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Management strategies to increase biodiversity in agricultural landscapes have therefore often focused on increasing habitat complexity; however, the large-scale, long-term ecological experiments that are needed to test the effects of these strategies are rare in tropical systems. Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.)—one of the most widespread and important tropical crops—offers substantial potential for developing wildlife-friendly management strategies because of its long rotation cycles and tree-like structure. Although there is awareness of the need to increase sustainability, practical options for how best to manage oil palm plantations, for benefits to both the environment and crop productivity, have received little research attention. In this paper we introduce the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme: a long-term research collaboration between academia and industry in Sumatra, Indonesia. The BEFTA Programme aims to better understand the oil palm agroecosystem and test sustainability strategies. We hypothesise that adjustments to oil palm management could increase structural complexity, stabilize microclimate, and reduce reliance on chemical inputs, thereby helping to improve levels of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The Programme has established four major components: (1) assessing variability within the plantation under business-as-usual conditions; (2) the BEFTA Understory Vegetation Project, which tests the effects of varying herbicide regimes; (3) the Riparian Ecosystem Restoration in Tropical Agriculture (RERTA) Project, which tests strategies for restoring riparian habitat; and (4) support for additional collaborative projects within the Programme landscape. Across all projects, we are measuring environmental conditions, biodiversity, and ecosystem functions. We also measure oil palm yield and production costs, in order to assess whether suggested sustainability strategies are feasible from an agronomic perspective. Early results show that oil palm plantation habitat is more variable than might be expected from a monoculture crop, and that everyday vegetation management decisions have significant impacts on habitat structure. The BEFTA Programme highlights the value of large-scale collaborative projects for understanding tropical agricultural systems, and offers a highly valuable experimental set-up for improving our understanding of practices to manage oil palm more sustainably.This work was funded by The Isaac Newton Trust Cambridge, Golden Agri Resources, ICOPE (the International Conference on Oil Palm and the Environment), and the Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/P00458X/1]

The feasibility of a randomised controlled trial to compare the cost-effectiveness of palliative cardiology or usual care in people with advanced heart failure: Two exploratory prospective cohorts

© 2018, © The Author(s) 2018. Background: The effectiveness of cardiology-led palliative care is unknown; we have insufficient information to conduct a full trial. Aim: To assess the feasibility (recruitment/retention, data quality, variability/sample size estimation, safety) of a clinical trial of palliative cardiology effectiveness. Design: Non-randomised feasibility. Setting/participants: Unmatched symptomatic heart failure patients on optimal cardiac treatment from (1) cardiology-led palliative service (caring together group) and (2) heart failure liaison service (usual care group). Outcomes/safety: Symptoms (Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale), Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, performance, understanding of disease, anticipatory care planning, cost-effectiveness, survival and carer burden. Results: A total of 77 participants (caring together group = 43; usual care group = 34) were enrolled (53% men; mean age 77 years (33–100)). The caring together group scored worse in Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale (43.5 vs 35.2) and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (35.4 vs 39.9). The caring together group had a lower consent/screen ratio (1:1.7 vs 1: 2.8) and few died before approach (0.08% vs 16%) or declined invitation (17% vs 37%). Data quality: At 4 months, 74% in the caring together group and 71% in the usual care group provided data. Most attrition was due to death or deterioration. Data quality in self-report measures was otherwise good. Safety: There was no difference in survival. Symptoms and quality of life improved in both groups. A future trial requires 141 (202 allowing 30% attrition) to detect a minimal clinical difference (1 point) in Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale score for breathlessness (80% power). More participants (176; 252 allowing 30% attrition) are needed to detect a 10.5 change in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score (80% power; minimum clinical difference = 5). Conclusion: A trial to test the clinical effectiveness (improvement in breathlessness) of cardiology-led palliative care is feasible

Extant diversity of bryophytes emerged from successive post-Mesozoic diversification bursts

Unraveling the macroevolutionary history of bryophytes, which arose soon after the origin of land plants but exhibit substantially lower species richness than the more recently derived angiosperms, has been challenged by the scarce fossil record. Here we demonstrate that overall estimates of net species diversification are approximately half those reported in ferns and similar to 30% those described for angiosperms. Nevertheless, statistical rate analyses on time-calibrated large-scale phylogenies reveal that mosses and liverworts underwent bursts of diversification since the mid-Mesozoic. The diversification rates further increase in specific lineages towards the Cenozoic to reach, in the most recently derived lineages, values that are comparable to those reported in angiosperms. This suggests that low diversification rates do not fully account for current patterns of bryophyte species richness, and we hypothesize that, as in gymnosperms, the low extant bryophyte species richness also results from massive extinctions.Assembling the Tree of Life programme at NSF; NSF [EF-0531730-002, EF-0531680, EF-0531750]; Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division; BeiPD-cofund Marie Curie fellowshipinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio