QCD analysis of the diffractive structure function F_2^{D(3)}

The proton diffractive structure function $F_2^{D(3)}$ measured in the H1 and ZEUS experiments at HERA is analyzed in terms of both Regge phenomenology and perturbative QCD evolution. A new method determines the values of the Regge intercepts in ``hard'' diffraction, confirming a higher value of the Pomeron intercept than for soft physics. The data are well described by a QCD analysis in which point-like parton distributions, evolving according to the DGLAP equations, are assigned to the leading and sub-leading Regge exchanges. The gluon distributions are found to be quite different for H1 and ZEUS. A {\it global fit} analysis, where a higher twist component is taken from models, allows us to use data in the whole available range in diffractive mass and gives a stable answer for the leading twist contribution. We give sets of quark and gluon parton distributions for the Pomeron, and predictions for the charm and the longitudinal proton diffractive structure function from the QCD fit. An extrapolation to the Tevatron range is compared with CDF data on single diffraction. Conclusions on factorization breaking depend critically whether H1 (strong violation) or ZEUS (compatibility at low $\beta$) fits are taken into account.Comment: 24 page

Cronin effect for protons and pions in pA collisions

Pions and protons production cross-sections are analyzed in proton-proton and proton-nucleus collisions at the RHIC energy at midrapidity. We employ the pQCD factorization scheme supplemented with the color-dipole formalism to investigate the Cronin effect. We calculate the broadening in the color-dipole approach for different centralities. Our main goal is to investigate, in a parameter-free manner within a unified framework, how much of the cronin effect for both pions and baryons comes from the transverse momentum broadening due to initial partons multi-scatterings. We conclude that final-state effects in pA collisions are important. Uncertainties in nuclear shadowing of various parton distributions and parton fragmentation functions are also discussed.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure

Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions

Virtual photon fragmentation functions

We introduce operator definitions for virtual photon fragmentation functions, which are needed for reliable calculations of Drell-Yan transverse momentum ($Q_T$) distributions when $Q_T$ is much larger than the invariant mass $Q$. We derive the evolution equations for these fragmentation functions. We calculate the leading order evolution kernels for partons to fragment into a unpolarized as well as a polarized virtual photon. We find that fragmentation functions to a longitudinally polarized virtual photon are most important at small $z$, and the fragmentation functions to a transversely polarized virtual photon dominate the large $z$ region. We discuss the implications of this finding to the J/$\psi$ mesons' polarization at large transverse momentum.Comment: Latex, 19 pages including 6 figures. An error in the first version has been corrected, and references update

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval

Burden of Neurological Disorders across the US from 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance: Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. Objective: To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Exposures: Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. Main Outcome and Measure: Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95 uncertainty intervals) were calculated. Results: The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 95% uncertainty interval UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 95% UI, 2.43-2.68 million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 95% UI, 1.53-3.44 million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (-29.1% 95% UI, -32.4% to -25.8%); spinal cord injury prevalence (-38.5% 95% UI, -43.1% to -34.0%); meningitis prevalence (-44.8% 95% UI, -47.3% to -42.3%), deaths (-64.4% 95% UI, -67.7% to -50.3%), and DALYs (-66.9% 95% UI, -70.1% to -55.9%); and encephalitis DALYs (-25.8% 95% UI, -30.7% to -5.8%). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Conclusions and Relevance: There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.. © 2021 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

DEPTH PROFILING OF THE MAGNETIC HYPERFINE FIELD IN ULTRATHIN FILMS OF Fe USING MÖSSBAUER SPECTROSCOPY

Nous utilisons la spectroscopie Mösssbauer pour déterminer les champs hyperfins à des profondeurs différentes dans des couches minces de Fe. Les couches se composent de 56Fe avec une petite couche de 57Fe située à des profondeurs différentes dans les couches principales.Mössbauer spectroscopy has been used to determine the hyperfine fields and isomer shifts at different depths in a series of epitaxial Fe films all of about 60 Å thickness. The films were made of isotopically pure 56Fe with a thin probe layer of 57Fe placed at different depths