Variability, trends and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of −0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ∼ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns

Measurement of post-lens tear thickness.

PURPOSE: A method to measure the tear film beneath a soft contact lens, referred to as post-lens tear thickness (PLTT), would have many applications to contact lens research. In this study a noninvasive technique for measuring the PLTT is presented. METHODS: The feasibility of measuring the tear layer by optical pachometry was first assessed using a model eye. The baseline corneal thickness (B) of both eyes of 21 subjects was measured, etafilcon-A ionic disposable soft contact lenses (58% water) were inserted, and the total thickness (T) of the cornea, contact lens, and PLTT were measured. After the pachometry readings the lenses were removed and their center thickness (C) determined. The PLTT was calculated using the equation: PLTT = T-(B+C). Two sets of measurements of T were performed at 15 and 25 minutes after lens insertion. The entire procedure was repeated at a second visit. RESULTS: The pachometry measurements of the small aqueous reservoir between the model eye and the lens closely matched those obtained by direct microscopic measurement. For human PLTT, the mean values (and 95% confidence intervals) for right eyes on visits 1 and 2 were 11 (8, 13) and 12 (10, 15) microm, respectively, and for left eyes were 12 (10, 15) and 11 microm (8, 14) microm, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to measure the post-lens tear thickness using optical pachometry. The variability between repeated measurements suggests that with careful sample size planning, the technique is sufficiently precise to be useful in group assessments of PLTT

Linkages between Arctic summer circulation regimes and regional sea ice anomalies

The downward trend in overall Arctic summer sea ice extent has been substantial, particularly in the last few decades. Departures in ice extent from year to year can be very large, however, in part due to the high variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns. Anomalies in the Pacific sector ice cover can be partially compensated by anomalies of opposite sign in the Atlantic sector. An assessment of linkages between summer atmospheric patterns and sectoral anomalies in the area of maximum open water north of 70°N demonstrates that there is asymmetry in the mechanisms. Years with low ice extent and high open water fraction are uniformly associated with positive temperature anomalies and southerly flow in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. However, years with high extent and low open water fraction in both sectors reveal two dominant mechanisms. Some years with anomalously low maximum open water fraction are associated with negative temperature anomalies and southerly transport—a cool summer pattern that allows ice to persist over larger areas. However, other low open water years are characterized by an “ice factory” mechanism, whereby—even when melting—ice cover is continually replenished by advection from the north

Statistical Shape Analysis using Kernel PCA

©2006 SPIE--The International Society for Optical Engineering. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic reproduction and distribution, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper are prohibited. The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.641417DOI:10.1117/12.641417Presented at Image Processing Algorithms and Systems, Neural Networks, and Machine Learning, 16-18 January 2006, San Jose, California, USA.Mercer kernels are used for a wide range of image and signal processing tasks like de-noising, clustering, discriminant analysis etc. These algorithms construct their solutions in terms of the expansions in a high-dimensional feature space F. However, many applications like kernel PCA (principal component analysis) can be used more effectively if a pre-image of the projection in the feature space is available. In this paper, we propose a novel method to reconstruct a unique approximate pre-image of a feature vector and apply it for statistical shape analysis. We provide some experimental results to demonstrate the advantages of kernel PCA over linear PCA for shape learning, which include, but are not limited to, ability to learn and distinguish multiple geometries of shapes and robustness to occlusions

Screening for falls risk in the older person with haemophilia – a pilot study

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Exploring the significance of falls in the everyday lives of the older person with haemophilia

Sin financiación3.569 JCR (2016) Q2, 22/70 HematologyUE

Exploiting Polyhedral Symmetries in Social Choice

A large amount of literature in social choice theory deals with quantifying the probability of certain election outcomes. One way of computing the probability of a specific voting situation under the Impartial Anonymous Culture assumption is via counting integral points in polyhedra. Here, Ehrhart theory can help, but unfortunately the dimension and complexity of the involved polyhedra grows rapidly with the number of candidates. However, if we exploit available polyhedral symmetries, some computations become possible that previously were infeasible. We show this in three well known examples: Condorcet's paradox, Condorcet efficiency of plurality voting and in Plurality voting vs Plurality Runoff.Comment: 14 pages; with minor improvements; to be published in Social Choice and Welfar

Surface Crystallization of Liquid Au-Si and Its Impact on Catalysis.

In situ transmission electron microscopy reveals that an atomically thin crystalline phase at the surface of liquid Au-Si is stable over an unexpectedly wide range of conditions. By measuring the surface structure as a function of liquid temperature and composition, a simple thermodynamic model is developed to explain the stability of the ordered phase. The presence of surface ordering plays a key role in the pathway by which the Au-Si eutectic solidifies and also dramatically affects the catalytic properties of the liquid, explaining the anomalously slow growth kinetics of Si nanowires at low temperature. A strategy to control the presence of the surface phase is discussed, using it as a tool in designing strategies for nanostructure growth

The Berkeley Contact Lens Extended Wear Study. Part I : Study design and conduct.

ObjectiveThe primary aim of the Berkeley Contact Lens Extended Wear Study (CLEWS) was to test the hypotheses that extended wear of rigid gas-permeable (RGP) contact lenses with greater oxygen permeability (Dk) reduces the incidence of contact lens-associated keratopathy (CLAK) and increases the survival rate in RGP extended wear (EW). In this article we describe the clinical trial design in detail, present the results of subject recruitment and retention, and provide the baseline demographic and ocular characteristics of the CLEWS subjects, whose data will be analyzed to address the study aims in a companion article.DesignA randomized, concurrently controlled clinical trial.InterventionSubjects were fitted with day wear (DW) high-Dk RGP lenses and then adapted to EW. Subjects who adapted to EW were then randomly assigned to either high- or medium-Dk RGP lenses for 12 months of 6-nights/week EW.Main outcome measuresSlit-lamp assessment and grading of 17 possible keratopathies, measurement of refractive error and corneal curvature, and symptoms. Follow-up data were collected every 3 months.ResultsFrom 545 subjects entering the DW adaptation phase, 201 adapted to EW and were randomly assigned to medium- or high-Dk lenses for 12 months of EW. The baseline characteristics of the two study groups were similar and did not differ from the 344 DW subjects who failed to adapt to EW. The distributions of oxygen transmissibility for the two study groups were disjoint, indicating that each group received distinctly different levels of hypoxia.ConclusionsWe show that CLEWS was appropriately designed to address the study hypotheses, was conducted with regard for the safety of the subjects, and adhered to rigorous protocols designed to control for bias and ensure the integrity of study data. We establish the internal validity of between-group statistical comparisons and characterize our study population to permit informed evaluation of the applicability of our results to the contact lens-wearing population in general

The Berkeley Contact Lens Extended Wear Study. Part II : Clinical results.

ObjectiveTo describe the principal clinical outcomes associated with 12 months use of rigid gas-permeable (RGP) extended wear contact lenses and address two primary study questions: (1) does extended wear (EW) of high oxygen transmissibility (Dk/t) RGP lenses reduce the incidence of ocular complications, and (2) does the wearing of high-Dk/t lenses reduce the rate of failure to maintain 6-night RGPEW over 12 months?DesignA randomized, concurrently controlled clinical trial.InterventionSubjects who adapted to EW with high Dk (oxygen permeability) RGP lenses were randomized to either high Dk or medium-Dk RGP lenses for 12 months of 6-night EW.Main outcome measuresContact lens-associated keratopathies (CLAK), changes in refractive error and corneal curvature, and survival in EW.ResultsTwo hundred one subjects were randomized to medium or high-Dk lenses for 12 months of EW. Sixty-two percent of the subjects in each group completed 12 months of EW; however, the probability of failure was significantly greater for the medium-Dk group. Although the risk of complications was similar for the two groups, the number of CLAK events that led to termination were 16 versus 5 for the medium-Dk and high-Dk groups, respectively. This suggests that the type of adverse response or the inability to reverse an adverse event was different for the group being exposed to the lower oxygen dose.ConclusionsThe level of oxygen available to the cornea has a significant impact on maintaining successful RGP extended contact lens wear, but not on the initial onset of CLAK. The number of clinical events leading to termination was substantially higher for the medium Dk group, which suggests that corneal hypoxia is an important factor in the development of CLAK. Although overnight contact lens wear should be recommended with caution and carefully monitored for early detection of ocular complications, it appears that high-Dk RGP lenses can be a safe and effective treatment for correction of refractive error for most individuals who can adapt to EW