Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

Monthly quasi-periodic eruptions from repeated stellar disruption by a massive black hole

In recent years, searches of archival X-ray data have revealed galaxies exhibiting nuclear quasi-periodic eruptions with periods of several hours. These are reminiscent of the tidal disruption of a star by a supermassive black hole. The repeated, partial stripping of a white dwarf in an eccentric orbit around an ~105 M⊙ black hole provides an attractive model. A separate class of periodic nuclear transients, with much longer timescales, have recently been discovered optically and may arise from the partial stripping of a main-sequence star by an ~107 M⊙ black hole. No clear connection between these classes has been made. We present the discovery of an X-ray nuclear transient that shows quasi-periodic outbursts with a period of weeks. We discuss possible origins for the emission and propose that this system bridges the two existing classes outlined above. This discovery was made possible by the rapid identification, dissemination and follow-up of an X-ray transient found by the new live Swift-XRT transient detector, demonstrating the importance of low-latency, sensitive searches for X-ray transients

Carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios of urine and faeces as novel nutritional biomarkers of meat and fish intake

Purpose Meat and fish consumption are associated with changes in the risk of chronic diseases. Intake is mainly assessed using self-reporting, as no true quantitative nutritional biomarker is available. The measurement of plasma fatty acids, often used as an alternative, is expensive and time-consuming. As meat and fish differ in their stable isotope ratios, δ13C and δ15N have been proposed as biomarkers. However, they have never been investigated in controlled human dietary intervention studies. Objective In a short-term feeding study, we investigated the suitability of δ13C and δ15N in blood, urine and faeces as biomarkers of meat and fish intake. Methods The dietary intervention study (n = 14) followed a randomised cross-over design with three eight-day dietary periods (meat, fish and half-meat–half-fish). In addition, 4 participants completed a vegetarian control period. At the end of each period, 24-h urine, fasting venous blood and faeces were collected and their δ13C and δ15N analysed. Results There was a significant difference between diets in isotope ratios in faeces and urine samples, but not in blood samples (Kruskal–Wallis test, p < 0.0001). In pairwise comparisons, δ13C and δ15N were significantly higher in urine and faecal samples following a fish diet when compared with all other diets, and significantly lower following a vegetarian diet. There was no significant difference in isotope ratio between meat and half-meat–half-fish diets for blood, urine or faecal samples. Conclusions The results of this study show that urinary and faecal δ13C and δ15N are suitable candidate biomarkers for short-term meat and fish intake

Binary orbits as the driver of γ-ray emission and mass ejection in classical novae

Classical novae are the most common astrophysical thermonuclear explosions, occurring on the surfaces of white dwarf stars accreting gas from companions in binary star systems. Novae typically expel �10,000 solar masses of material at velocities exceeding 1,000 km/s. However, the mechanism of mass ejection in novae is poorly understood, and could be dominated by the impulsive flash of the thermonuclear runaway, prolonged optically thick winds, or binary interaction with the nova envelope. Classical novae are now routinely detected in GeV gamma-rays, suggesting that relativistic particles are accelerated by strong shocks in nova ejecta. Here we present high-resolution imaging of the gamma-ray-emitting nova V959 Mon at radio wavelengths, showing that its ejecta were shaped by binary motion: some gas was expelled rapidly along the poles as a wind from the white dwarf, while denser material drifted out along the equatorial plane, propelled by orbital motion. At the interface between the equatorial and polar regions, we observe synchrotron emission indicative of shocks and relativistic particle acceleration, thereby pinpointing the location of gamma-ray production. Binary shaping of the nova ejecta and associated internal shocks are expected to be widespread among novae, explaining why many novae are gamma-ray emitters

Event-related alpha suppression in response to facial motion

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.While biological motion refers to both face and body movements, little is known about the visual perception of facial motion. We therefore examined alpha wave suppression as a reduction in power is thought to reflect visual activity, in addition to attentional reorienting and memory processes. Nineteen neurologically healthy adults were tested on their ability to discriminate between successive facial motion captures. These animations exhibited both rigid and non-rigid facial motion, as well as speech expressions. The structural and surface appearance of these facial animations did not differ, thus participants decisions were based solely on differences in facial movements. Upright, orientation-inverted and luminance-inverted facial stimuli were compared. At occipital and parieto-occipital regions, upright facial motion evoked a transient increase in alpha which was then followed by a significant reduction. This finding is discussed in terms of neural efficiency, gating mechanisms and neural synchronization. Moreover, there was no difference in the amount of alpha suppression evoked by each facial stimulus at occipital regions, suggesting early visual processing remains unaffected by manipulation paradigms. However, upright facial motion evoked greater suppression at parieto-occipital sites, and did so in the shortest latency. Increased activity within this region may reflect higher attentional reorienting to natural facial motion but also involvement of areas associated with the visual control of body effectors. © 2014 Girges et al

An Integrated-Photonics Optical-Frequency Synthesizer

Integrated-photonics microchips now enable a range of advanced functionalities for high-coherence applications such as data transmission, highly optimized physical sensors, and harnessing quantum states, but with cost, efficiency, and portability much beyond tabletop experiments. Through high-volume semiconductor processing built around advanced materials there exists an opportunity for integrated devices to impact applications cutting across disciplines of basic science and technology. Here we show how to synthesize the absolute frequency of a lightwave signal, using integrated photonics to implement lasers, system interconnects, and nonlinear frequency comb generation. The laser frequency output of our synthesizer is programmed by a microwave clock across 4 THz near 1550 nm with 1 Hz resolution and traceability to the SI second. This is accomplished with a heterogeneously integrated III/V-Si tunable laser, which is guided by dual dissipative-Kerr-soliton frequency combs fabricated on silicon chips. Through out-of-loop measurements of the phase-coherent, microwave-to-optical link, we verify that the fractional-frequency instability of the integrated photonics synthesizer matches the $7.0*10^{-13}$ reference-clock instability for a 1 second acquisition, and constrain any synthesis error to $7.7*10^{-15}$ while stepping the synthesizer across the telecommunication C band. Any application of an optical frequency source would be enabled by the precision optical synthesis presented here. Building on the ubiquitous capability in the microwave domain, our results demonstrate a first path to synthesis with integrated photonics, leveraging low-cost, low-power, and compact features that will be critical for its widespread use.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Chandra and Hubble Space Telescope observations of dark gamma-ray bursts and their host galaxies

We present a study of 21 dark gamma-ray burst (GRB) host galaxies, predominantly using X-ray afterglows obtained with the Chandra X-Ray Observatory (CXO) to precisely locate the burst in deep Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging of the burst region. The host galaxies are well-detected in F160W in all but one case and in F606W imaging in 60 per cent of cases. We measure magnitudes and perform a morphological analysis of each galaxy. The asymmetry, concentration, and ellipticity of the dark burst hosts are compared against the host galaxies of optically bright GRBs. In agreement with other studies, we find that dark GRB hosts are redder and more luminous than the bulk of the GRB host population. The distribution of projected spatial offsets for dark GRBs from their host galaxy centroids is comparable to that of optically bright bursts. The dark GRB hosts are physically larger, more massive and redder, but are morphologically similar to the hosts of bright GRBs in terms of concentration and asymmetry. Our analysis constrains the fraction of high redshift (z > 5) GRBs in the sample to 14 per cent, implying an upper limit for the whole long-GRB population of ≤4.4 per cent. If dust is the primary cause of afterglow darkening amongst dark GRBs, the measured extinction may require a clumpy dust component in order to explain the observed offset and ellipticity distributions

Reduction of the ATPase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1) leads to visual impairment in vertebrates

In vertebrates, mitochondria are tightly preserved energy producing organelles, which sustain nervous system development and function. The understanding of proteins that regulate their homoeostasis in complex animals is therefore critical and doing so via means of systemic analysis pivotal to inform pathophysiological conditions associated with mitochondrial deficiency. With the goal to decipher the role of the ATPase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1) in brain development, we employed the zebrafish as elected model reporting that the Atpif1a−/− zebrafish mutant, pinotage (pnttq209), which lacks one of the two IF1 paralogous, exhibits visual impairment alongside increased apoptotic bodies and neuroinflammation in both brain and retina. This associates with increased processing of the dynamin-like GTPase optic atrophy 1 (OPA1), whose ablation is a direct cause of inherited optic atrophy. Defects in vision associated with the processing of OPA1 are specular in Atpif1−/− mice thus confirming a regulatory axis, which interlinks IF1 and OPA1 in the definition of mitochondrial fitness and specialised brain functions. This study unveils a functional relay between IF1 and OPA1 in central nervous system besides representing an example of how the zebrafish model could be harnessed to infer the activity of mitochondrial proteins during development

Interviews with Irish healthcare workers from different disciplines about palliative care for people with Parkinson’s disease: a definite role but uncertainty around terminology and timing

Background: An integrated palliative care approach is recommended in all life-limiting diseases, including Parkinson’s disease (PD). However research shows that people with PD have unmet palliative care needs. The study aimed to explore multidisciplinary healthcare workers’ (HCWs) views on palliative care for people with PD, identifying perceived barriers and facilitators. Methods: A qualitative design was used; data was analysed using Thematic Analysis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 HCWs, working either with people with PD or in a palliative care setting in Ireland. Results: A number of perceived barriers were evident helping to account for the previously reported unmet palliative care needs in PD. A lack of education about PD and palliative care meant that HCWs were unsure of the appropriateness of referral, and patients and carers weren’t equipped with information to seek palliative care. A lack of communication between PD and palliative care specialists was seen to impede collaboration between the disciplines. Uncertainty about the timing of palliative care meant that it was often not introduced until a crisis point, despite the recognised need for early planning due to increased prevalence of dementia. Conclusions: Most HCWs recognised a need for palliative care for people with PD; however several barriers to implementing a palliative care approach in this population need to be addressed. Implications for clinical practice and policy include the need for an integrated model of care, and education for all HCWs, patients, carers, and the public on both the nature of advanced PD, and the potential of palliative care in support of patients and their family members

Vasospasm in children with traumatic brain injury

To determine the incidence of vasospasm in children who have suffered moderate to severe traumatic brain injury. A prospective observational pilot study in a 24-bed pediatric intensive care unit was performed. Twenty-two children aged 7 months to 14 years with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury as indicated by Glasgow Coma Score ≤12 and abnormal head imaging were enrolled. Transcranial Doppler ultrasound was performed to identify and follow vasospasm. Patients with a flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery (MCA) &gt;120 cm/s were considered to have vasospasm by criterion A. If flow velocity in the MCA was &gt;120 cm/s and the Lindegaard ratio was &gt;3, vasospasm was considered to be present by criterion B. Patients with basilar artery (BA) flow velocity &gt;90 cm/s met criteria for vasospasm in the posterior circulation (criterion C). In the MCA, 45.5% of patients developed vasospasm based on criterion A and 36.3% developed vasospasm based on criterion B. A total of 18.2% of patients developed vasospasm in the BA by criterion C. Typical day of onset of vasospasm was hospital day 2–3. Duration of vasospasm in the anterior circulation was 4 ± 2 days based on criteria A and 3 ± 1 days based on criteria B. Vasospasm in the posterior circulation persisted for 2 ± 1 days. Using the adult criteria outlined above to diagnose vasospasm, a significant proportion of pediatric patients who have suffered moderate to severe traumatic brain injury develop vasospasm during the course of their treatment