Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model

BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs

Chronic hypothermia and energy expenditure in a neurodevelopmentally disabled patient: a case study

Hypothermia is defined as a core body temperature of \u3c35°C and results in a decrease in measured resting energy expenditure. A 51-year-old mentally disabled patient experienced chronic hypothermia from neurologic sequelae. Because of her continued weight gain and increased body fat in the presence of presumed hypocaloric nutrition, indirect calorimetry measurements were performed twice in a 3-month period. The resting energy expenditure measurements prompted a reduction of her daily caloric intake to prevent further overfeeding. Hypothermia reduces oxygen consumption and, as a consequence, decreases resting energy expenditure. In patients for whom chronic hypothermia is a problem, nutritional intake must be adjusted to prevent overfeeding, excessive weight gain, and the long-term complications of an excess of total calories

Early-Life Determinants of Total and HDL Cholesterol Concentrations in 8-Year-Old Children; The PIAMA Birth Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Adult cholesterol concentrations might be influenced by early-life factors, such as breastfeeding and birth weight, referred to as "early programming". How such early factors exert their influence over the life course is still poorly understood. Evidence from studies in children and adolescents is scarce and conflicting. We investigated the influence of 6 different perinatal risk factors on childhood total and HDL cholesterol concentrations and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio measured at 8 years of age, and additionally we studied the role of the child's current Body Mass Index (BMI). METHODS: Anthropometric measures and blood plasma samples were collected during a medical examination in 751 8-year-old children participating in the prospective Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) birth cohort study. Linear and logistic regression were performed to estimate associations of total and HDL cholesterol concentrations with breastfeeding, birth weight, infant weight gain, maternal overweight before pregnancy, gestational diabetes and maternal smoking during pregnancy, taking into account the child's current BMI. RESULTS: Linear regressions showed an association between total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio and maternal pre-pregnancy overweight (β = 0.15, Confidence Interval 95% (CI): 0.02, 0.28), rapid infant weight gain (β = 0.13, 95%CI: 0.01, 0.26), and maternal smoking during pregnancy (β = 0.14, 95%CI: 0.00, 0.29). These associations were partly mediated by the child's BMI. CONCLUSION: Total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in 8-year-old children was positively associated with maternal pre-pregnancy overweight, maternal smoking during pregnancy and rapid infant weight gain

Deep-Inelastic Inclusive ep Scattering at Low x and a Determination of alpha_s

A precise measurement of the inclusive deep-inelastic e^+p scattering cross section is reported in the kinematic range 1.5<= Q^2 <=150 GeV^2 and 3*10^(-5)<= x <=0.2. The data were recorded with the H1 detector at HERA in 1996 and 1997, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20 pb^(-1). The double differential cross section, from which the proton structure function F_2(x,Q^2) and the longitudinal structure function F_L(x,Q^2) are extracted, is measured with typically 1% statistical and 3% systematic uncertainties. The measured partial derivative (dF_2(x,Q^2)/dln Q^2)_x is observed to rise continuously towards small x for fixed Q^2. The cross section data are combined with published H1 measurements at high Q^2 for a next-to-leading order DGLAP QCD analysis.The H1 data determine the gluon momentum distribution in the range 3*10^(-4)<= x <=0.1 to within an experimental accuracy of about 3% for Q^2 =20 GeV^2. A fit of the H1 measurements and the mu p data of the BCDMS collaboration allows the strong coupling constant alpha_s and the gluon distribution to be simultaneously determined. A value of alpha _s(M_Z^2)=0.1150+-0.0017 (exp) +0.0009-0.0005 (model) is obtained in NLO, with an additional theoretical uncertainty of about +-0.005, mainly due to the uncertainty of the renormalisation scale.Comment: 68 pages, 24 figures and 18 table

Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life: protocol for a community-based randomised controlled trial of a multi-modal exercise and osteoporosis education program for older adults at risk of falls and fractures

Background : Osteoporosis affects over 220 million people worldwide, and currently there is no \u27cure\u27 for the disease. Thus, there is a need to develop evidence-based, safe and acceptable prevention strategies at the population level that target multiple risk factors for fragility fractures to reduce the health and economic burden of the condition. Methods : The \u27Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life\u27 study will investigate the effectiveness and feasibility of a multi-component targeted exercise, osteoporosis education/awareness and behavioural change program for improving bone health and muscle function, and reducing falls risk in community-dwelling older adults at an increased risk of fracture. Men and women aged 60 years or above will participate in an 18-month randomised controlled trial comprising a 12-month structured and supervised community-based program and a 6-month \u27research to practise\u27 translational phase. Participants will be randomly assigned to either the \u27Osteo-cise\u27 intervention or a self-management control group. The intervention will comprise a multi-modal exercise program incorporating high velocity progressive resistance training, moderate impact weight-bearing exercise and high challenging balance exercises performed three times weekly at local community-based fitness centres. A behavioural change program will be used to enhance exercise adoption and adherence to the program. Community-based osteoporosis education seminars will be conducted to improve participant knowledge and understanding of the risk factors and preventative measures for osteoporosis, falls and fractures. The primary outcomes measures, to be collected at baseline, 6, 12, and 18 months, will include DXA-derived hip and spine bone mineral density measurements and functional muscle power (timed stair-climb test). Secondary outcomes measures include: MRI-assessed distal femur and proximal tibia trabecular bone micro-architecture, lower limb and back maximal muscle strength, balance and function (four square step test, functional reach test, timed up-and-go test and 30-second sit-to-stand), falls incidence and health-related quality of life. Cost-effectiveness will also be assessed. Discussion : The findings from the Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life study will provide new information on the efficacy of a targeted multi-modal community-based exercise program incorporating high velocity resistance training, together with an osteoporosis education and behavioural change program for improving multiple risk factors for falls and fracture in older adults at risk of fragility fracture.<br /

The importance of the exposome and allostatic load in the planetary health paradigm

In 1980, Jonas Salk (1914-1995) encouraged professionals in anthropology and related disciplines to consider the interconnections between "planetary health," sociocultural changes associated with technological advances, and the biology of human health. The concept of planetary health emphasizes that human health is intricately connected to the health of natural systems within the Earth's biosphere; experts in physiological anthropology have illuminated some of the mechanisms by which experiences in natural environments (or the built environment) can promote or detract from health. For example, shinrin-yoku and related research (which first emerged from Japan in the 1990s) helped set in motion international studies that have since examined physiological responses to time spent in natural and/or urban environments. However, in order to advance such findings into planetary health discourse, it will be necessary to further understand how these biological responses (inflammation and the collective of allostatic load) are connected to psychological constructs such as nature relatedness, and pro-social/environmental attitudes and behaviors. The exposome refers to total environmental exposures-detrimental and beneficial-that can help predict biological responses of the organism to environment over time. Advances in "omics" techniques-metagenomics, proteomics, metabolomics-and systems biology are allowing researchers to gain unprecedented insight into the physiological ramifications of human behavior. Objective markers of stress physiology and microbiome research may help illuminate the personal, public, and planetary health consequences of "extinction of experience." At the same time, planetary health as an emerging multidisciplinary concept will be strengthened by input from the perspectives of physiological anthropology.Peer reviewe

The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants:A Benefit-Cost Analysis

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the conomic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia

Head Circumference of Infants Born to Mothers with Different Educational Levels; The Generation R Study

Objective: Head circumference (HC) reflect growth and development of the brain in early childhood. It is unknown whether socioeconomic differences in HC are present in early childhood. Therefore, we investigated the association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and HC in early childhood, and potential underlying factors. Methods: The study focused on Dutch children born between April 2002 and January 2006 who participated in The Generation R Study, a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Maternal educational level was used as indicator of SEP. HC measures were concentrated around 1, 3, 6 and 11 months. Associations and explanatory factors were investigated using linear regression analysis, adjusted for potential mediators. Results: The study included 3383 children. At 1, 3 and 6 months of age, children of mothers with a low education had a smaller HC than those with a high education (difference at 1 month: -0.42 SD; 95% CI: -0.54,-0.30; at 3 months: -0.27 SD; 95% CI -0.40,-0.15; and at 6 months: -0.13 SD; 95% CI -0.24,-0.02). Child's length and weight could only partially explain the smaller HC at 1 and 3 months of age. At 6 months, birth weight, gestational age and parental height explained the HC differences. At 11 months, no HC differences were found. Conclusion: Educational inequalities in HC in the first 6 months of life can be mainly explained by pregnancy-related factors, such as birth weight and gestational age. These findings further support public health policies to prevent negative birth outcomes in lower socioeconomic groups

Polymorphisms of Serotonin Receptor 2A and 2C Genes and COMT in Relation to Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND:Candidate genes of psychological importance include 5HT2A, 5HT2C, and COMT, implicated in the serotonin, noradrenaline and dopamine pathways, which also may be involved in regulation of energy balance. We investigated the associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of these genes with obesity and metabolic traits. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:In a population of 166 200 young men examined at the draft boards, obese men (n = 726, BMI> or =31.0 kg/m(2)) and a randomly selected group (n = 831) were re-examined at two surveys at mean ages 46 and 49 years (S-46, S-49). Anthropometric, physiological and biochemical measures were available. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess age-adjusted odds ratios. No significant associations were observed of 5HT2A rs6311, 5HT2C rs3813929 and COMT rs4680 with obesity, except that COMT rs4680 GG-genotype was associated with fat-BMI (OR = 1.08, CI = 1.01-1.16). The SNPs were associated with a number of physiological variables; most importantly 5HT2C rs3813929 T-allele was associated with glucose (OR = 4.56, CI = 1.13-18.4) and acute insulin response (OR = 0.65, CI = 0.44-0.94) in S-49. COMT rs4680 GG-genotype was associated with glucose (OR = 1.04, CI = 1.00-1.09). Except for an association between 5HT2A rs6311 and total-cholesterol at both surveys, significant in S-46 (OR = 2.66, CI = 1.11-6.40), no significant associations were observed for the other phenotypes. Significant associations were obtained when combined genotype of 5HT2C rs3813929 and COMT rs4680 were examined in relation to BMI (OR = 1.12, CI = 1.03-1.21), fat-BMI (OR = 1.22, CI = 1.08-1.38), waist (OR = 1.13, CI = 1.04-1.22), and cholesterol (OR = 5.60, CI = 0.99-31.4). Analyses of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) revealed, a 12.3% increased frequency of 5HT2C rs3813929 T-allele and an 11.6% increased frequency of COMT rs4680 GG-genotype in individuals with IGT or T2D (chi(2), p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively). Examination of the combined genotypes of 5HT2C and COMT showed a 34.0% increased frequency of IGT or T2D (chi(2), p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS:The findings lend further support to the involvement of serotonin, noradrenaline and dopamine pathways on obesity and glucose homeostasis, in particular when combined genotype associations are explored

Plant trait and vegetation data along a 1314 m elevation gradient with fire history in Puna grasslands, Per\ufa

\ua9 2024. The Author(s). Alpine grassland vegetation supports globally important biodiversity and ecosystems that are increasingly threatened by climate warming and other environmental changes. Trait-based approaches can support understanding of vegetation responses to global change drivers and consequences for ecosystem functioning. In six sites along a 1314 m elevational gradient in Puna grasslands in the Peruvian Andes, we collected datasets on vascular plant composition, plant functional traits, biomass, ecosystem fluxes, and climate data over three years. The data were collected in the wet and dry season and from plots with different fire histories. We selected traits associated with plant resource use, growth, and life history strategies (leaf area, leaf dry/wet mass, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf C, N, P content, C and N isotopes). The trait dataset contains 3,665 plant records from 145 taxa, 54,036 trait measurements (increasing the trait data coverage of the regional flora by 420%) covering 14 traits and 121 plant taxa (ca. 40% of which have no previous publicly available trait data) across 33 families